That's what 17-1 looks like, kids.
Cubs Post-Game Recap by Krusty the Klown
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I think CC has a legit shot at the HOF. He’s hurt right now, but that guy is a pitching machine. Plus he’s got a career fWAR of 59 going right now. I really think he will be in, barring some catastrophe that is just big enough to derail his career, but not big enough to earn him martyr status.
Verlander needs about 5 more seasons where he brings it like he has so far.
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/06/27/dewayne-wise-fools-umpire-yankee-stadium-into-thinking-he-made-spectacular-catch/?utm_medium=VPH&utm_source=topvph_sports&utm_campaign=321888
mb21 wrote:
*cough*
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/06/27/baffoe-time-for-expanded-mlb-instant-replay/
Lincecum isn’t broken! Hooray!
I’m not advocating for this. REPEAT: NOT advocating for this, but is there any chance the Cubs consider bullpenning F7 if this ugly streak keeps up for another start or two? Or do people think THoyer are in on F7 for the long haul?
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I say no to the bullpen test. This year is going no where. They need to assess what they have on hand. F7 is worth something if he can hack it as a starter, not much otherwise. However, they also need to find out if LaHair can hit lefites and if Soto is any good any more and where Baker hid those pictures and why did everyone get mad about the Old Style situation and when are the new Joe Mather 21 jerseys going on sale?
@ BubbaBiscuit:
See, that’s why I put the disclaimer there. Twice. I’m not arguing for or against doing it. I’m asking what people think the team might do, given that they haven’t shown a great amount of patience with the pitching staff.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I see him staying a starter as I think Garza and Dempster are probably gone eventually as well as Wells. They need bodies and no one in the minors seems to be making a case for his spot.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
Good point. Yeah, if those either or both of them are dealt, they kind of have to leave him in there. Hadn’t thought of that.
I think Wells is gone now if they can’t trade him. I don’t see him accepting a minor league assignment.
Would anyone like to see Moyer close out his career as a Cub?
Actually Wells only has 3 years and 16 days of service time, so he can’t decline an assignment.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
Yes. The ballhawks.
Also, Moyer has a minor league deal with Jays.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
I bet Jamie Moyer thinks that’s a shitty idea.
Chase Utley hit a home run.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22643497&c_id=phi&partnerId=aw-4775916560920827621-1040
I could see Sveum bullpenning F7 before long. He and/or the front office has shown little patience so far with pitchers so I don’t know how much more they’ll have for F7.
I’m not afraid to advocate moving F7 to the pen either. This experiment had little chance of working out and while F7 still has a decent FIP, he’s gotten hit pretty hard this year. He has a high BABIP, but he also gives up a lot of groundballs and has given up more line drives than you’d want too. I tend to think the more he pitches this year the more likely he is to get injured. He was decent as a reliever last year and I wouldn’t mind seeing if he could be again. Then again, I wouldn’t want to pay him what the Cubs will be paying him to be a reliever so I don’t know. I guess it doesn’t matter.
I don’t want Moyer, but if we move Garza and Dempster , lose Wells, and F7 moves to the pen, who do they get to start?
@ BubbaBiscuit:
Yeah, you made a good point about trading Garza and Dempster. Someone has to start. May as well be F7.
I’m OK with riding the Samardzija roller-coaster for a while longer. It’s been interesting, if nothing else.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
This is an almost impossible scenario (I don’t think there’s enough of a market for Dempster or Garza for them to be moved, at least right now), but at that point, the rotation would probably be whatever they could cull from the farm.
As bad as this team is, it could still get worse. (dying laughing)
I think F7 finishes the year as a starter unless Sveum really starts making noise that the kid has lost it.
Trout goes fishing…
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?c_id=ana&content_id=22643503&topic_id=8878746
Utley is now 3-4 with a home run.
I think they were going to end up bullpenning F7 at some point for workload reasons anyway. Even if he was pitching lights out there was little chance he’d throw more than, say, 140-150 innings.
Anyone think the Nats actually shut down Strasburg?
mb21 wrote:
Bryce Harper? Or are we adding a 1500 PA qualifier?
@ Rice Cube:
Mike Trout is fucking intense. He looks like he is about to murder someone after that play.
Poor JJ Hardy. He was 3-36 coming into the game and robbed three times of a hit.
Why again do people think Bryce Harper is better than Mike Trout again?
