RC has been insistent about wondering how the Cubs may contend in 2013. I've been meaning to write something about it for some time, but can't help but think the Cubs are a long way away from contention. 2013 doesn't seem possible, but it's always possible. How can they do it?
After thinking about this post for awhile I finally realized what this slogan was all about:
Trying to figure out how the Cubs can contend this year, next year or 5 years from now is the Cubs way of life. It's also the Cubs Way.
Before we can start we have to set a couple parameters. The payroll will be $120 million for our contending team. The Cubs have little or no interest in trading prospects for veterans as it would affect their long-term plan. We won't be trading prospects because of this. This is one person's plan. There could be a million of them. I've split this into multiple parts because it would just to be too long to have as one post.
We need to figure out who the Cubs have, how good they are expected to be and how much money they are going to be paid. We can then begin to build a roster that contends within our estimated payroll. Our goal here is to build a contender for 2013, which means we're not going to be trading valuable assets like Matt Garza. Or Ryan Dempster for that matter. The goal is to contend next year and both of them are valuable beyond what they're paid or will be paid.
The Cubs have only 3 players with guaranteed contracts next season: Carlos Marmol ($9.8 million), David DeJesus ($4.3 million) and Alfonso Soriano ($18 million). Gerardo Concepcion also has a guaranteed contract that pays him $0.6 million next season. Paul Maholm has a $6.5 million option or a $0.5 million buyout. The Cubs have $31.8 million guaranteed next season to those 5 players. One of them is highly unlikely to be of any value at the MLB level and the other may or may not be brought back (Maholm).
Arbitration Eligible
Geovany Soto, Blake DeWitt and Matt Garza are eligible for the final time. Randy Wells, Chris Volstad and Ian Stewart are eligible for the 2nd time while Starlin Castro will be eligible for the first time.
Garza and Castro aren't going anywhere for our contending team. Wells and DeWitt are gone. If Soto bounces back at all this season it becomes interesting whether or not ot keep him, but for now he's gone. We'll look at Stewart later, but for now he's on the bubble.
Garza is likely to earn $13 million in arbitration. We'll lock him up to a long-term deal to lower that total in a bit. Castro, eligible for the first time, could see a raise up to somewhere as low as $3 million and maybe as much as $6 million. I'm going to guess it's somewhere in between and we'll call it $4.5 million and move on.
Since we're going to be contending we're going to go ahead and sign Garza long-term. We already calculated Garza's value and found that he's worth a 5-year, $63 million extension. Here's how we'll pay him from 2013 through 2017: $8 million followed by $13.75 million each of the remaining 4 seasons.
Garza would no longer qualify as an arbitration player at this point, but one of our guaranteed contract. Those are now up to $39.8 million.
Castro is the only player we're definitely locking up in arbitration and we already decided to go with $4.5 million. Our tentative total at this point is $44.3 million.
Free Agents
Ryan Dempster is really the only free agent we'd consider re-signing. In fact, this team is a contender so we're re-signing him. The Cubs aren't going to get more value for less money on the free agent market. We'll give Dempster a 2-year deal for $20 million. Our 2013 total is now up to $54.3 million.
Our roster
We already have $54.3 million committed, but only the following players under contract in this experiment: Carlos Marmol, David DeJesus, Alfonso Soriano, Matt Garza, Starlin Castro and Ryan Dempster. We could later decide to bring back the likes of Volstad, Wells and Stewart, but for now, just those 6.
Value
Let's estimate their value. We don't have to be precise. This isn't about being precise. Teams aren't going to decide if they're a contender by calculating the WAR as best as possible and going from there. I'm coming up with about 12 WAR from those 6 players (Garza 3.5, Dempster 2, Castro 3.5, DeJesus 2, Soriano 1, Marmol 0).
A replacement level team wins 48.6 games so we're only up to 60 wins. We have to add at least 25 wins while keeping the payroll within a reasonable budget. We'll say $120 million. So we have $65.7 million to spend.
