Looking at the potential NL Playoff rotations

In Commentary And Analysis, Major League Baseball, Playoffs by dmick89

I thought I’d take a look at the potential playoff rotations in the National League for fun. Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks and Dan Haren haven’t not been performing too great for the Cubs and it’s begun to feel as though it’s a weakness for the team, but there aren’t many teams that are five deep in their rotation. Hammel hasn’t performed well since returning from injury, but he was excellent before that.

K-BB% is one of my favorite stats. If a pitcher can strikeout a lot of batters and doesn’t walk many, he’s more than likely a very good pitcher. The Cubs come out looking pretty nice when comparing K-BB% across the rotations. ERA doesn’t always represent the talent level of the pitcher. Anyway, I included innings, strikeouts, walks, ERA, FIP and ZiPS rest of season ERA and FIP projections below. I used mlb.com’s depth charts to assist in putting together the rotations and then I did a little research and then used that information, as well as the stats to create the projected playoff rotation.

Current Season
Cubs IP K% BB% K-BB% ERA FIP
Jake Arrieta 183 26.8 6.2 20.6 2.11 2.51
Jon Lester 163 24.6 5.9 18.7 3.59 3.07
Jason Hammel 147 24.5 5.3 19.2 3.55 3.65
Kyle Hendricks 147.3 20.8 6 14.8 4.15 3.54
Current Season
Cardinals IP K% BB% K-BB% ERA FIP
Michael Wacha 147.7 20.6 6.2 14.5 2.69 3.27
Lance Lynn 93 23.5 8.4 15.1 2.80 3.29
Carlos Martinez 154.7 24.6 7.9 16.7 2.91 3.32
Jaime Garcia 93 18 5.6 12.4 2.03 3.04
Current Season
Pirates IP K% BB% K-BB% ERA FIP
Gerrit Cole 173.7 24 5.6 18.4 2.64 2.71
Francisco Liriano 158.7 25.7 9.5 16.2 3.40 3.32
A.J. Burnett 135.3 19.9 6.3 13.6 3.06 3.13
Charlie Morton 106.7 17.5 7 10.5 4.22 3.89
Current Season
Mets IP K% BB% K-BB% ERA FIP
Jacob deGrom 163 26.8 5.3 21.5 2.32 2.90
Matt Harvey 166.3 24 5.2 18.8 2.60 3.34
Noah Syndergaard 122.3 25.8 5.8 20 3.31 3.39
Jon Niese 157.7 15.5 7 8.5 4.17 4.45
Current Season
Dodgers IP K% BB% K-BB% ERA FIP
Zack Greinke 186.7 23.8 4.5 19.3 1.59 2.62
Clayton Kershaw 194 33.7 4.6 29.1 2.18 2.03
Brett Anderson 152.3 15.9 6.4 9.5 3.43 3.85
Alex Wood 154.3 17.9 7.8 10.2 3.67 3.59
Current Season
Giants IP K% BB% K-BB% ERA FIP
Madison Bumgarner 182.7 27.4 4.2 23.1 2.96 2.79
Jake Peavy 74 17.1 6.5 10.7 4.38 4.18
Tim Hudson 101.3 12.2 6 6.2 4.80 4.68
Chris Heston 149.3 18 7.8 10.2 3.56 3.80
Current Season
Nationals IP K% BB% K-BB% ERA FIP
Max Scherzer 184 29.9 3.6 26.4 2.89 2.75
Jordan Zimmerman 173 19.2 4.7 14.5 3.38 3.60
Stephen Strasburg 91 25.1 5.4 19.7 4.35 3.35
Gio Gonzalez 141.667 20.6 8.6 12 4.13 3.20

 

Current Season ZiPS RoS Projections
Cubs ERA FIP
Jake Arrieta 3.16 3.20
Jon Lester 3.17 3.21
Jason Hammel 3.79 3.76
Kyle Hendricks 3.64 3.62
Current Season ZiPS RoS Projections
Cardinals ERA FIP
Michael Wacha 3.40 3.44
Lance Lynn 3.48 3.51
Carlos Martinez 3.63 3.41
Jaime Garcia 3.53 3.41
Current Season ZiPS RoS Projections
Pirates ERA FIP
Gerrit Cole 3.23 3.10
Franciso Liriano 3.36 3.29
A.J. Burnett 3.84 3.59
Charlie Morton 3.91 3.90
Current Season ZiPS RoS Projections
Mets ERA FIP
Jacob deGrom 3.24 3.16
Matt Harvey 3.20 3.25
Noah Syndergaard 3.46 3.30
Jon Niese 4.08 4.04
Current Season ZiPS RoS Projections
Dodgers ERA FIP
Zack Greinke 2.94 3.04
Clayton Kershaw 2.09 2.25
Brett Anderson 3.77 3.64
Alex Wood 3.52 3.50
Current Season ZiPS RoS Projections
Giants ERA FIP
Madison Bumgarner 2.76 2.97
Jake Peavy 3.69 3.91
Tim Hundson 3.84 3.78
Chris Heston 3.73 3.82
Current Season ZiPS RoS Projections
Nationals ERA FIP
Max Scherzer 2.71 2.73
Jordan Zimmerman 3.38 3.47
Stephen Strasburg 3.07 3.02
Gio Gonzalez 3.50 3.43

I don’t think the Cubs have the best rotation in baseball by any means, but there’s not a team listed here that I don’t think the Cubs can match up well enough with in a short series. If you look at K-BB%, they’re one of the top 2 or 3 teams on this list. It would be nice if Jason Hammel could return to the good pitcher he was prior to injury. That would help considerably, but even if he doesn’t, the Cubs rotation is still in fine shape.

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