Daniel Hudson ————–> torn UCL
Can’t wait for the Chicago media to claim that this somehow vindicates Kenny Williams for that awful Edwin Jackson trade
@ Berselius:
I’d put both Harper and Trout’s HOF chances ahead of Castro’s, personally. Maybe Heyward’s and Stanton’s, too.
@ Berselius:
The media in Chicago gives two shits about the White Sox? The media anywhere gives two shits about the White Sox?
I guess, if they did, wouldn’t they be talking non-stop about what a great trade the White Sox made for Kevin Youk?
If that were true, and anyone cared about those dirty rednecks with their tobaccy stained sox, ESPN would be covering those topics instead of the White Sox celebration of Mullets. And Shawn Michaels would actually take a few months to grow a mullet after he was invited to throw out the first pitch for his odd hairstyle choice
The White Sox are the New York Mets without the money but with the victories.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I’ll have to agree. If we’re looking at all active players, then there are a few veterans that I would guess are in: Chipper? Thome? A-Rod? One of those guys surely makes it in, maybe all three.
Just looking at young guys, either one of them seems more able to be a flashy HOF’r then Castro. Castro could rack up 200 hits every season and not be a shoo-in, because he doesn’t really steal bases. Ichiro at least had that for a while. Who the hell knows? Castro could become Bonds and Harper could get stabbed to death by Cole Hamels in a barfight next week for wearing the wrong socks or whatever.
@ josh:
The discussion started with players under 25. There are, of course, several older players who could get in if they retired today. Pujols is only 32, and he’s already guaranteed to make it.
@ Berselius:
I think that makes sense
Speaking of potential HOFers, I think Rolen should make it, but I’m guessing he won’t.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Sorry, I forgot about that. Under 25, it’s hard to say. Heyward’s been kind of hit-or-miss, for as hyped as he was. He could find some consistency and be a Josh Hamilton type threat. Just glancing at the leader’s board on Fangraphs, McCutchen and Andrus are two names that really pop out at me.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
He’s got good career numbers, and he’s one of the best defenders at 3B ever. I don’t see how he doesn’t at least get a few votes.
I can’t tell until they post the replay but I think the Rangers just pulled off the “Major League” play.
As I was noting to myself that it probably won’t be Junior Lake that pushes Castro off SS (2 more throwing errors tonight), I was stunned to see that Arismendy Alcantara picked up his TWENTY SEVENTH error of the season tonight. Gah. Daytona pitchers must cringe when a ball is hit to him.
If all 3 of the top Cub organization SS (including Castro) panned out, I could see Baez moving to 3B and then Lake moving to somewhere in the OF. With Castro’s improved defense, the buzz to move him off SS is waning.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Bryan McCann, Robinson Cano,Dustin Pedroia, and Troy Tulowitzki would make my short list for the under-thirty crowd.
Among the under-25 guys, I’d have Castro behind Elvis Andrus. Andrus has improved at the plate, can take a walk, is a lock to stick at short, is faster, and plays for a perennial contender. The two career paths are similar. It seems Castro is trending down and Andrus is trending up.
Good point about Andrus.
Berselius, I’m taking Castro over the two gus you mentioned because Castro is further into his career. I don’t believe a rookie has that high a chance of reaching the hall of fame. I don’t think it’s as high ad the BP article for Castro but is think right now he has better odds among all 25 and under players. This doesn’t mean I think he’s the best but he’s likelier to reach the milestones for getting in than any of the others.
I think Verlander is more of a lock that we give him credit for. We see very, very few starting pitchers reign in a league MVP award. Verlander did that last year. I think he only needs one more really great season — and his 2012 season is about as good as the MVP year. The FIP may not show it but Detroit’s horrid defense this year, in my mind, makes 2012 Verlander all the more impressive.
What do you guys think Joe Mauer has to do to earn a HOF bid? He’s quietly having a great season in MIN. It would really help his case if the Twins were good, do you see Mauer playing postseason baseball again? The AL Central always seems to be up for grabs, so I say he’ll get a shot at the postseason if he can stick around until age 33. I’d wager he’d need to hit around .290 with double-digit homers until then to make it.
@ mb21:
I’d put Trout ahead of him. Trout is a ++ Defender in Center, super-speedy, and is leading the AL in Batting Average as a rookie. He is projected to steal 45 bases in 54 attempts. Ichiro is the only name that comes to mind to have done that. Unlike Ichiro, Trout seems to have + power as well.
Watching him play he has this killer demeanor that can’t be explained. He’s projected to have 15 home runs in under 500 AB’s this year. I see him getting at least a 30-30 season if not a 40-40 season before his career is over. That power-speed combination, as a 20 Year-old rookie, is hard to write off as a fluke.