In the next part we'll take a look at the free agents and see where we can most improve and how much it will cost. We'll also add in the cost controlled players like Anthony Rizzo, Brian LaHair and maybe Brett Jackson to get a better idea where we're really at.
This is where I'm going to ask you for some help. Throw some free agent names around for me. Who do you think the Cubs could target to help them contend next year? Throw out a contract amount and I'll go from there.
Could drive a truck of money to Josh Hamilton’s house.
David Wright could possibly be available as well, given the Mets’ financial woes. He’s got a pricy club option for 2013.
Jake Peavy could be another SP, as I’m pretty sure the Sox will not pick up his $22M (!!!) option. Greinke would obviously be a guy to target, but I’m pretty sure he’s going to get extended in Milwaukee.
Cole Hamels and Zack Greinke come to mind. Each of them would want at least five years at anywhere between $18-24MM per season. They’d also cost the Cubs their second- and third-rounders.
I wonder if a catcher is available. Like maybe Miguel Montero. He would be expensive but I don’t think he costs a draft pick.
I’d look at Kelly Johnson too as a short deal.
Mobile Rice wrote:
Actually, since Cole Hamels is old school, he renegotiated a reserve clause into his contract and is a Phillie for life.
@ GBTS:
For an old school pay rate, I take it.
I guess Greinke and Hamels really depend on whether their teams want to splurge to keep them. If not I think the Cubs might be open to coughing up those 2nd and 3rd round picks. That’s quite a bit invested into pitching but honestly I don’t see anything on the free agent list I really really want as a position player.
GBTS wrote:
He’s only being paid in The Love Of The Game, so it won’t even cost the Phillies any money.
Ryan Doumit will be available, and probably relatively cheap. He’s had a decent last few seasons.
Josh Hamilton was mentioned… would probably eat a pretty large chunk of the 60 mil remaining for one player, but maybe you could pull a Hendry and backload the hell out of it.
Over at 3B, maybe the Red Sox don’t want to pick up the 13MM for Youkilis? Sounds unlikely, and admittedly my only source on that is a friend from Boston who says everybody out there hates Youk (can’t really understand why, but..) He is having a down year as well.
In terms of pitchers that might immediately help you contend, there’s Erik Bedard who’s been somewhat reliable and would probably come cheap. He’s on a 1 yr/ 4.5MM deal this year. And there’s this Zambrano guy who’s been pitching pretty well down in Miami… (would never happen, of course).
I want no part of Cole Hamels. Numbers be damned, I’ve always thought he was crazy overrated.
/irrationallity
Thanks guys. Keep it going. Greinke, Hamels and Hamilton were the 3 guys I was thinking of. I think the Cubs have to get one of them. I’d probably go for Hamilton. Due to his addiction you probably get a discount so if he stays sober you probably end up with a team friendly contract.
A lot of people believe that Greinke would crack in Chicago due to anxiety. I think he’ll pitch well enough regardless or where he is, though in his few starts at Wrigley he’s been less than awesome.
@ mb21:
Where do you play him though? Do you just DFA Soriano and trade DeJesus at that point? The two-pronged nature of the Cubs plan makes me think that if they’re going to cough up draft picks (because the Rangers are for sure going to offer arb to Hamilton) they go for pitching.
I think one or both of Hamels/Greinke get extended though so that point may become moot.
The Cubs could trade for Ryan Howard. He’s a perennial MVP candidate!!
@ PFD:
I like Doumit a lot, but the guy absolutely cannot stay healthy.
@ mb21:
I read a take on Hamilton’s contract situation (totally forgot who now) but they mentioned the possibility of setting up a bunch of vesting options after an initial four year guarantee to protect the team. So you might be able to net a team-friendly discount as well as safeguards against a decline either because of age/wear-and-tear or personal hijinks.
