It was mentioned last night that the Cubs are interested in Brandon McCarthy. I have two things to say.
| Date On | Date Off | Transaction | Days | Games | Side | Body Part | Injury |
| 9/6/12 | 10/12/12 | DtdDL | 36 | 26 | - | Head | Surgery |
| 6/20/12 | 8/10/12 | 15-DL | 51 | 43 | Right | Shoulder | Strain |
| 6/8/12 | 6/19/12 | DTD | 11 | 9 | Right | Shoulder | Soreness |
| 5/18/12 | 6/2/12 | 15-DL | 15 | 13 | Right | Shoulder | Strain |
| 5/3/12 | 5/12/12 | DTD | 9 | 7 | Right | Shoulder | Soreness |
| 3/21/12 | 3/28/12 | Camp | 7 | 0 | Left | Fingers | Laceration |
| 8/12/11 | 8/12/11 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Right | Knee | Contusion |
| 5/19/11 | 7/3/11 | 15-DL | 45 | 41 | Right | Shoulder | Stress Fracture |
| 7/29/10 | 11/1/10 | 60-DL | 95 | 61 | Right | Shoulder | Recovery From Stress Fracture |
| 6/20/10 | 7/29/10 | Minors | 39 | 0 | Right | Shoulder | Stress Fracture |
| 6/11/10 | 6/19/10 | Minors | 8 | 0 | Right | Shoulder | Inflammation |
| 4/26/10 | 6/3/10 | Minors | 38 | 0 | Right | Shoulder | Stress Fracture |
| 6/5/09 | 9/1/09 | 60-DL | 88 | 77 | Right | Shoulder | Stress Fracture |
| 3/1/09 | 3/12/09 | Camp | 11 | 0 | Right | Shoulder | Soreness |
| 9/16/08 | 9/29/08 | DTD | 13 | 11 | Right | Fingers | Strain |
| 3/30/08 | 8/23/08 | 60-DL | 146 | 129 | Right | Forearm | Inflammation |
| 3/3/08 | 3/30/08 | Camp | 27 | 0 | Right | Forearm | Tightness |
| 2/26/08 | 3/7/08 | Camp | 10 | 0 | Right | Elbow | Soreness |
| 9/21/07 | 10/1/07 | DTD | 10 | 9 | Right | Forearm | Tightness |
| 8/11/07 | 9/11/07 | 15-DL | 31 | 27 | Right | Shoulder | Stress Fracture |
| 6/10/07 | 7/2/07 | 15-DL | 22 | 19 | Right | Fingers | Blisters |
| 5/26/07 | 6/9/07 | DTD | 14 | 13 | Right | Fingers | Blisters |
| 6/16/06 | 6/16/06 | DTD | 0 | 0 | Left | Knee | Contusion |
| Year | IP | fWAR | rWAR | WARP |
| 2005 | 67 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.1 |
| 2006 | 84.2 | 0 | 0.9 | 1 |
| 2007 | 101.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 2008 | 22 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| 2009 | 97.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2010 | - | - | - | - |
| 2011 | 170.2 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 |
| 2012 | 111 | 1.8 | 2 | 1 |
I don't think I'd be too interested in signing this guy to a long-term contract. It obviously depends on the price, but he's had a million arm injuries and has really only been good over his last 280 innings. Those are more important than what he did in 2005, but considering the injuries and his previous ineffectiveness, I'd only get involved if he's going to be signed for 3 years and something like $20 million.
After thinking about this more, I'd stay away unless it's a 1-year deal.
I want the Cubs to sign McCarthy, but for a lot less than that (dying laughing). I was thinking he’d get a deal in the 1/5 flier range from someone, but his numbers the past two years were a little better than I expected.
WaLi wrote:
It wouldn’t be difficult for someone who can comb through the play by play data, but I’m not sure it would give us any additional useful information. We could easily figure out how many times the Cubs had a runner at 1st or 2nd base, but that’s not enough. We need to know who was batting and what the score is.
What we really need is more years. I can say from what I’ve noticed looking at these over the years, that Sac bunts and runners moving are actually fairly consistent for managers. What I can’t say is how Sveum is going to manage with a good team. That said, there’s more than enough examples of very bad teams bunting the shit out of the ball.
The shoulder soreness all last season (until he had his head broken) is disconcerting at best. I can’t imagine the Cubs throw a truckload of cash at him. Maybe they throw the most at him for 1 year and figure they’ll extend him if it goes well and let him go if not.
