I actually like Lendy Castillo a fair bit.
Lendy Castillo was signed by the Philadelphia Phillies in 2006… as a shortstop. He actually showed considerable promise on the defensive side, but could not hit to save his life.
2007: 684 OPS
2008: 566 OPS
2009: 453 OPS
After it was apparently there was no way he was going to hack it even as an all-glove shortstop, the Phillies ended up moving Lendy to the pitching staff (he was just 21 when they started – signed at 18). As a pitcher, he showed some promise in his first year, working up to A- (albeit barely). As a 22-year old, he threw 46 innings of 2.54 ball with 9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9, adequate numbers for a player in just his second year of pitching.
The Phillies left Lendy unprotected in the Rule V that year, and the Cubs selected him. Chicago barely used him even for a Rule V guy, with 13 appearances and 16 innings in the majors. It wasn't very pretty, but it was an awful sample size and I'm not that worried about it. He did, however, walk the opposing team's pitcher on 4 pitches once. That's no good. Castillo also got "hurt," and the Cubs stashed him in the minors for rehab assignments also- it was another 20 SSS innings where he absolutely dominated.
Pitch Selection/Stuff
Castillo is a pitching neophyte, and as such he does not feature many pitches. In the majors this year, Castillo sported a fastball, slider, cutter (using very sparingly, maybe one or two per outing) and one change (which was likely just a hanging slider or something – it was thrown for a ball). None of his pitches were effective last year, save the cutter he threw only 25 times all year. The pitches aren't refined at all, and he doesn't fool anyone, yet (no one swing at pitches out of the zone; they always swing at them in the zone; they usually always make contact).
All of this doesn't make a compelling argument as to why he's worth a 40-man roster spot. I'm not sure I can make one, either; however, he has some interesting skills. He can touch 96 with his fastball and 87 with his slider (he averages 92 and 83 with them). His biggest hurdle to success his un-straightening his fastball, which basically is an arrow at this point. I think that will hopefully come with more instruction.
Summary
On nearly any other team, I'd say that Lendy Castillo definitely does not deserve a roster spot. On a team like the Cubs (from a standpoint of talent), I almost still can't make the case. He's a project reliever with fairly high upside and a low, low floor. However, I think he's got a fairly high ceiling. He's shown an ability to strike people out at all levels while minimizing his walks, especially for a guy with almost no experience. As he refines his repertoire, it's not too difficult to imagine Castillo developing into an 8th-inning guy, or even a 5th-starter type. That will depend on his tightening that fastball and getting some more movement/better placement. If the Cubs waived Castillo, I don't think he'd clear waivers, so the Cubs are going to have to measure his upside against their current redundancy of fringey pitching on the 40-man roster. I'm not sure where he'll end up when the season begins. In spite of his 2012 troubles, I kinda hope he sticks.
Did You Know?
Lendy was used on no days rest only once last year, on one day once, and two days twice. The other outings? 4, 5, 5, 6, 9, 14, 19, and 94.
The Cubs were 0-13 in games that Lendy appeared.
Lendy appeared in 5 games against the Brewers, and no more than once against any other team.
Lendy Castillo = Stole ill candy
And since I was gone when Stan passed, I’d like to share a neat Musial stat for you.
Stan Musial’s career doubles rate was 5.7% (he had a double in 5.7% of all of his PA).
Starlin Castro’s career walk rate is 5.2% (he has a walk in 5.2% of all of his PA).
/fixed
wlcopper wrote:
Scoring 10+ runs one day and then scoring fewer isn’t unique. The Cubs had fewer of those than most teams because they were a horrible offense and had more games in which they did nothing at all because they were horrible. This trend will continue as long as the offense is horrible. It’s not like there are teams out there that score 4.5 runs every game. Offense, like pitching, is inconsistent and will always be inconsistent on a daily basis.
My guess is Castillo begins the year in AA if he’s not waived. It wasn’t until 2011 that he was in an age appropriate level and then the following year he was at the big league level.
@ dmick89:
The 2008 Cubs were shut out 8 times, and they’re probably the best offensive team we’ll ever see call Wrigley Field home.
@ Berselius:
@ dmick89:
I remember someone telling me that a really easy bar bet to win is to bet that you can guess the total if you multiply all of the runs scored per game for a baseball team in a season. Then you just write “0″ on a piece of paper and stick it in a sealed envelope and you win.
I think there was one team (maybe the Reds?) that managed to not get shut out in a season since I was told that, but I bet even if it has happened a few times, you win that bet 99% of the time. That’s pretty good house odds.
The Reds definitely did it in 2000 and I remember it being a big deal.
This says also the 1932 Yankees weren’t shut out. And that’s it.
http://en.allexperts.com/q/Baseball-Trivia-General-2552/f/shut-season.htm
DeRosa ——> Blue Jays
Pearl Jam ——> Wrigley (maybe/probably, not officially official)
Yeah, the idea that a team should be consistent offensively (or in run prevention) is a myth. It’s not likely to happen. In each season there’s a large enough variation from the expected performance. IIRC, 1 standard deviation from projected wins is about 10 or so. That just means that most of the teams will win within 10 games of their projections, but some will win or lose more than that. That’s over 162 games.