@ GBTS:
The same goes for Erik Bedard
@ Rice Cube:
I’d be shocked if that happens, at least for more than one season on the deal. Plenty of teams are going to want Hamilton, and bidding is probably going to get rid of that possibility unless some team offers a stupendous amount of money in those vesting deals.
@ Berselius:
I wouldn’t be too surprised to see vesting contract offers. Hamilton has the same risk of all aging players but the additional risk that most don’t have. At least not publicly anyway. It’s going to cost him some money. He will still get paid though.
@ mb21:
I think it’s more likely a team gives him more guaranteed money and just buys insurance
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/minor_league_baseballs_are_built_to_different_specifications_than_major_lea/
I didn’t know major league balls were different than minor league ones.
@ Berselius:
I don’t know, but that seems unlikely to me. There’s a lot of risk involved for the team. If I was an owner I wouldn’t be offering him free agent money. I want at least 10% off and when the option years kick in I’ll pay 100% of free agent value. Maybe even a bit more. But not the first 4-5 years of the deal.
Hamilton is riskier than average, if only because he gets hurt a lot. Addiction be damned, the guy has only played like one full season when he has played.
Torii Hunter, if we’re looking for old-ass right fielders who can’t hit much anymore.
I advocated Hamilton as part of a “what the hell” type sign, but if we’re seriously going to talk about contention, I think he’s probably going to be too expensive.
Would the Cards pass on extending Yadi?
BJ Upton?
@ josh:
I think they already extended him
Rizzo homered again.
@ josh:
I feel like if the Cubs are going to miraculously contend in 2013, it will involve a lot of very cheap production from B-Jax in CF.
Move Upton back to 2nd!
@ Berselius:
Aw dang!
GBTS wrote:
haven’t ran any #s on this but if you are to win a WS, you’d need a bunch of guys who are going to greatly outperform their pay rate (both guys who are under team control as well as several relatively cheap FAs).
$65.7M for 25 wins = $2.628M/win. basically a 50% discount. even if you go out on a limb and say that lahair, bjax, and rizzo all add 3.3 WAR apiece for free, now you’re looking at 15 W for $65.7M or $4.38M/win which is a 20% discount. for every player that you spend that $65M on. what are the odds of finding, say, 5-7 players that are worth $82.5M that will play for $65M?
Mike Napoli?
Delmon Young?
Ethier?
Edwin Jackson?
There’s also Mary Reynolds who paired with B Jax and LaHair would give the Cubs a nice trio of free swingers.
@ GBTS:
The Cubs need more lack-of-hustle and only-produced-when-it-doesn’t-matter players.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Yep, seems like a longshot. What if Sori retires and the Cubs get that pay back? Does that open the door a little wider?
@ josh:
I don’t see how Soriano walks away from all that money. The only way he doesn’t get paid is if he retires. I think he can tough out 2 more years for $40 million. Hell, I’ll have to tough out another 30 years for about $2 million.
@ Mucker:
Just trying to think best-case scenario.
josh wrote:
sure, i guess i’m just saying that if you’re gonna legitimately try to contend next year, you should look for guys who might be undervalued. take
@ Mucker‘s list. i think two of these players will be shitty next year and the other 2 will play above their salary. no idea which is which, but i think that these are the guys you go after. sign 7 marlon byrd types for (marlon byrd salaries) and if you get really lucky, 5 or 6 of the 7 will perform way above their salary and you end up with those other 15 wins you need.
blow half of your cash on hamilton or some other expensive player and you drastically reduce your odds, unless you’ve already got a very solid core of team-controlled players.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I agree, Hamilton is a waste for serious contention. I’d only advocate Hamilton as a Sosa-esque placeholder. Tough job, though, since he’ll eventually shoulder the blame for the Cubs mediocrity, just like Sosa did. Actually, that’s a terrible thing to wish on another human being, and I retract any desire to sign Hamilton. I’ll just tune into Ranger games when the Cubs get too painful.
@ josh:
Oh I hear ya. I’m just a pessimist. (dying laughing) It would be great if he did though.
