I've heard all throughout the season, and I've even said it myself, that Anthony Rizzo was the 2015 Cubs MVP. Over the last few weeks, I've started to think that just can't be the case any longer. Rizzo has had a great season, but Kris Bryant's second half has pushed him ahead of Rizzo. Their batting lines are very similar.
Kris Bryant: .277/.368/.492
Anthony Rizzo: .279/.389/.516
Rizzo's been better at getting on base and has hit for a bit more power. Bryant's wOBA is .371 and Rizzo's is .386. The wRC+ is 136 and 146. Anthony Rizzo has been the better hitter, but not by a whole lot.
Depending on the fielding metric, one or the other has been better, but Bryant has played tougher positions defensively. UZR has Bryant at 5.5 runs defensively and Rizzo at -9.3. Baseball Reference's fielding stat has Rizzo at 10 and Bryant at 2.
MVP to me isn't as complex a process as is it to Myles. It's simply the player who has been the most valuable. For MVP, I ignore pitchers becasue they already have an award. I think it would be silly to honor a pitcher for two awards when position players are far more important in terms of wins generated. Plus, it seems fairly straightforward in that the pitchers get an award and the position players do too. So no pitchers. Add an Outstanding Player or whatever and I'm fine with choosing any position.
Rizzo's rWAR is 6.3 and Bryant's is 5.7. Rizzo, for what it's worth, has had 51 more plate appearances, but that's not a large enough difference to make up for the win differential.
Bryant's fWAR is 6.3 and Rizzo's is 5.5. That's the difference in defense showing up and I find defensive stats to be something worth ignoring for the most part.
Baseball Prospectus has Bryant with 5.8 BWARP and Rizzo with 5.1. BPro has them about the same in terms of runs saved defensively.
Rizzo has had another great season. He's going to be valuable in a Cubs uniform for a long time, but he's not been the best position player on this team. Kris Bryant, with the except of the slump he went through about a month into his career, has been outstanding considering he's 23 and a rookie. Rizzo was the most valuable player last season for the Cubs, but he's passed that on to Kris Bryant who looks primed to win that non-award for many years to come.
Comments
Personally, I’d get rid of the MVP and have a position player equivalent of the Cy Young (call it the Ted Williams Award or something.) Or maybe keep the MVP and have awards for position players and pitchers of equal prominence. But since pitchers aren’t excluded from the CYA (either by definition or historically), I see no reason not to consider them. And Arrieta is The Cubs’ most valuable player.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
One note: the “defense” column on Fangraphs is UZR + positional adjustment. So, Rizzo is actually +2.8 according to UZR compared to +10 DRS.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
They’re not going to change the name of the MVP after this many years and though it isn’t defined in the MVP award, it has for some reason always seemed obvious to me that you have one award for pitcher (Cy) and one for position players (just so happens it’s called MVP). It would be pretty easy to add that rule.
dmick89Quote Reply
Duh. I knew that. Thanks for correcting it.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think they changed the way they did it a while back, so it’s pretty confusing.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
If you got rid of Kris Bryant, you would replace him with Javy Baez. If you got rid of Jake Arrieta, you would replace him with Tsuyoshi Wada.
mylesQuote Reply
I think this one is as much of a toss-up as the Grienke-Arrieta Cy Young. And that is awesome.
Though it is rather obvious what Scott Boras would say:
ceruleanQuote Reply
Baez has a career 65 wRC+. He’s probably better than that, but even this year, it’s 100 with a BABIP over .400. The Cubs probably would have moved Coghlan to 3rd. I’d love to see Baez turn things around, but I’m FAR from convinced he’s anything more than a career AAA player. I know it’s been fun to see the improvement from him, but that improvement still comes with a lot of negative signs (unsustainable BABIP, high strikeout rate, low walk rate, low power numbers). Baez is not Kris Bryant. If Baez replaced him you might be lucky to get replacement level value out of him over a full season. You also might get a really good season, but I think people have gotten ahead of themselves with him, but I do think he’s made himself a good trade piece this offseason so for that I’m quite happy.
dmick89Quote Reply
For the record, I am on board with saying Arrieta is the Cubs’ MVP, because he is. The losing steaks that they had were pretty much guaranteed not to last with Arrieta in the rotation. That has been huge.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Best player on the Cubs? Jake Arrieta. Easily.