Maybe he takes that hoping to parlay it into a bigger pay day next off-season. I don’t know, but I’d be as reluctant to commit 3 years to this guy as I am to commit 3 years to relievers.
@ Berselius:
I think the only way he goes for 1/5 is if the medical reports show him unlikely to start the season healthy. Otherwise I think he gets a 3 year deal in the range of 27 million. To be honest, I’d just stay away unless it’s a 1-year deal. His injury history is comparable to Kerry Wood’s.
Aisle424 wrote:
Agreed. I have to take back what I said in the article. I’d say the hell away at 3 years. I would at 2 years also. Way too many injuries.
mb21 wrote:
And I don’t think we’ll ever get a chance to see how he’d do with a good team. (dying laughing)
I’d absolutely team Brandon McCarthy up with Len Kasper for the Cubs TV booth.
@ Mish:
I’m OK with that.
I’d go 2/15 tops with McCarthy, and would still feel that I overpaid.
He seems like the kind of guy a team like the Cubs would try to pick up – if he stays healthy, maybe then can flip him for something, if not all he costs is money.
Nate Silver on Colbert embedded on the home page: http://www.obstructedview.net/
Isn’t McCarthy one of those guys who understands FIP and made adjustments to get his FIP down, making him better? McCarthy and Grienke are two that come to mind.
@ jtsunami:
He’s talked about advanced stats before and that’s good, but the injuries are a huge concern for me. That many arm injuries isn’t a good thing. (dying laughing)
Have you guys considered his comedic clubhouse presence? We need someone to replace Dempster in that role!
(his Twitter avatar – Picture of him after being struck in the head)
@ jtsunami:
Brian Bannister is another who espoused interest in DIP stats, for all the good that did him. (dying laughing)
@ WaLi:
Sometimes, laughter is all we have.
/Roger Rabbit
@ Rice Cube:
I just wish we could laugh at something other than the Cubs playing baseball
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/11/06/bradshaw-responds-to-reggie-bush-chicken-comments/
@ WaLi:
It’s too bad the Astros are switching leagues.
@ Mish:
It was sort of like the “Chink in the Armor” headline for Jeremy Lin, except live and without enough time to fix before airing.
I didn’t think the Jeremy Lin thing was intentional either, just bad wording.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/11/06/brandon-leagues-crazy-contract-with-the-dodgers-is-even-crazier-than-you-thought/
Sounds like the 5 finalists for Brenly’s job are Plesac, Sutcliffe, Karros, Hollandsworth, and Gary Matthews
Sarge or GTFO
Javier Vazquez could be unretiring
@ Berselius:
That’s a lot of finalists. They must have had an open call for applicants, like with the PA announcer job a couple years ago which my brother applied for.
@ Berselius:
Have any of them done the job before?
By that I mean, have they been the primary analyst on a team’s local TV broadcast?
Isn’t Matthews on the radio?
Isn’t Karros kind of a part-timer in LA?
@ Berselius:
My order of preference would be Plesac, Sutcliffe, Karros, Sarge, Hollandsworth, which means Hollandsworth gets the job.
@ Suburban kid:
Didn’t Sutcliffe do some full-time work with San Diego?
@ Suburban kid:
Sarge does radio for the Phillies. He might do some TV there too. He’s decent.
@ mb21:
Before he got shitcanned for being drunk on the air all the time, right?
@ josh:
Maybe that’s what I’m thinking of (that happened in San Diego).
I don’t think any have had full-time tv gigs (Sarge is the closest). I’d still go with Plesac or Sutcliffe.
Berselius wrote:
@ Berselius:
I’m kinda bummed they didn’t talk to Doug Glanville. Dude is smart.
Sutcliffe’s drunk episode in SD was when he was just visiting the booth. He had been associated with the team as an ST coach or some shit, and maybe an occasional broadcaster. He does have a lot of experience calling games for ESPN and MLB International.
I’m not saying having experience in the exact same role is necessary, but I think it’s preferable in an older candidate.
Rice Cube wrote:
Clearly, WGN/Comcast/The Cubs are not going after the smart demographic.
Ronnie Woo doing what he can for the President on election day:
via Kap.
@ Aisle424:
Something ironic about this…
I must admit that I ROR’d.
I can’t remember what Plesac is like. Hollandsworth seems like bland milquetoast. Karros is well spoken but overall pretty bland. I haven’t heard Sarge much. Sutcliffe’s plus is that he has a personality. Sometimes it is quite irritating but I’d rather someone who is full of himself than someone who is vacuous.