@ Mucker:
$65 M for 25 wins doesn’t seem possible, to me. Is competing with pure pitching a possibility in this division? It seems like a difficult division for pitchers. The Giants made sense in the West, since noone out there can score runs anyway.
Anibal Sanchez will be a FA, and cheaper than Hamels or Grienke. I think the Cubs need a 2B unless Cardenas somehow works out. Is Brian McCann going to be a FA?
The Cubs should trade Soriano for Carl Crawford right now. Boston can put Soriano in LF and be out of the Crawford deal. The Cubs can stick LaHair in LF and call up Rizzo. Then Crawford can play OF next year, and either trade LaHair or DeJesus this offseason.. While this is a stupid idea, I can see the Cubs acquiring some existing contracts with their flexibility that other teams want to get rid of. Plus there are fewer and fewer good FA’s.
@ josh:
Well I don’t know. There are some good bats in this division. But if the Cubs could put a rotation of Garza, Grienke, Dempster, Optimus Prime, Maholm…….it could be pretty formidable. But they also need bullpen help. That said, they would have to get an impact bat or two as well. I think the Cubs could contend for a WC with that rotation, an improved bullpen and an impact bat or two but that’s going to be very costly unless Rizzo and BJax could be those impact bats. Rizzo has the potential but BJax looks to be going in the opposite direction. I don’t know, I think I’m just going to start rooting for the Nats from now on. (dying laughing)
@ Nate:
I don’t see how the Cubs would want to replace Soriano’s contract with an even worse one.
@ Mucker:
I don’t have the energy to really start following another team. I think you’re right about the impact bat. Catcher and 3B are good places to find that person, but there may not be anyone there to find.
@ Mucker:
I realize its a bad contract, but think of it like this: its really a 5/100 contract, and its going to cost you 2/yr in each of the next 2 years because you’ve already spent that money on Soriano. So it’s almost like a 5/64 contract broken down like this: 2, 2, 20, 20, 20 when you consider what you’re adding to your payroll. Maybe I’m wrong, but I think Crawford will still provide some value.
@ josh:
Yeah, Napoli would be that bat but he’s going to get paid. If Wright and Youk don’t get their options picked up, I think the Cubs will pursue. Lots of holes and the Cubs need to spend some money to fix them. What would you consider the Cubs biggest weakness? I think it’s their offense, followed very closely by their bullpen. If they can completely fix one of those and patch the other, I could see the Cubs flirt with .500 and maybe a WC.
@ Nate:
I thought you couldn’t trade players while they were injured.
@ Nate:
Yeah, I see what you’re saying. I would just like to see the Cubs get out from underneath the Soriano contract and then have the payroll flexibility to really make some quality signings and such.
It might be cool to set up a “Plan A” and “Plan B”. My thought for Plan A involves getting the two top pitching free agents (assuming available) in Hamels and Greinke. If they are not available, then you go to Plan B where you throw medium-level money at the next tier of pitchers (Edwin Jackson? Anibal Sanchez as nate suggested?) such that all you’re losing is money and not draft picks. Plan B is sort of half-assing it though because it only gives the guise of contention without anything elite backing that up.
In the previous CBA there was a restriction on the number of Type A and B free agents a team could sign in a single offseason…is there such a restriction in the new CBA, now that Type A/B is done with?
@ Mucker:
That’s what I see. One or two more solid arms in the rotation may clear up some of your bullpen woes. I think Castro can get on base well, and I think LaHair provides some ability to drive runs in, but I would like to see one good hitter behind LaHair and maybe a doubles type guy somewhere in the lineup. Napoli will fetch a dollar, for sure.
I’m also willing to bet that David DeJesus gets traded this July to a contender with an OF need. (Boston?, Atlanta?) He’s on a bargain contract designed to do just that. That way the Cubs can go for a higher upside FA for the OF, assuming they’re trying the contend in 2013 route.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dempster traded and then resigned by the Cubs, or surprised if they let him walk to obtain 2 draft picks next year.