Most valuable player on the Cubs: Kris Bryant with the caveat that I don’t recognize pitchers for this award
Who would the Cubs miss if the player vanished in the Departure from The Leftovers? Jake Arrieta, obviously.
Also, everyone is free to define MVP any way they want. It’s vaguely defined and open to different interpretations. It’s why complaints about who wins this award (and for that matter, the Cy Young award) are pointless. That a team’s place in the standings takes up so much of the discussion, or that we revert to using old, outdated statistics (Len and JD have talked more about ERA over the last month than they had in all their time before it) is strange to me.
dmick89Quote Reply
Pretty crazy that Bryant has really been all that and a bag of chips his first go-around. Even with the alarmingly high K% rate (which is actually lower than I thought it would be his first year; I had him pegged for closer to 35%, and maybe worth 1-2 WAR overall; happily am I wrong).
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Yeah, he’s been better than I expected, but considering how good he’s been, he’s been better than any reasonable fan thought.
dmick89Quote Reply
Is it crazy to think he could get better? That would put him in the Trout/Harper tier, but I’m not sure what improvements would get him there. I’m not expecting his K% to drop much.
Not that not improving would be bad, since 6 WAR players don’t exactly grow on trees.
PerkinsQuote Reply
As much as Cubs fans hate to hear this, it’s probably a little crazy to expect any 6 WAR player to get better. I don’t care who you are. It’s just not really all that reasonable.
I do think we’ll see some areas improved, but over time we’ll see other areas get worse. For example, I think he’ll hit for some more power over time, but his base running value and defense will probably decline.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Also, this assumes Bryant is a true 6 WAR player. He might be a 2 WAR player. Could be a 10 WAR player. we don’t know yet. I’m willing to bet he’s better than 2, but probably not going to be worth 6 or better every year.
dmick89Quote Reply
Yeah, even in mine.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
This year has seen a ridiculous number of strong rookie seasons from the left side of the infield (especially if you count Russell as SS).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Very true. I hope 6 WAR is his true talent level, but figured it’s unrealistic to expect that or better every year.
That said, I’m savoring every moment in case the best isn’t yet to come.
PerkinsQuote Reply
That was an ugly Iowa win, but I’ll take it.
dmick89Quote Reply
All I know is that Kris Bryant has been the best rookie I’ve seen in a Cubs uniform by a wide margin. Kerry Wood is the next best.
dmick89Quote Reply
How was this post not titled “Anthony Rizzo I’mma let you finish…”
GBtSQuote Reply
At least I was still able to come away with confidence in the defense, but by Grapthar’s Hammer it’s going to be a long season with that rookie O-Line.
berseliusQuote Reply
Cubs are 36 pitcher strikeouts from breaking Cleveland’s MLB record set last year, so all we need is for Kyle Hendricks and whoever pitches tomorrow (Haren?) to strike out 20 guys each. Doable.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Jake Arrieta is the MVP of the Cubs no question about it.
sllimkcajQuote Reply
Speed. Up. The. Replay. Process.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
47 pitches. 4 innings. I could do with this version of Hendricks.
ceruleanQuote Reply
That was a tough replay.
dmick89Quote Reply
Now that is the kind of call replay was designed for.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
That’s the problem. Replay is supposed to correct obvious mistakes. If you have to take that long, the call should stand.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I almost feel bad for Wagner. Almost.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Bryant and Rizzo don’t want 100 RBIs, I guess.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I think the point of replay is to correct mistakes that can be corrected. It’s up to the manager to decide which ones are obvious and which ones they want to waste a challenge on.