Plus, Mike Trout is on pace for 45 walks. He already has a better eye than Castro.
But Bryce Harper? I think the hype outweighs the accomplishments.
I think pie is better than cake.
I think I’m 40-60 on Castro’s chances. I really see Castro as a player in flux. I don’t know if he’ll be a 30-30 guy two years down the road hitting .280 or if he’ll become more of a singles hitter. I think he sticks at Shortstop. The question with Castro is: As his body develops, does his defense improve or decline as a result? What happens to his speed? How much upside power does Castro have?
Castro is a victim of a glut of great middle infielders. In the 1990s, 1980s and 2000s I think that Castro would be more likely than not to make the hall. This generation has Tulo, Cano, Andrus, Pedroia, Ian Desmond and Asdrubal Cabrera are before or entering their primes as we type. These guys are all playing for winning teams. Texas, Boston, and New York are all perennial contenders, while Washington figures to be good for years to come. It will take 3+ years for the Cubs to be relevant again.
It’s just not fair.
Pezcore wrote:
Fair and the Baseball Hall of Fame aren’t the best of friends.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
If it can be done stupidly, it can be done by the BBWAA.
I’m surprised they don’t have this in the highlights. This is literally the same play as this:
@ Rice Cube:
Aha!
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22651417&c_id=mlb
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
That’s like thinking 2+2=4
@ Berselius22:
Sometimes I get crazy ideas like that.
Trout + Christopher Lloyd = 1.21 GigaWows
Holy shit, that is an amazing play. Easily one of the best I’ve ever seen.
mb21 wrote:
I don’t see why not. Harper and Trout are more advanced for their age than Castro is (and more advanced than Castro was at their age). I haven’t looked into it, but I’d bet that the odds of someone who’s a starter at 19 making into the HOF are quite good and both are already having success already. To put it another way, I don’t see any reason not to expect them to have been at least as successful as Castro has been by the time they reach Castro’s age.
Pezcore wrote:
I disagree. Playing every day at 19 is an accomplishment, let alone hitting .278 /.357/.480. He also has an 80 arm and 80 power.
I agree with Berselius that F7 will be bullpened later in the season to manage innings, that is unless they continue to start him on 6-7 days when available and yank him after 90 pitches. I think he ends up around 156-160 innings. Ultimately I think they have to keep up the SP experiment even if he takes a ton of lumps just to see if he can do it. Even if he’s a #5, at this point, next year’s rotation is Wood, Maholm, F7 and I guess Rusin from AAA? Not inspiring. I guess they’ll have to sign some guys.
Also, Alberto Carbrera was promoted to AAA. I think Randy Wells days are done.
@ Rice Cube:
Wow. That was the same play (dying laughing)
Cubs looking to add a third Cuban:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-cubs-pursuing-cuban-outfield-prospect-puig-20120627,0,7738476.story
This is such a Steve Rosenbloom thing to do: (note – not Steve Rosenbloom)
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/06/28/some-people-have-a-problem-with-clay-buchholz-going-to-a-charity-event-really/
Harper doing what’s he’s doing at 19 could put him in Ted Williams territory. of course it’s early, but guys who come to the majors with power and drawing a walk at that age are once in a generation players. I’d expect the HOF chances of him, Trout and Starlin are all pretty high. one has to remember that Starlin will have 500+ career his coming out of his age 22 season. if he stays at shortstop, he’s likely.
@ BubbaBiscuit:
Amazing catch. It looks like it would hurt.
There’s no doubt Trout and Harper have the ability to be HOF’rs. The real question will be how healthy they stay. Lots of really good players get derailed by injuries.
@ WaLi:
The cubs are creating a Cuban academy at Wrigley.
Rizzo’s Win/Loss record right now is standing at .500. Depending on how today goes, he might be past due for some booing.
On Rizzo, believe it’s free: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17518
@ mb21:
Maybe it’s a way to sell more concessions. Concepcion, Soler, and Puig are going to start a cigar stand in the bleachers.
@ josh:
But what is Al’s hat’s record when Rizzo is playing?
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I’ll need to do some further analysis. Most likely you should boo just to be safe.
@ Mish:
There’s more in there about the author than there is about Rizzo. Whole first half is just navel-gazing. When did BP turn into Cistulli-era Fangraphs? There’s not an ounce of analysis there, just a lot of words spilled in service of the author.