@ Nate:
That definitely seems to be what they had in mind when they signed him. He’s doing well enough in that respect, too, bouncing back more or less as they expected.
EP ran a few numbers to show how difficult it is going to be to contend, but let’s add in LaHair and Barney and say they’re 5 WAR between them. You now need 20 WAR and have roughly the same amount. Let’s be generous and say that we expect 3 WAR from Rizzo. We’ll trade DeJesus and add Hamilton and pay him about $15 million next season. That’s $10 million more than DeJesus and we’ll say we add 3 additional WAR. We still have about $50 million to spend and we need about 14 wins. Just thinking briefly about this I don’t see how it’s possible unless the Cubs get at least 2 of the top free agents on the market. I know I said we wouldn’t be trading anybody, but if we sign Hamilton we could deal Jackson. Maybe we could somehow get a quality starter in return.
@ Nate:
I think the Cubs could realistically trade DeJesus and Dempster. But if we are talking about the Cubs contending, then I think both of those guys provide value and should be kept. If the Cubs could somehow sign a Napoli, Wright or Youklis, then a Cubs offense with Castro, LaHair, Rizzo, Wright/Youklis/Napoli could be a decent offense paired with an above average rotation.
@ Nate:
I wouldn’t be surprised if they did that, but it will be next to impossible to contend if they let him and a team friendly contract go. It would probably be good for the Cubs in 4 or 5 years.
@ mb21:
I think you would really have to give up an MLB ready player, but that doesn’t totally set the clock back on the minors, since that guy was coming up anyway, right?
@ Rice Cube:
Good question. If type A and B are gone then there shouldn’t be a restriction unless they reworded it somehow.
LHP are pure death for LaHair. 2 hits in 25 PA this season, .130/.288/.222 in 67 MLB PA, about the same for his MiLB career.
@ mb21:
I think the deterrent is, assuming you keep the first rounder (Cubs now second-worst, half game behind Minnesota), how many subsequent round picks are the Cubs willing to give up? However, not every free agent is going to command that $12MM arb deal so they could theoretically sign a bunch of those and make up the difference that way and still build for the future. That’s why I suggested the next-tier guys and stop gaps like Kelly Johnson.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Is there a lefty masher who he can platoon with? I guess Soriano.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Where do you find his career splits for the minor leagues?
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/22/david-ortiz-doesnt-give-a-expletive-about-what-you-think-makes-a-leader/
@ mb21:
http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com/mlsplits/playerinfo/445933
The I-Cubs offense asploded for 18 runs (so far) today
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Cool, I wondered who took Sackmann’s data and ran with it
Oh, he only has the 05-10 database, not anything new
@ Berselius:
Yeah, 2011 numbers still not live. But with players like LaHair, you still get a decent sample.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
@ Berselius:
Thanks. it hasn’t been updated since 2010 so I stopped checking that site out. I’d just add what was stressed in The Book: we know more about a hitter based on his overall batting than we do by either his batting vs lefties or vs righties. LaHair isn’t a bad platoon candidate though, but I’d still give him the rest of this year.
The first two players I would sign are C Miguel Montero and 2B Kelly Johnson. They are left-handers, ++ Fielders, and good for around 10-20 home runs/season. They aren’t huge names. Montero (29) and Johnson (31) are fairly young. They’ll command around 10-12 Million/4 Years each. Catcher is an obvious hole (unless Steve Cleavage ends up far better than we think), and Darwin really strikes me as more of a backup than a starter (or star) in middle infield. Soto or Beef Castle will platoon/backup Montero.
The rotation will be improved by bringing in Rafael Soriano and Mike Adams. ~3 Million for Soriano and around ~4-5 Million should get Adams. Mike Adams works well within the system, and Soriano is a reclamation project.
