Plus/Minus and Baez’s strikeout problem

In Commentary And Analysis by dmick89

You all remember Phil Rogers and his beautiful plus/minus system he developed? Well, it’s time to to put it to use.

The other day I was reading the news and I read that the US had announced a successful airstrike against IS in which 15 militants, 4 tanks and 4 civilians were killed. That sounds like disastrous results to me, but who I am to question the wisdom of the United States Government. I realized that most of these hacks probably learned from the greats like Phil Rogers. That airstrike was successful only because its plus/minus was 15. It also probably cost a billion dollars, but the US has infinite wealth and no debt.

Javier Baez‘s +/- for strikeouts and walks: 80 (176 if you include AAA). I’ve been meaning to write more about him and this seems like as good a time as any.

I went over to Baseball Reference to get some data. I looked only at rookies, age 24 and under, since 1950 with a minimum of 150 plate appearances. The results were even less encouraging than I expected.

Below are the rookies with the highest strikeout rate.

Player Age Year PA BB% K% OPS+
Javier Baez 21 2014 229 7.0% 41.5% 51
Trayvon Robinson 23 2011 155 5.2% 39.4% 67
Gorman Thomas 22 1973 172 7.6% 35.7% 54
Josh Bell 23 2010 161 1.2% 32.9% 43
Jordan Schafer 22 2009 195 12.3% 32.8% 61
Darrel Chaney 21 1969 237 8.9% 32.2% 42
Brett Wallace 23 2010 159 7.5% 32.1% 69
Anthony Gose 21 2012 189 10.1% 31.2% 70
Phil Hiatt 24 1993 263 8.7% 31.2% 70
Kimera Bartee 23 1996 247 6.9% 31.2% 56
Arismendy Alcantara 22 2014 300 6.3% 31.0% 70
Anthony Rizzo 21 2011 153 15.7% 30.3% 51
Gabe Alvarez 24 1998 221 8.6% 29.5% 71
Sean Rodriguez 23 2008 187 9.1% 29.4% 56
Jeff Hamilton 22 1986 151 0.7% 28.7% 66
Shane Andrews 23 1995 241 6.6% 28.5% 67
Troy Glaus 21 1998 182 8.2% 28.0% 48
Lee Stevens 22 1990 275 6.9% 27.6% 73
Darrell Whitmore 24 1993 267 5.6% 27.0% 44
Aaron Hicks 23 2013 313 8.3% 26.8% 63
Jason Repko 24 2005 301 7.3% 26.7% 74
Craig Paquette 24 1993 409 2.9% 26.5% 71
Aramis Ramirez 20 1998 275 8.0% 26.2% 68
Franklin Stubbs 23 1984 245 8.6% 26.0% 74
Matt Williams 21 1987 266 4.9% 26.0% 54
Bud Zipfel 22 1961 190 7.9% 25.8% 72
Felix Escalona 23 2002 171 5.8% 25.7% 50
Carlos Gonzalez 22 2008 316 3.8% 25.7% 71
Luis Castillo 20 1996 180 7.8% 25.6% 69
Roberto Mejia 21 1993 248 5.2% 25.5% 68
Jeff Duncan 24 2003 166 9.6% 25.2% 44
Hank Blalock 21 2002 172 11.6% 25.1% 65
Justin Upton 19 2007 152 5.3% 25.0% 62
Larry Burright 24 1962 276 5.8% 24.7% 60
Gorkys Hernandez 24 2012 173 9.2% 24.3% 54
Amado Samuel 23 1962 224 4.9% 24.2% 48
Jhonny Peralta 21 2003 270 8.9% 24.1% 67
Chase d’Arnaud 24 2011 151 3.3% 23.8% 48
John Bateman 22 1963 434 4.8% 23.8% 71
Shane Monahan 23 1998 223 3.6% 23.8% 60
Alejandro De Aza 23 2007 158 3.8% 23.6% 50
Rich Murray 22 1980 206 4.9% 23.4% 69
Jeff Kunkel 22 1984 150 2.0% 23.3% 46
Denis Menke 21 1962 166 10.8% 22.9% 49
A.J. Hinch 24 1998 391 8.7% 22.8% 69
Gene Oliver 24 1959 181 3.9% 22.7% 72
Sandy Martinez 24 1995 200 4.0% 22.5% 58
Jose Castillo 23 2004 414 4.6% 22.5% 72
Phil Nevin 24 1995 179 11.7% 22.5% 44
Rene Tosoni 24 2011 189 9.0% 22.2% 70
Felix Pie 22 2007 194 7.2% 22.2% 52

Most of the players on the list are older and there’s a big difference between 24 and 21, but probably not all that much difference between 21 and 22.

It would be foolish to draw too many conclusions from this. 229 plate appearances is still a pretty small size, but at the same time it’s not so small. Baez’s walk rate is encouraging, but without significantly reducing his strikeouts, he doesn’t stand a chance. That said, the percentage above is almost certainly not his true strikeout rate.

Someone asked whether there was any reason to send Baez to AAA to start the season. Quite clearly, yes. Do I think they should? I’m not sure that’s an easy answer.

Baez was, without doubt, overwhelmed at the MLB level. Baez has also turned things around before. Anthony Rizzo is on that list and the Cubs own general manager said he was called up too soon and was sent to AAA Iowa after the Cubs acquired him. I think it’s a definitely possibility, but I also think it will depend on more than the numbers above. I also don’t think the Cubs will let him be as bad as long next year. The leash will only get shorter and shorter with him, and any player that plays as poorly early on.

I still think Baez has a shot to be a good player. I’ve never thought he was going to be a superstar. Too many strikeouts. The player I’m more concerned about is also on this list, Arismendy Alcantara. I thought he could be a solid, perhaps average or better player in the big leagues. I’m not so sure now even though his ISO was higher than Baez’s.

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