This is fucking Bill Simmons’s doing. Ever since that guy started writing, internet sportswriters seem to think it’s impossible to write about sports with expending 5000 words, talking about one’s life as if the reader gave a flying fuck about the glamorous lifestyle the author leads (I get to sit in the pressbox so often it now bores me! I have carefully observed the behavior of local sportswriters! And hark! I am now reading literature in the stands while the ignorant minions mill about below, fawning over the new toy. But wait, I’m self-aware! Fucking spare me.), using 90′s pop culture as a metaphor trove, and finally managing to talk about the title figure/match/game in the closing 2 graphs. No surprise this fellow is also an ESPN NBA guy. I swear, Simmons turned sportswriting into a fatuous exercise in vanity. God save the fan, indeed.
Seriously, what is a treacly piece like that doing on BP? What’s wrong with a punchy, 500-word piece of analysis, maybe some gifs of the kid’s new swing?
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I was sitting at my computer, looking at the Internet when this comment popped up. I saw other people liking it, but I held back, deciding I needed to use the time to read a little The Tomb by F. Paul Wilson. By the time I scrolled down to it there were already 4 likes. Typical. I held back, just observing, but of course there would be other comments about it. I put on my sunglasses and made jerk-off motions. This was going to be good. I can’t forget that time three years ago when I read a comment that everyone liked. It didn’t live up to the hype. So I read this one knowing that I was better than most of the likers, but I figured, why not? Time to do the Ole Job (that’s what I call the job).
Turned out, wasn’t half bad. I pulled off my sunglasses, gave the comment a wink and you know what?
I liked it.
Puig —————> Dodgers, for $40+ million
yowza
@ Berselius:
Joseph, Mary and Patrick, that is a hefty pricetag.
@ Berselius:
Hysteria. That’s the only explanation.
Puig —> Dodgers pending untangling of red tape
@ josh:
Well, he is the last bag of sugar or something.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/06/28/the-astros-may-get-rid-of-tals-hill-and-that-train/
100000x yes
@ Berselius:
But then how will acrobatic fans escape security?
Just posting w/o comment. I wait for others to tell me what to think about articles. (dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
They can just set up a network of trapezes that hang from the roof
@ Mish:
Oh, that wasn’t aimed at you. I just can’t believe BP is posting that kind of stuff now. It was bad enough that Fangraphs went that way.
@ Berselius:
That would be entertaining.
@ Berselius:
If that stupid flagpole is still there, maybe they can do a Jackie Chan stunt into one of the outfield balconies from atop said flagpole.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
*coughs, points out that this comment is made on a post that’s pretty much just a Simpsons reference and nothing else*
And to be fair, the author has had a lifelong existential crisis after, in a traumatic high school experience, accidentally breaking his Neutral Milk Hotel record by dropping his discman on it while laughing at Carlton dancing on Fresh Prince
@ Berselius:
But Aisley knew better than to spend 10000 words trying to convince us it was about more than just clip-mining a show he likes.
7/42 for Puig, and it apparently wasn’t even his highest offer. Dodgers never saw him play in an actual game.
@ Berselius:
Cubs never saw Soler. The money given to these guys is crazy stupid. At least this time it wasn’t the cubs.
gaius Marius wrote:
That’s a clown statement, bro.
Trout is far, far ahead of Harper at this point. He draws walks just as well, is only a year older, and plays plus-plus defense. I noticed that both strike out a ton. I was watching that catch and saw Mike Trout as the splitting image of Jim Edmonds. The intensity, after the catch, really clinched it. Trout’s had about 100 ABs more experience than Harper. I’ll give you that. Trout is sporting an OPS approximately .100 better than Harper’s.
Player #1: .281/.358/.483, .841 OPS, 7 HRs, 20 RBIs, 24 BB, 44 SO. OPS+ 127 in 203 PA
Player #2: .258/.324/.409, .733 OPS, 4 HRs, 12 RBIs, 15 BB, 46 SO. OPS+ 93 in 159 PA
Player One is Bryce Harper in 200 ABs at age 19 during his rookie season. Player Two is BJ Upton, who was hyped similarly,in 159 ABs during his rookie season. The big difference with Harper is the Raw Power, but Upton was on pace for ~20 walks had he made it to 200 PA..
BJ Upton ended up being a solid, above average, player. I doubt anyone would argue that he ends up a Hall-of-Famer at this point in his career.