I would want to reign in a potential number #1 starter. Anibal Sanchez is a guy it seems no one has talked about. He’ll command 12-16 Million, roundabouts, if he keeps up this pace. Sanchez is young (28). He has been above average consistently and is having a career year (8 Starts, 2.32 ERA). He’d be my preference if we spend big.
I don’t think LaHair can keep up his current pace. I do think he’ll be a league average LF who can pop 15-20 Bombs yearly. Anthony “Ratt” Rizzo is going to be ready to start at first. Brett “The Jet” Jackson would start at Center. DeJesus will stay in Right Field. Soriano will be “convinced to retire” before the season opens.
I’ll offer a 1-year, 7 Million deal to Placido Polanco to shore up the hot corner. He’s average with the bat, but is excellent with the glove, so he’ll help out ground-ball reliever Mike Adams and ground-ball throwing starter Jeff Samardzija. Defense may win championships but it doesn’t win you compensation rights.
Anibal Sanchez will be my #1 and Matt Garza will be my #2. I’ll let Maholm walk as the #4/#5 starter I get from Darwin Barney will shore up the back end. Jeff Samardzija is cost-controlled. He plays well into the improved defense, so he’ll be the #3 Starter. That leaves me with the #4 and #5 starter positions.
This leaves me short one starter. I’ll opt for three reclamation projects to fill out the #4 and the #5 and the spot starter slots. Chieng-Ming Wang, Francisco Liriano , and Daisuke Matsukaza were all thought of as top-of-the-rotation starters. I’ll give all three another chance to catch lightning in a bottle. I think Wang and Lirano will be around 1 Million and I can’t see Dice-K making more than 500k.
Michael Bowden and Travis Wood will compete for the #5 Starter spot.
Andrew Jones and Austin Kearns will act as platoon partners. Jones will platoon with DeJesus in right while Kearns will platoon with LaHair in Left. He’ll platoon with Kelly Johnson. Ty Wigginton will provide days off for Polanco and Rizzo. I’m slotting each of these guys around 600k. Geovany Soto will back up at Catcher.
I think that Chieng-Ming Wang and Francisco Liriano will make the roster. I have Wang settling into the role of 5th Starter. The Opening Day Roster will be in the next post.
Yo holmes that’s wack
Pezcore’s opening day Cubs Redux NL Central Title Competitive Team:
SP Anibal Sanchez
SP Matt Garza
SP Jeff Samardzija
SP Travis Wood
SP Chieng Ming-Wang
RP Francisco Liriano
RP James Russell
RP Rafael Dolis
RP Michael Bowden
RP Casey Coleman
SU Mike Adams
CL Rafael Soriano
C Miguel Montero
1B Anthony “Ratt” Rizzo
2B Kelly Johnson
3B Placido Polanco
LF Brian LaHair
CF Brett “The Jet” Jackson
RF David DeJesus
(LHP) RF Andruw Jones
(LHP) LF Austin Kearns
(LHP) 2B Darwin Barney
INF Ty Wigginton
C Geovany Soto
@ mb21:
Yeah, it’s not a big worry to me, but he just cannot hit LHP, at all. FWIW, Rizzo isn’t much better.
Darwin Barney wouldn’t bring back a #4-5 SP from A-ball, let alone an MLB ready one.
@ Pezcore:
I don’t think Barney could bring back a SP, Geo on the other hand might get something of value, but even then not that much.
Nice to see Chris Volstad got some of his mojo back.
@ Berselius:
He’s been steadily better this year. Eh, I’ll move Wood back in as the #4 then.
Baseball-Reference has Darwin Barney as the Cubs most valuable player at 1.7WrC. His average is down but he is getting on-base more and hitting more doubles.
@ Rice Cube:
Well, at least it’s nice to see him get some run support.
@ Berselius:
I think you guys are underestimating Barney’s value. Last year he had 2.2 fWAR, 1.7 rWAR and 1.9 gWAR. So far this year he already has 1.7 rWAR, .9 fWAR and .7 gWAR. Per 700 plate appearances he’s better than average thanks to his defense. I wouldn’t trade him. I’d rather get 2 WAR for Barney for league minimum than pay someone else free agent value.
