Way Too Early Look at 2014 Cubs

In Projections by myles24 Comments

Well, the Cubs didn't trade anyone today. With DeJesus and Schierholtz in the fold for 2014 (though either could be traded in the offseason, I really doubt it), the Cubs 2014 roster (with no signings) looks like this: C: Welington Castillo 1B: Anthony Rizzo 2B: Darwin Barney SS: Starlin Castro 3B: Mike Olt LF: Junior Lake CF: David DeJesus RF: …

The Cubs Are “Lucky”

In Commentary And Analysis, Projections by myles13 Comments

Brett at the Nation had a good article about the Cubs' horrid luck this year, and so did frequent commenter on that site Dr. Wimsey. I agree with the main thrust of both arguments. However, I'm here to tell you it's the BEST thing that could have happened this year.  The Cubs are, by rights, a .500 team by any …

Obstructed View Season Predictions

In Projections by myles55 Comments

Our long national nightmare is finally over! The Cubs play today at 1:35 ET, and at around 5:00 ET I will be drunk and the Cubs will be a game out of first place. Now that the season is here, I rounded up all of our contributors and asked around for predictions. Without further ado, let me present them!   …

PECOTA Percentiles are live

In News And Rumors, Projections by dmick89Leave a Comment

Baseball Prospectus has updated their player pages to show the PECOTA percentile forecasts. PECOTA percentiles are now available to subscribers. Those of you new to BP, or to PECOTA, might wonder why we publish percentiles in addition to the weighted-mean projections for players, which we’ve already released. The answer is that forecasting is an inexact science; the future is not …