New York Giants @ Chicago Bears (8:25 ET, NFL Network, 10/10/2013)

I'm going to do a different format for these games. I didn't really like the old one very much.

QB

Jay Cutler (198 DYAR, 4.7% DVOA, 68.9 QBR, 1,295 yards)
Eli Manning (fuck this guy) (-181 DYAR, -24.4% DVOA, 34.2 QBR, 1,338 yards)

Eli Manning is my least favorite player in all of sports. Growing up, I was a Chargers fan for some reason (I started really following football in 2000, and they were the worst team in the league that year. I also LOVED LT). When Manning said he'd rather sit out a year than play for the Chargers, I was very, very angry. I hate that guy. 

Anyways, this is a clear victory for Cutler this season; however, historically, Manning is a well above-average QB and Cutler is always prone to the total shit game.

RB

Matt Forte (35 DYAR, 2.1% DVOA, 80 carries/377 yards
David Wilson (-39 DYAR, -30.1% DVOA, 44 carries/ 144 yards

Clear victory for Mr. Forte here. Forte hasn't been as dynamic as he was previously; I think scheme has a lot to do with it.

TE

Martellus Bennett (11 DYAR, -3.0% DVOA, 37 catches/281 yards, 0 DPI)
Brandon Myers (-26 DYAR, -19.3% DVOA, 31 catches/208 yards, 0 DPI)

Myers is a crater at TE. Bennett has been average (which makes him the best TE of the past 5 years for Chicago), so he's the victor in this one.

WR

Alshon Jeffery (99 DYAR, 14.9% DVOA, 45 catches/429 yards, 1 fumble)
Brandon Marshall (98 DYAR, 13.5% DVOA, 47 catches/378 yards, 1 DPI/4 yards)
Victor Cruz (70 DYAR, 3.8% DVOA, 54 catches/473 yards, 2 DPI/53 yards)
Hakeem Nicks (66 DYAR, 9.7% DVOA, 37 catches/372 yards, 1/1)

This is a closer battle than you would think. I still give the nod to the Cruz/Nicks tandem, which might be the best #1/#2 combo in all of football. Cruz in particular is extremely dangerous, and he could torch whomever he lines up against tonight.

OL

Chicago: 18th in Run Blocking, 7th in Pass Protection
New York: 31th in Run Blocking, 23rd in Pass Protection

The Bears have definitely come down to earth after 3 strong performances. Against New Orleans, our offensive coordinator (Aaron Kromer) was fooled again and again on blitzes and exotic schemes, and that could be a blueprint for the Giants to follow. The right side of the line has looked a lot shakier, too; Kyle Long had a really bad upfield block which led to an ineligible receiver call. Despite everything I just said, the Giants' line is a LOT worse. They are probably the worst line in football (though Jacksonville has a strong case as well). 

DL/LB

Chicago: 8th in Run Blocking, 30th in Pass Protection
New York: 6th in Run Blocking, 32nd in Pass Protection

This is why I think the Giants will throw the sink at Chicago. They are NOT a talented unit at getting to the QB. They need to try something crazy, and it's been shown to work on the Bears this year. I'm not sure how crazy Perry Fewell usually gets, but I'd imagine lots of unique looks and CB blitzes and things like that. Both teams are going to rely on their QBs to get it done; unfortunately, if the Giants really do run, they can just point themselves at whatever direction Shea McClellin is at and he'll probably miss.

Secondary

Chicago vs #1 WR: 15th
Chicago vs #2 WR: 7th
Chicago vs #X WR: 14th
Chicago vs TE: 31st
Chicago vs RB: 10th

New York vs #1 WR: 9th
New York vs #2 WR: 3rd
New York vs #X WR: 17th
New York vs TE: 28th
New York vs RB: 3rd

Clearly the TEs are what should be featured here. Brandon Myers isn't very good, and Martellus Bennett is decent. This could be where the battle is won (though the Giants will have an easier time going over the top, ESPECIALLY with an ailing Tillman). 

Special Teams

Chicago: 15th
New York: 32nd

The Bears really miss Dave Toub. The special teams unit really hasn't been anything special this season, though Hester had a really nice game Week 2. The Giants are a dreadful team in every respect, especially on punt coverage. If Hester is going to break one this year, this might be his best chance (if they punt to him at all, that is). 

Prediction

I really don't think the Bears are much better than the Giants, but I think the Giants aren't as bad as their record says they are. The Bears should win this one at home, but it definitely wouldn't shock me if they lost.

Myles: Bears 27, Giants 21
Myles' Brother: Bears 41, Giants 10

(4-1 straight up, 2-2-1 ATS)

 

 

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