What Chris Volstad are you guys talking about?
@ mb21:
I never said he wasn’t valuable. I said no one is going to give you an MLB-ready 4 or 5 starter for him.
@ mb21:
The prospect (TM) pitching for Iowa at the moment. Unless the game is over and I forgot to pay attention, which sometimes happens. Guess he had another bad inning.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Depends if the 4-5 starter is a league minimum guy or not. That kind of starter is below average so would you trade a below average player for an average one? If the below average one has 6 years of service time you probably don’t, but if he has a year or two you would. The Cubs probably wouldn’t make that trade.
@ mb21:
The TRANSFORMED one, obviously.
Sean Marshall isn’t even a league average producer and they got a quality number 4 in Travis Wood, a back-up outfielder in Dave Sappelt and a prospect in Ronald Torreyes. The Reds were a bit silly in their desire to land Marshall when you think about it.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&players=0
Neftali ———-> DL, sprained UCL in elbow.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Ouch. TJS? or not that bad?
@ mb21:
Teams overrate RP regularly, but they don’t tend to overrate slap-hitting glove merchants.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Maybe they can trade him to the Yankees, since Jim Hendry is working there now
@ josh:
Latest from the Rangers is that it’s jsut a sprain, and he’s on the 15-day. BUt I wouldn’t be surprised to hear that he’s going to see Dr. Andrews very soon.
“Apparently today is World Goth Day. I bet they’re all just sitting in their rooms, saying ‘I don’t care’.”
/my daughter
@ mb21:
I didn’t realize how good of a year Pedroia had in 2011.
@ Suburban kid:
Uh Da’ee. Uh Mommy. Uh May?
/my son
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
That doesn’t mean they underrate them. Adding it up in my head I get about $20 million in surplus trade value after this season for Barney. Of the players on the roster right now only Castro has more trade value. Barney isn’t a great hitter by any means, but he’s a good fielder and a good baserunner. Maybe Samardzija depending on how good teams think he really is.
I wouldn’t bother him trading him though. The Cubs aren’t going to end up getting one of the 5 or 6 best 2nd baseman so the difference between Barney and anyone else they could acquire just isn’t worth the money.
@ josh:
Pedroia is good at baseball.
@ josh:
Are you trying to teach him Klingon?
@ josh:
Yes, but I think it’s reasonable to doubt his defense saved 17 runs that year.
Going back to last year Barney has just .2 fWAR less than Rickie Weeks. Barney has 2.2 more rWAR than Weeks.
@ Suburban kid:
(dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
He can say “Mommy” with precision, but “Daddy” loses consonants. In fairness, he knew the dog’s name before either of titles.
@ josh:
Translation: Daddy likes the computer a lot.
@ ACT:
Probably right. Or maybe he had a good season at 2B and happened to get a lot of tough plays. The metric may be accurate in telling you what a guy did, even if it is not a reasonable measure of what he is capable of (because luck is too high of a component, or something).
but when all your value comes from defensive metrics and we know defensive metrics are not all that (or in Colin Wyers view-worthless) its hard to gauge his value.
Wood ———-> Cubs
Castillo ————> DL
@ josh:
Colin Wyers is fond of pointing out the Robinson Cano consistently gets more putouts and assists than Pedroia, but for some reason, the metrics like Pedroia better.
Berselius wrote:
I admit, the first thought that popped into my mind was, “What? I thought he retired.”
@ dylanj:
I agree, but he’s had a reputation as being a very good defender even when he was at SS. So I’m more inclined to believe the metrics since they agree with the scouting reports.
There are only a handful of 2B that I’d rather pay market value to have than having Barney at league minimum.
