Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (1:00 ET, FOX, 9/29/2013)

In Bears by myles35 Comments

Last Week

The Lions pulled away in the 4th quarter en route to a 27-20 win at the hapless Redskins. The Bears dominated the Steelers 40-23, though it was closer than the score indicated.

Bears Run Versus Lions Run Defense

Matt Forte finally broke out against the Steelers, sort of. The bulk of his 87 yards came on a 55 yard run; take it out and you have 15 carries for 32 yards, which isn't all that great. Than again, that's not how it works. Cutler also had a memorable 13 yard run late in the game (culminating with a huge hit on a Pittsburgh defender). For all of the talk about the vaunted Lions defensive line, they are not a good team against the run. This is likely the easiest test the Bears will have faced this year, which means I'd expect a steady dose of Forte. On the whole, it's looked like Forte has lost something, but it's still young on the season; a poor week here and I'll be worried, though.

Lions Run Versus Bears Run Defense

Reggie Bush has been sort of a revelation in his limited time. He's not a great running back, but he's the same sort of dual-threat that Forte is, and very dangerous out of the backfield as a receiving option. As a runner, though, I'm more afraid of Joique Bell. He's more explosive than Bush (but has the same sort of threat potential out of the backfield). Neither is a top-tier running back, but a healthy rotation of the two will allow the Lions to always present a threat to run, sell the playaction, and have a safety valve capable of receiving the short throws. The Bears are a great defensive team against the run, so this will be a very important matchup.

Bears Pass Versus Lions Pass Defense

Jay Cutler has looked pretty damn good this year, hasn't he? It's hard to parse out how much of it is him and how much is the Trestman effect (I'd wager it's more of the latter than the former), but when it gets down to it, Cutler is 13th in DYAR but 3rd in QBR (a pretty meaningless stat, but not as maligned as I thought at first). The Lions are a stout defensive team against the pass, but they are dead last in protection against RBs. I'll leave it up to you to guess what that means. 

Lions Pass Versus Bears Pass Defense

Matt Stafford has been pretty damn good this year. He's 5th in the league per FO's DYAR (behind Rodgers, Ryan, Rivers (!), and P. Manning), and that honestly sounds about right. Of course, it's easy to be good when you have Calvin Johnson on your team, but that's taking the easy way out; Burleson was also pretty solid for the Lions this year.

Unfortunately for Detroit, Burleson injured himself and is out for the season. This will allow (hopefully) the Bears to really key in on Megatron and shut the passing game down. After Johnson, Stafford really favors his two running backs, and the only other person who sees targets is Brandon Pettigrew, who might be the worst TE in the game today. The Bears have allowed big games from opposing squad's #1 WR so far this year, so it's definitely possible for Stafford and Johnson to take over this game, but I have to think that with Burleson out, the Bears can afford to aggressively blanket Calvin and hope that Pat "Who?" Edwards doesn't beat them. 

That being said, the Bears' D-Line has been bad this year. Give an ordinary QB time and he'll look very good. Give a very good QB time and he'll cut you a new asshole, regardless of who he's throwing to. 

Special Teams

Detroit has an actively bad ST unit, but the Bears haven't been as sublime this year as in year's past. Still, this a definite advantage to Chicago

Prediction

I think the Bears are the better team, but it's hard for me to pick them in Detroit. I don't see them stopping the aerial assault that the Lions are going to put up in this game, especially because Detroit's dynamic running game is going to keep Chicago honest. Part of me feels like this is setting myself up for disaster, but I think the Lions get up early, Cutler throws a WTF interception, and the Lions win comfortably.

Detroit 31, Chicago 21

(3-0 straight up, 1-1-1 ATS)

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  2. Chet Masterson

    This post is both late and irrelevant, but it makes me feel interesting and in the know, so here goes my thoughts on Jake Arrieta…

    I had really good seats to watch him pitch in person on 9/19 in his fairly dominant start on a getaway day in Milwaukee. I had the following observations..