I think it’s just too early to write Harper in. What Trout is doing is extraordinary. He’s a five-tool OF at a premium position on pace to lead the AL in batting average and rack up 40 steals. I have to see more from Harper before he gets my vote.
I think it’s too early to write in under-25 guys as Hall-of-Famers. I’d have Trout ahead of Andrus, Castro, and Harper at this point in his career as far as their chances. But really, odds are only two of those make it, and it’ll largely depend on their prime years.
@ mb21:
I’d feel better about the Puig signing because he’s played better professionally than Soler. Don’t have a dossier on him, but on his Cuban League accomplishments I’d say he falls into the high minors. I’d have trouble starting Soler above Peoria.
I think of the four Cubans of the sanity Armageddon, this one is most likely to return value. This is logical if only because the last, and least hyped, international free agent tends to be the best.
Also, LaHair? Swing is exactly like Griffey Jr. Watch the follow-through.
healtchcare law—————-> still a law
I just don’t understand why teams go hog wild for these types of players, and then try and justify the price tag with a “it only costs money, so it’s not that bad” or “the new CBA will limit this going forward”
Money matters all the fucking time. Even to the Yankees. That 40 mil the dodgers just spent could have been spent on a number of other prospects. It could have been spent on free agents. it could be spent on stadium upgrades, or used to pay down debt. Money is a great resource, and even “big market teams” are being stupid if they waste it.
As far as the whole “these are the last cuban prospects before the new CBA kicks in” arguement, regardless of how much a team pays, a player will only be worth so much on the field. Unless Puig is the only prospect of his kind (he’s not) it makes no sense to pay him a single dollar above what his value is. Especially when you get just as good of prospects in the draft the following year for much cheaper.
@ josh:
The results seem different, though.
Heading to a Tennessee Smokies game later this week. Should I write an unobstructed view?
From a Wittenmyer’s article on Byrd’s salary. News to me. Is this sour grapes and making controversy out of whole cloth?
FWIW, I say save the train, but get rid of the flagpole. meh to the hill.
@ SVB:
No surprise here. He’s a known steroid user. He recently received a 50-game ban for a drug that masks the effects of roids’. People tend to be assholes when they are doping.
Remember this was also the guy who screamed “take me with you” when Fukudome was traded last year. I regret with Marlon Byrd, as I now do with Geovany Soto, Carlos Marmol and Matt Garza, that we didn’t trade while the price was high.
I’m bummed that this FIRE SALE has netted zero trades. With the way Thepstien is pushing it, I’d expect someone to have cleaned out a locker recently.
@ Pezcore:
Could be that no one wants what the Cubs are peddling…at least not yet.
I called all four were at peak value in the offseason. It sucks that only Garza is still starting out of those four players. We could have gotten, at the least, a C+ guy (probably ranked 8-10 in a system but not top 100) for three of those four if we got rid of them during the off-season. Garza and Soto were, at the least, comparable to Cashner in value. That trade netted us a top-50 prospect.
I think with established players the pattern here suggests to sell them once they can fetch you something tangible in return. There are no guarantees. Trading veterans means that you’ll get value for the competitive years. The WAR Veterans provide now means nothing when your season tops of at 60 wins.
The only way to lose the bet is if the player becomes a Type A free agent. The new CBA makes this a hell of a lot less likely to happen.
How baseballs are made: (dying laughing)
http://www.flipflopflyin.com/flipflopflyball/art-howbaseballs.html
@ Pezcore:
That would be great!
@ Edwin:
Interesting assessment. I’m going with my gut on this one. The follow-through. It’s all about the follow-through.
Calling HOF for LaHair right now.
@ Pezcore:
Rumors were people questioned Garza’s ability and still are, I feel like they tried, but were not happy with potential returns and Garza doesn’t have to leave this year, just trying to maximize return on him, I think, holy run-on sentence Batman. Soto had even more questions, which Geo will show up? Plus, Doumit and Snyder signed kinda cheap and the Rockies were giving away players left and right to throw money at Cuddyer when he isn’t much different than the Seth Smith they had there. O’Dowd surely has removed all doubt about his inability to GM this off-season and season. Cubs best bet was to hold on and hope they were one of a few sellers at the deadline with the new wild card and give their chips a chance to improve their value.
Edit: Marmol had no trade value left once Hendry gave him that extension.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/race-to-the-top/every-loss-counts.html
Soto’s peak trade value would have been 2008. Would have seemed pretty foolish to trade him then. Even after his decent 2010, I think the Cubs still saw themselves as potential contenders.