@ ACT:
I would assume that’s a difference in range, off the top of my head. Maybe the Yanks are better at shifts, though, so Cano doesn’t have to move as much. I wonder if that gets factored in. Really, if the guy was standing within a few feet of where the ball would be hit about every time, then range isn’t as important. But then that means defensive metrics tell you less.
I’m just going to say there is a dirty uniform multiplier and move on.
@ ACT:
Kerry retired to do us the favor of not having to worry about context when discussing Travis Wood (dying laughing)
Q. How much does a hipster weigh?
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A. An instagram
@ Suburban kid:
In 2011, maybe, before it was cool
Oh do the Cubs have a shittastic lineup today.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Loading up on RHB to face a lefty
the royals are shitting all over giavotella right now. cubs should definitely be on the phone over there
@ Berselius:
Your starting 3B is Joe Mather.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
He feeds the Hope Monster.
I think Kelly Johnson is a top top-6 2nd Basemen. I’d rather have Jose Reyes, Dustin PEDroia. Rickie Weeks and Robinson Cano, but Johnson is having a breakout season defensively and is on pace for 20+ home runs. He strikes out a lot but also walks a lot.
Kelly Johnson hits for a low average, and has been inconsistent, so you won’t be paying premium value for him anyway. He’s been worth 2.2 WAR so far this year.
@ GW:
Getz just got hurt. Doubt they want to deal right now.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Is he really worse than the man they usually put there?
Johnson is a left-hander so you can further utilize him using a platoon.
I have a feeling we’re going to get into Rajai Davis territory with Kelly Johnson in this thread.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
and yuni is hurt. and they are putting gio on the short side of the platoon with irving fucking falu. they could have barney for the low low price of gio and felipe paulino (who is neck and neck with luis mendoza for a rotation spot over there, (dying laughing))
@ ACT:
At the plate, probably not. With the glove, almost certainly.
@ GW:
I doubt Yost will be allowed to let him rot. I know what the prevailing wisdom is, but I suspect Ned is going to get a phone call telling him that the kid is up to play.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
from the front office that resigned yuni in the first place? somehow i doubt that
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
You have to trust the process, MO
@ GW:
I also don’t think Ned is going to be managing there much longer. It’s becoming apparent he’s not getting the most out of his roster. There’s too much talent there for them to be this bad.
@ Berselius:
DALE SVUEM MAKES THE TOUGH CALLS
Muskat:
What International Free Agents are available in 2013? Relievers, Catchers and Middle Infielders from Japan sometimes bring good value.
@ Rice Cube:
Too bad they’ve been trailing by well over 31 runs entering the 9th.
I thought that with Aramis gone, we would stop scoring meaningless runs when it doesn’t matter?
@ GBTS:
Wait, this is a grindy never-say-die team. Not a lazy hit-when-it-doesn’t-matter team. Nevermind.
GBTS wrote:
which game specifically are you talking about?
@ EnricoPallazzo:
All of them.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
They are the seventh best team in MLB, after all
James McDonald is good at throwing baseballs.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
(dying laughing)
new old shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/games/cubs-go-for-8-in-a-row.html
So I am a little late, but here are a couple of other names to consider on the fa market
C-
Doumit
Montero
Mathis
Napoli
1/3-
E Encarnacion
M Reynolds option
Wright option
Yuk option
2/SS-
Cano option
Johnson
S Drew option
CF/OF-
Melky
Sizemore
Upton
Victorino
Super sub-
Teahan
SP-
S Baker option
F Carmona option
B McCarthy
E Santana option
Relievers-
Mike Adams
Camp (good as a 6th inning guy)
B Lyon
S Burnett option
Broxton
Soria
Street
Capps
The former Leo Nunez
Adding a new closer will allow marmol to revert back to his successful role of first guy out in a pinch, while adding a quality closer.
Stumbled into this web site by chance but I’m sure glad I clicked on that link. You actually answered all of the queries I’ve been dying to answer for some time now. Will actually arrive back for a lot more of this. Thank you so much