    1) I’ve watched so little of the Cubs this year I didn’t realize until that day that Arrieta only pitches from the stretch
    2) I think the spelling of his last name sucks. I think it should be Arietta; Arrietta at a minimum.
    3) I was really impressed by the easy effort of his mid 90s stuff. His delivery seems like he should be topping out at around 90.
    4) The curve or whatever he throws as an out pitch was really pretty. It’s more 12/6 than anything else and it was really sharp that day
    5) The analysis in the Arrieta post mirrored what I saw in person. He was incredibly dominant one turn through the order. Then in the 4th, he went through the heart of the order a 2nd time and got 2 lucky line outs before the 3rd one finally found a hole for a hit. He settled down again after that, but it did feel like the hard hit balls for him came in groups
    5) Brian Bogusevic destroyed a ball in that game that was probably the 2nd longest homer I’ve ever seen live. The longest I’ve ever seen was when Russell Branyan hit one about 1,000 feet off of Greg Maddux

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  12. Rizzo the Rat

    Hoping the Rangers win the Wild Card if only to avoid the necessity of watching playoff games in Tropicana Field.

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  14. Rizzo the Rat

    Truth be told, Soto has been productive more often than not in his career. This year–playing time aside–is no exception, as he has a wRC+ of 114 from the catcher position. Miserable 2012 season notwithstanding, he probably deserves more playing time than he’s getting.

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  15. dmick89

    And why can’t baseball keep up with the Super Bowl? Don’t tell me the Super Bowl is bigger. We know that. We’re looking at the TRENDS. — tangotiger

    I’d bet almost anything that football has grown. Maybe not the Super Bowl, but football itself. I know college football has. The answer is simple: baseball fans are older and they’re dying and baseball isn’t as entertaining as the other sports to the average person.

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  16. dmick89

    Andrew wrote:

    It’s interesting, I thought Hairston was a great signing at his price for what the cubs needed and navarro was a headscratcher, guess that was wrong. Guessing right on these fringe guys seems like a crapshoot, except for the A’s because they seem to always sign the best scrapheap players. Whoda thunk Marlon Byrd would have a 5 rWAR season this year. That guy is weird. he hits more home runs than ever the year after he gets caught doping. Meanwhile, Melky Cabrera, who I thought was a good signing at his price, lays an egg. baseball is a crazy sport

    This happens a lot with regulars too. Who’d have guessed that Starlin Castro would be this bad? It happens less frequently because they get more PA, but it still happens. Happens more frequently with starting pitchers, I think.

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  21. SVB

    Twins and Cubs finish with identical records. Who picks in the draft first? Cubs because their record last year was worse than the Twins?

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  25. SVB

    @ dmick89:
    Cubs increased their win total by nearly 10% over last year. heh heh. Shouldn’t that save Sveum? That’s nearly a whole letter grade, though it’s like from a H- to a G-. Maybe we’ll get up to a D+ next year.

    Honestly, I don’t see a big reason to can Sveum, except for the regression of Rizzo and Castro. How much of that is Sveum vs hitting coaching staff vs true talent, etc. I have no idea.

    Anyway, Twins had exactly the same record last year and drafted 4th. This year for their reward in futility they pick 5th.

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  26. GW

    @ dmick89:

    the nba is a lottery. all the non-playoff teams are in, and teams with worse records have a better chance at the top pick, but all the spots are filled in the lottery.

    i’m not sure how the nfl does it. do they flip a coin?

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  27. dmick89

    Forgot about the lottery. What are the benefits of that? Just so you don’t try to lose? I don’t really see that as a problem in MLB. Any reason to believe the NBA would worse? I’d hate to finish with the worst record and end up with the final pick in the lottery. That would fucking suck.

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  28. Suburban kid

    dmick89 wrote:

    I’d hate to finish with the worst record and end up with the final pick in the lottery. That would fucking suck.

    The Cubs would find a way to do it.

    /fuck you Cubs

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  29. GBTS

    @ dmick89:
    Only the top 3 are decided by lottery. After that it goes by record. So if you finish with the worst record in the NBA, the worst pick you can possibly have is #4.

    And yes, I personally think tanking would be prevalent in the NBA without the lottery system. Just a hunch.

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  32. srbutch5

    @ Berselius:
    Correct. There was a time without a lottery and end of the season was just the bottom 5 teams trying to lose out to draft the next (insert high school superstar). The lottery hasn’t completely stopped this, but it has helped a little. And it gave Chicago Derrick Rose! (3% chance)

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  33. srbutch5

    Drafting 1st or 2nd in the NBA draft is very different from baseball. The NBA usually has 2-3 impact players drafted that become All-Stars immediately or within a year. It can turn around your franchise in one season…again see: Bulls, Chicago

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