@ Suburban kid:
I think Sarge has a lot of personality.
@ Suburban kid:
Plesac sounds like he should have been in the Sopranos. Also HAIRPLUGS GALORE.
josh wrote:
I have not heard a single good thing about Sarge’s broadcasting abilities. I think of the candidates, I’d have to go with Sutcliffe. He’s at least listenable and not a huge step down from Brenly. I was hoping for a step up, but sadly, Brenly really was probably one of the top guys.
@ Aisle424:
I’ve listened to him before. I’ve heard worse (Keith Moreland).
Any chance OV needs an intern? Retail fucking sucks.
@ akabari:
Sorry to hear. Perhaps some seasonal jobs are available?
Aisle424 wrote:
I feel like I remember hearing good things about them before, but every Phillies fan that has commented on it has basically said “take Sarge, please!”. Sarge is also in his 60s, and WGN might be looking for someone a little more long-term. Then again, he could just be keeping the seat warm for Wood anyway. /ageism
I guess I’d rather roll the dice on Plesac or Sutcliffe than get someone boring like Karros or worthless like Hollandsworth. Maybe they’d be better when they get away from the HYPE MACHINE that is ESPN/studio shows.
I guess the Red Baron was indeed the regular TV commentator for SD in the late 90s.
I went to find clips of Sarge and found this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCOyQ8uSkCg
@ akabari:
You can work for me. There’s no pay. Basically, you do my job and pretend to be me while I sit at home and write/draw comics/fap. You can sleep in my garage and eat whatever mice you find.
@ Suburban kid:
See? That old bastard is hilarious!
@ Rice Cube:
What am I looking at here?
It can’t possibly be a sea creature with Homer Simpson’s face doing a Rockettes routine.
I checked, and I’m still at 4,279 on the list. But it seems like they expect to have seats to offer me.
(dying laughing) @ Cubs. I’m just a jerk in 2006 with an email account.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2012/oct/13/25-sport-gifs-that-keep-on-giving?newsfeed=true
Either 4,000+ STH aren’t going to renew, or most of the people on the waiting list aren’t serious buyers, or some combo of the two.
Wouldn’t 4,000 be around 15%, Aisley? And to think it was only recently that they had fewer than a dozen seats turn over per year.
@ Suburban kid:
Yeah, I’m looking. Its just awful to be one of those whole “my college degree got me this job?” Phases. Begging mode commence!
@Josh sounds like a good deal. Can you pay me in Cubs rickets? At 9 cents a pop its a steal for you.
akabari wrote:
what happened.
OV only offers paid internships, wherein you pay to be an intern here.
/guy who doesn’t write/administer OV (dying laughing)
Suburban kid wrote:
Hard to say. because you have to figure each account probably averages 2 tickets or more. I doubt there are very many single seat STH and there are certainly more 3s and 4s to make up for those singles in an average. So if we assume they think #4000 on the list will be eligible to buy seats, you have to figure they are expecting a turnover of around 8,000 seats. now if they figure in expected decline rate that changes the math again and I have no idea what is reasonable anymore. But moving the list 4,000 spots would be significant turnover. At least 10%, probably closer to 15%.
Speaking of season tickets…
Is anybody here interested in getting in on 1/4 to 1/3 of a Nights/Weekends package for a pair of seats? If we stay in 423, the total for the 2 seats is about $6,600. We’ve considered moving to the UD outfield which would make them $4,500 or so. There are 57 games and we split them up via draft and you pay for the games you select, so if you pick all the expensive games, you pay more, but it tends to split up fairly evenly when all the choosing is done.
If you’re interested, shoot me an email at tmcginnis2002 (at) hotmail (dot) com.
I should add that the package does come with post-season ticket purchasing rights to 2 games per round of the playoffs.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
I was really big on him till reading this but now a little bit of pee came out. Maybe one year with a club option. That club option really helped our haul with Maholm this year.
@ Aisle424:
Do you know how to identify an internet dinosaur? One clear indication below:
Aisle424 wrote:
(dying laughing)
When I collect student emails in class each semester, I specifically state that I will not accept any hotmail accounts because they fail so often in accepting attachments.
@ Carne Harris:
I’d be fine with something like that if it it’s a relatively low base salary in 2013.
@ SVB:
It’s been my e-mail for 10 years and I’m not giving out the e-mail I actually use for people I know in real life to you crazy people.
Aisle424 wrote:
I rest my case. (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
(Though I agree with the second part.)