dmick89Quote Reply
Hendricks being perfect through five feels remarkably different from Arrieta being perfect through five.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
The managers can do what they want, but if the reviewers don’t see anything quickly, the original call should stand. As it is, it’s slowing the game down too much.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Bryant is getting impatient.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I don’t know if Kris saw a single pitch in the zone there.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Is Bryant not aware they were going to pitch around him? One of the worst at bats of the year for him.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
It’s only a handful of minutes per game. If that.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
It disrupts the game. I find it frustrating. I’m not alone.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
You can say that again.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
In almost afraid to see what his WPA is today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Bryant and Rizzo don’t want 100 RBIs, I guess.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Terrible strike call on Coghlan there.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I think there should be a time limit placed on them, but pitching changes used to make fans angry because it disrupted the game. Change has a way of disrupting things. We could argue about whether or not certain changes are good for the game. I think there are WAY too many mid-inning pitching changes. I don’t know the answer, but I want the umps to get as many calls right as possible. It all comes down to how many mistakes we can tolerate.
dmick89Quote Reply
Scherzer with 2 no hitters this year. Impressive.
Berry should just try to steal home here. Nobody gonna drive him in tonight.
dmick89Quote Reply
17k no-hitter for Scherzer. That has to be the most dominant performance since what, the Wood game?
ceruleanQuote Reply
Last three innings for Max: K K K K K K K K Popout.
ceruleanQuote Reply
And no walks.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Not that this game matters, but The Cubs really deserve to lose this one.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rodney sucks.
dmick89Quote Reply
Wood’s gamescore on 5/6/1998: 105
Scherzer’s today: 104
ceruleanQuote Reply
Wow.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Nice pick Rizzo.
ceruleanQuote Reply
That “wow” was directed at the game, but I suppose it also applies to Scherzer.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I took it as both.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Austin Jackson is a pretty cool pickup.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
What’s K-Rod doing on such a lousy team?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Wow, Bryant.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Terrible night for Bryant.
dmick89Quote Reply
Wikipedia is already updated with Scherzer’s performance—second only to Kerry for a 9-inning game.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Well that’s fucked, they put Scherzer’s listed first. Fix it!
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi,
I am the type of person that if I start to fix Wikipedia, I will never stop. No thanks.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Nice. Time to turn it to the Pirates.
dmick89Quote Reply
96 wins! Though I sure hope they don’t play like today in the post-season.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Cubs win. Everyone breathe.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Today’s post title seems ironic after this game.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
Breaking: Chapman is nasty.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
If only the Reds could have wriggled out of that bad inning yesterday.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Greinke gave up a homer. Not Cy Young worthy.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Who knows what could happen in one game? I don’t expect too many tins from the Cubs in that game.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I expect Arrieta to pitch well and Cubs hitters to strike out a lot.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I’m watching The Dodgers but there’s no Vin. Heartbroken.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Did something happen to him?
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
I just heard he has a cold. Too bad. At least it’s nothing serious.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
That’s good to hear. I become concerned when people step away from what they’ve dedicated their lives to. Like when Ernie Banks was supposed to be at the Cubs convention earlier this year, but had to cancel. He passed away within a few days.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
cerulean,
I admit, I wasn’t thinking about Vin’s health at all, just how disappointed I was not to hear him. Now I feel kind of selfish (though I’m glad it’s just a cold).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Is Vlahos still Vlahosing after 96 wins? What, Theo is a failure unless they win five World Series now?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
96 fucking wins!
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Pirates lost last night. If Cubs win and Pirates lose again then there’s a home wild card game!
WaLiQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
Have they won the World Series yet? What if some of the prospects and rookies don’t pan out? What a disaster.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Season will be a major disappointment if they don’t finish the regular season with 98.
dmick89Quote Reply
WaLi,
That would require The Reds winning twice in a row. I don’t even know if that’s physically possible.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
They last won 2 in a row @ Milwaukee just prior to the 13 game losing streak. Seems about right they should win 2 in a row to end the season. Give ’em a head start on next year.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Cubs only have 89 expected wins for a luckiness adjustment of 7. I recant all optimism. Even if they win the World Series, it will be a disappointment because they didn’t overcome enough adversity.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Adam has a new and very good post up: http://obstructedview.net/uncategorized/why-mlbs-wild-card-system-is-far-from-broken/
dmick89Quote Reply