Let me start by saying that this post is not the least bit inspired by Anthony Rizzo's 3 strikeouts in 6 plate appearances vs lefties this season. It's 6 plate appearances. That's it. This is something I've been meaning to write since the 2012 season ended and I'm just finally getting around to it.
We all know Anthony Rizzo had a rough debut season in 2011 with the Padres. We all know he had a pretty good first season with the Cubs last year. We can probably guess that he was terrible vs lefties in 2011 because he wasn't very good overall. We'd also probably guess that he was better vs lefties last season. We'd be wrong.
In 2011 Rizzo had only 33 PA vs lefties (appears he was given days off when lefties were on the mound) and he hit .172/.273/.345. That's a .279 wOBA and an 80 wRC+. In 2012 Rizzo had more than 100 plate appearances against lefties and hit .208/.243/.356. His wOBA was .260 and his wRC+ was 56. He was 12th worst in baseball in wRC+ vs lefties last season.
CAIRO projects a .321 wOBA vs lefties this season, which is average to slightly below average. As a 1st basemen, it's not at all good since the average 1B is going to have a much higher than average wOBA. Only 15 1st basemen, out of 41, who had 100 plate appearances vs lefties last year had a wRC+ below average (under 100). Rizzo's was 4th worst, better than only Carlos Lee, Ike Davis and Justin Morneau).
So far in his young career, Anthony Rizzo has only 146 plate appearances vs lefties. His 61 wRC+ is pretty bad. I don't think it's time to even start thinking about platooning the guy. Certainly not when the Cubs aren't expecting to contend.
He's still young and should improve, but it is something to watch. Some batters struggle vs same-handed pitchers. Rizzo could be one of those guys. I'm hoping we'll see his numbers vs lefties regress towards his numbers vs righties, but there is no guarantee it's going to be any good.
Comments
kind of surprised that ike davis has been so bad against lefties, i really like him (rizzo, too).
GWQuote Reply
aaron harang —> rockies
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
That was only 2012, but Davis has a 78 wRC+ vs lefties in his career over 372 PA.
I always view unusual splits with skepticism, but there are some players who are more extreme than others. Davis could be one. So could Rizzo. I’d bet that neither are, but Rizzo sure has looked like a completely different hitter vs lefties. Some of that is bad luck (BABIP), but he hasn’t squared up nearly as many pitches vs lefties.
It’s just something I noticed late last year and think it’s worth paying attention to. If the Cubs get lucky this year and find themselves in contention and Rizzo is hitting so poorly vs lefties, the Cubs will have an interesting decision to make. Other than that, I don’t think it’s anything the Cubs will have to decide on for at least a couple years.
dmick89Quote Reply
1. David DeJesus, CF
2. Starlin Castro, SS
3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
4. Alfonso Soriano, LF
5. Nate Schierholtz, RF
6. Welington Castillo, C
7. Luis Valbuena, 3B
8. Alberto Gonzalez, 2B
9. Carlos Villanueva, P
dmick89Quote Reply
aside: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/matt-garza-pushing-for-early-may-return.html
dmick89Quote Reply
One day, both Myles and WaLi might have this very moment:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=26052965&topic_id=&c_id=was&tcid=vpp_copy_26052965&v=3
Well, Myles anyway. WaLi has to deal with two (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I see Lilliton has been benched already. Cubs IF ———–> 100% less creepy.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I completely missed something.
Did Lillibridge hit on a minor?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Not last night.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I’ll take that as a “yes” (dying laughing)
So, what happened, or is this something I should just try to Google? 😀
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
He just looks like a paedophile is all.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
With that facial hair he looks like a pedophile. So hide your children.
dmick89Quote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
Fuckin Brit. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Having just had a little look at his Twitter, it seems Lilliput is quite the bible basher.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Actually that seems like a vote in favor of MB’s theory, then.
/doth protest too much
joshQuote Reply
VALBUENA NAME PUN!
Berselius37Quote Reply
The patented Schierholz dive and miss.
joshQuote Reply
RIZZO BOMB
Berselius37Quote Reply
New cubs announcer guy: RBI is a bit of a hollow statistic; it’s tied to opportunity.
Consider me duly impressed.
joshQuote Reply
Villanueva pitched a great game
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I’d move out of the way and let the ball hit my wife in the face
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Agreed, I thought he looked great tonight. They had no clue on his change up.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Apparently we’re leaving him in, so there’s still time for horrible failure
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Really just one hard it ball was the HR. 3 of the hits I remember were bloop hits.
Hmm they brought him back out.
WaLiQuote Reply
I thought that Heyward ball was heading out of the stadium.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
It sounded like it.
WaLiQuote Reply
Bases loaded, no out —-> no runs
/Cubs run expectancy
Rice on busQuote Reply
Bases loaded with no outs for your 1, 2, and 3 hitter. You figure you are scoring at least 1.4 runs there, right?
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
False. Cubs.
WaLiQuote Reply
Fuck.
WaLiQuote Reply
Heart Attack Cubs
BerseliusQuote Reply
fujikawa setting up marmol for failure nicely.
GWQuote Reply
WTF is it with Cubs catchers trying to steal bases (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
New market inefficiency?
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
I guess they’d never expect it.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Marmol has no faith in his slider.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
That was not unexpected though
BerseliusQuote Reply
Feldman, Wood, Villanueva. Any of them can have a game like Villanueva’s tonight, or Feldman’s last night, with regularity. Regarding Garza coming back, too early to see if that impacts Theo’s promise to Feldman…
SVBQuote Reply
Hey, at least Marmol didn’t walk the world this time.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ SVB:
I mean, a night like Feldman’s last night with regularity, and a night like Villanueva’s tonight is not out of the question, as long as you don’t ever count on it.
SVBQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
Did Marmol throw an sliders?
BerseliusQuote Reply
Guys, did Marmol have it tonight?
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yes: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=4&day=6&year=2013&game=gid_2013_04_06_chnmlb_atlmlb_1%2F&pitchSel=461791&prevGame=gid_2013_04_06_chnmlb_atlmlb_1%2F&prevDate=46
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Meatballs? Yep.
joshQuote Reply
That tomahawk chop chant has to be the most annoying fucking thing ever. How can they just blast it through the speakers in the middle of the pitches?
WaLiQuote Reply
I wonder if I can punch myself in the face hard enough that I forget the Cubs ever existed.
joshQuote Reply
Sveum needs to make a team rule of no more steals.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I believe what you are looking for is called “whiskey”
BerseliusQuote Reply
Any chance the Cubs could pull off a straight trade of Marmol for Aroldis Chapman?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Depends on how good Reds security is.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I bet the Cubs would throw in Soriano, to sweeten the pot.
joshQuote Reply
Postgame thread up
http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/postgame-thread-cubs-5-braves-1-cubs-bullpen-5.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
5 runs in the 8th and 9th. (dying laughing) Glad I did something other than watch.
dmick89Quote Reply