How many times have we seen games that were supposed to be low scoring because you had two great pitchers on the mound and end up high scoring? Most of the time the run scoring will be below the league average in those games, but some times you get 14-2 blowouts or even 12-9 games with 7 combined home runs.
I’d have to double check, but I seem to recall hearing one of the Braves announcers mention sometime back in 1996 or 1997 that Greg Maddux hadn’t given up more than 4 or 5 runs in any start for a number of years. That’s ridiculous if it’s true. I’ve always assumed it was. Didn’t care much about stats back then.
Maddux gave up 5 runs only once in 1992 (June 5th @ Montreal). He gave up 5 runs 3 different times in 1993 and 4 times in 1994. He gave up 6 once in 1996 and 5 once that year.
He gave up 6 runs on June 6, 1991 and didn’t give up more than 5 until May 3, 1996 .
I would imagine that is rather impressive, but I don’t really know. Either way, Maddux was damn consistent over those years. Even his poor games the other team was lucky to get 5 runs and even somewhat lucky to score 4.
Maddux made 229 starts between 1991 and 1996 and gave up 4 or more runs in only 48 of them. He allowed 5 or more 23 times and 6 or more just 5 times. He allowed 7 runs twice and never allowed more than that in a single start between those years.
Thought I’d check out Pedro’s peak just to compare it to Maddux since I don’t think there’s any doubt whatsoever that Pedro had the best peak in the history of the game among pitchers.
I’m looking at a longer stretch of years (1997-2003). Pedro made 201 appearances and 199 starts over those years so it’s only about a season’s worth of games fewer than Maddux from 1991-1996.
Runs/#
4+: 36
5+: 20
6+: 9
7+: 5
8+: 3
9+: 2
10: 1
In 66% of Pedro’s starts over those years he gave up 2 or fewer runs! In 51.3% of those starts he allowed 0 or 1 run! 47 times he didn’t even allow a run!
Half the time Pedro went to the mound over those years his team only needed only 2 runs to win the game. 24% of the time they only needed a run to have a lead when he left the game. That’s crazy.
I once saw a Frenchman piss all over his moped in order to warm up the engine.
Food for thought on this frosty day.
@ Suburban kid:
I’m not French, and the Batmobile is not a moped.
@ Suburban kid:
Moises Alou is Dominican, not French.
@ Mish:
All you foreigners and your foreign vehicles look alike.
Suburban kid wrote:
That’s called a “French piss”. Sorry, I mean a “Freedom piss”
dmick89 wrote:
not saying that this isn’t impressive but if you have either an amazing bullpen or a manager who pulls SPs at the first sign of trouble (or both since these would probably go hand-in-hand) then these same stats could be theoretically produced by a pretty shitty pitcher.
where does faget come from? i had just assumed that was the correct technical term but i looked it up and it’s not. although i did find out that there’s a dude named Guy Henry Faget which is a pretty cool name.
EnricoPallazzo wrote:
(dying laughing)
chris carpenter (theo comp) —-> dfa
@ EnricoPallazzo:
It’s more impressive than you might think. I’d have to look into it more and we’d have to adjust for the run scoring environment, but the odds of a shitty pitcher allowing 3 or fewer runs in as high a percentage number of starts as the elite pitchers is probably 0.
@ GW:
Awesome. I hope he comes back
Matt Garza has been an above average pitcher in his career. Since 2008 he’s made 144 starts. In 10 of those he’s allowed 7 runs (never more than that). Maddux made nearly 100 more starts and allowed 7 in just 2 of them. Pedro did just 5 times in 55 more starts. 31 of his 144 starts he’s allowed 5 or more runs. Maddux did it just 23 times in nearly 100 more starts.
If we compare Garza to a lesser pitcher we’re likely going to find he’s even allowed 6+ at a higher rate than Garza.
I’d have to double check, but I’m also fairly sure the run scoring environment was lower during Garza’s stretch than Pedro and Maddux.
Delmon Young –> Phillies
@ Myles:
Would be cool, but don’t we already have 41 players on the 40 man since we haven’t officially signed Villanueva?
@ WaLi:
I just started reading an article that GW sent me and in the second paragraph is Young’s name. Weird.
@ Aisle424:
I always hear about these bar bets. Who’s taking these bar bets? Have you ever heard of any bar bet that wasn’t some kind of trick.
Granted, I think I’ve been to a bar maybe 7 times in my life.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
It’s from a song by Korn. That’s the first place I ever heard it. Didn’t we have this discussion once? And didn’t it end with a picture of Jonathan Davis with a dildo photoshopped in for his microphone?
WaLi wrote:
Already slim chances of Soriano ——–> Phillies ————–> even slimmer
@ WaLi:
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=chc
Just 40 right now. They’d have to get rid of someone to let Villanueva on. I doubt they get rid of Campana and as Myles stated it’s up in the air whether Lendy Castillo can clear waivers. I thought they might DFA Clevenger but then they have no emergency catcher if Beef Castle or Navarro break.