Word is that Jeremy Bonderman, 2 years removed from TJ surgery, is thinking about a comeback. I’d take a chance on him.
Also, the Rockies talked to Steve Beuchele and Eric Young Sr about their manager job. Ah, glory days.
(Both somewhere on MLBTR)
@ SVB:
I keep a hotmail account around just to have an account for when I sign up for shit that I know will result in a bombardment of spam/update/etc emails. I think I check that account once every 2 months (dying laughing)
http://mashable.com/2012/11/06/nate-silver-new-york-times-traffic/
@ mb21:
The automated schedule fucked up and they cut my hours from 29 to 9. They said they would “investigate” but then the HR manager quit…etc. Need money to live, you know. No big deal. Plus everyone there is kind of a prick. I know, whine whine…etc.
@ akabari:
That’s quite a glitch there. Sorry you had to deal with that.
@ akabari:
I especially like the Freudian slip of “Cubs rickets.”
That sucks dude. The summer after I graduated from college, I had to stay in the small town my school was in b/c my wife was trying to finish. I started out working at McDonalds. Then I got a job at Encue (one of those record/book stores Best Buy bought out) and then got fired from there for forgetting to lock the door one night, and then I moved up to working in restaurant. Also, I sent my resume to the local bank and was told they weren’t hiring but were impressed with my resume. A week later, a friend who was a local moved back to town and got a job the next day with that same bank.
@ josh:
It’s reassuring to know that kind of thing, really. As in, post college can be shitty for other people too (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
@ Akabari:
For sure. Those real jobs you hear about can take time to get.
@ josh:
Sure, didn’t most people on this blog go to grad school because they couldn’t get a real job post-BA? I know I did. And post-masters, I did nearly a year of retail and a few months of temping before landing a real job.
@ Suburban kid:
That was part of it, for me. Though I was planning on doing grad school since late in my college career. For me, working shit jobs just accelerated the timetable.
@ Suburban kid:
My current “real” job started out as part time through a temp agency.
Winter meetings! Woot!
@ Rice Cube:
Aren’t the real Winter Meetings in December? Isn’t the November one just an owners meeting or GMs meeting — and only a warm-up to the real deal?
@ Rice Cube:
EDIT:
@ Suburban kid:
Yeah, Winter Meetings start in December. These are just the GM meetings. A few deals might get done, but not anywhere close to next month’s meetings.
delete
delete2
Top 10 Cubs Prospects from BP ($$)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18849
@ Suburban kid:
That’s meant to convey throwing cold water on someone’s idea, not the literal meaning of torturing Falun Gong adherents, btw.
@ Mish:
Castro and Rizzo are on top of the 26-and-under list unsurprisingly (they and BJax are the only ML’ers on the list).
KG is very very high on Almora. Claims he’s only a moderate risk while Baez is an extreme risk (Soler a high risk).
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Wasn’t Brett near the top last year? Do you think he dropped because of added talent or because he didn’t excel last year? Although more likely is a combination of both.
Also where is Concepcion?
Says Vizcaino’s future is as a late-inning setup guy. I hope he’s wrong.
@ mb21:
KG doesn’t work for BP anymore.
@ WaLi:
He dropped because he had a worse season in AAA than some were hoping and wasn’t very good at all at the MLB level.
Concepcion should be in another organization. (dying laughing)
@ WaLi:
He had a down year in the minors and struggled in the majors. (Also, it’s written by a different person than last year.)
@ Rizzo the Rat:
(dying laughing) forgot about that.
@ mb21:
This is Jason Parks now
Looks like the ranking process is far more complicated now. It used to be whatever KG liked, now they try to be more objective: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18809
First starting pitcher on the list (Pierce Johnson) profiles as a mid-rotation starter in the future. Jesus, this organization has no fucking pitching.
WaLi wrote:
https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Concepcion,+Chile&hl=en&ie=UTF8&ll=-36.820279,-73.050842&spn=1.618214,2.425232&sll=30.307761,-97.753401&sspn=0.872596,1.212616&oq=concepcio&hnear=Concepci%C3%B3n,+Concepci%C3%B3n+Province,+Biob%C3%ADo+Region,+Chile&t=m&z=9
Next best starter has less than 10 professional innings.
Wow at Vogelbach #5
The starter after Underwood has 10 professional innings over 2 years and is a future 2/3 starter.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I thought it was a better writeup than any KG had done for the Cubs.
@ Berselius:
I’m surprised at that, too. I have a hard time seeing him ahead of Jackson.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/baseball-prospectus-top-10-cubs-prospects.html