@ Rice Cube:
I think Raley and Rusin should be the frontrunners. They should clear waivers easily.
If I get an “Incomplete” in the last class I haven’t received a grade from yet, my fall semester transcript will spell “BABIP.”
@ josh:
I think it happened more when people didn’t all have portable Google machines in their pockets to solve arguments.
Someone would argue that Joe DiMaggio got into the HOF on his first ballot and someone would insist that he didn’t and they’d have to wait until they found a Baseball Almanac to answer the question, so in the meantime, they’d argue back and forth until someone got so convincd he was right that a they’d make a bet.
Now it just happens too fast:
Barfly #1: I can’t believe the BBWAA is so lame. I can’t believe even Joe DiMaggio didn’t get in on his first ballot.
Barfly #2: DER IZ NO WAY DAT JOLT’N JOE DIN’T MAKE DA HALL ON DA FURST BALLETT MY FRENT.
Barfly #1: No he didn’t (Does Google search on his iPhone). See?
Barfly #2: (looks at iPhone) YEAH WELL, DAT SOSA IS A CHEETIN’ BUM ANYWAYS. DAT JABRONI’LL NEVER GET TO DA HALL.
@ GBTS:
You should go for the .290 GPA next semester.
@ GBTS:
Unlike the previous semester, when it spelled “FIP”.
Here’s a bar bet for you jabronis to try. It was in my newsfeed this morning:
Sammy Sosa TV
http://www.facebook.com/TheOfficialSammySosa/posts/105115539668116
@ Aisle424:
It just gets better.
@ GBTS:
Did someone -1 this because it was a dumb observation, or are they afraid my grades are slipping?
@ GBTS:
Your professor reads OV.
@ GBTS:
Your grades aren’t kept on a fagety spreadsheet! Wait…
@ Aisle424:
(dying laughing)
@ Suburban kid:
http://www.itgetsbetter.org/
@ Suburban kid:
Wait, do the Irish use Euros?
@ josh:
Correct.
More from Sickels on BJax:
Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago Cubs
Bats: L Throws: L HT: 6-2 WT: 210 DOB: August 2, 1988
I have been an optimistic about Brett Jackson, but now. . .well, now I don’t know what to think. The tools are obvious: his combination of speed and power is very potent. He’ll take a walk, helping his OBP even when his batting average is low. Although many scouts think he fits best in right field, I’ve seen him make some very stellar plays in center, demonstrating plenty of range to go with his arm strength. But you know the rest of Jackson’s story, don’t you? The strikeouts. . .oh, the strikeouts. His whiff rate was simply obscene last year, especially after he was promoted to the majors. He seemed to go backwards with his swing at Iowa, having problems with breaking stuff outside the zone, but also with fastballs that would tie him up inside. As stated, he makes a serious effort to work counts, but he just swings and misses so damn much. Jackson’s other skills are strong enough that he could be a productive and useful player even if he’s hitting .230, but what if he can’t break the Mendoza Line? That’s a legitimate question. Pacific Coast League sources are quite split on him. Some think he will still be a valuable regular player with a few adjustments, others think he’s destined for a reserve role. Some believe he’ll never solve the contact problem and is doomed to wander the Quadruple-A borderland for the next decade. What do I think? I think he’s the bastard son of Rob Deer and Andy Van Slyke. If I were the Cubs, and I’m not trying to contend in 2013, I would stick him in the lineup, let him hit seventh or eighth, and just see what happens. Grade B-.
Mish wrote:
(dying laughing)
Mish wrote:
(dying laughing)
I have a dumb question. Are players with poor contact skills less valuable in the “bench bat” role than players with higher contact skills?
@ WaLi:
What I mean is usually if you are using a pinch hitter, there is someone on base, so I would think you want to move the runner over not necessarily strike out or walk.
@ WaLi:
I think it depends on the game. If it’s a close game and you’ve got a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs, a contact hitter would probably be more valuable. If he’s leading off the inning for the pitcher or for someone else, you’d just want the better offensive player.
@ Suburban kid:
Those wiley micks!
I swear to Thor that WordPress goes out of its way to break whatever theme I’m using on my blog. DeRosa damn the constant upgrades!!
Is it just me or do you guys hit “attach a file” 90% of the time when you mean to hit “submit comments.”
This really should have been a fanshot.
EnricoPallazzo wrote:
Your parents.
IF TookSteroids
THEN ShutUpAboutIt
ELSE DestructionByMediaAndFans
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/23/if-youre-busted-for-steroids-its-better-to-clam-up-than-to-come-clean/
@ dmick89:
That makes sense. I’m just wondering if Jackson isn’t a good enough player to start, if he is good enough to be on the bench. I guess he does have other skillsets though such as defense and speed.
@ Aisle424:
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/sammy-sosa-tv
45 minutes…
@ WaLi:
Keep in mind the platoon advantage he’d have in that role. If that is the role he ends up in, he’d be primarily batting against righties.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/a-closer-look-at-brett-jackson.html