The 2014 Cubs Projections are available now in the Bill James Handbook, or online. I thought I'd post them here and discuss a few things. First, the BJ projections tend to use a higher league average so please consider that when viewing the projections. In fact, please consider the league average of each projection system when you're looking at projections. …
2014 Cubs Projections: MusingsMarcel, Position Players
Baseball Musings published an early version of the Marels projection (MusingsMarcel). They did only position players right now, but it's always fun to look at projections. The Marcels are usually done by Tangotiger and he'll probably do them for 2014. These are based on Tango's Marcels method. Below are the Cubs players currently on their 40-man roster. Only players who …
Want or Don’t Want: Jacoby Ellsbury
Jacoby Ellsbury's season isn't finished yet as the Red Sox continue on in the ALCS. He's probably not begun to think a whole lot about his upcoming free agency, but it will be the talk of the offseason. The centerfielder turned 30 on September 11th and will be entering his age 30 season at the tail-end of his prime. I …
Way Too Early Look at 2014 Cubs
Well, the Cubs didn't trade anyone today. With DeJesus and Schierholtz in the fold for 2014 (though either could be traded in the offseason, I really doubt it), the Cubs 2014 roster (with no signings) looks like this: C: Welington Castillo 1B: Anthony Rizzo 2B: Darwin Barney SS: Starlin Castro 3B: Mike Olt LF: Junior Lake CF: David DeJesus RF: …
Matt Garza’s trade value
It's assumed by many that Matt Garza's trade value is high enough that he will almost certainly be traded. As I was last year, I remain unconvinced. Before we get into his actual trade value, the Cubs have three options with Garza. Trade Qualifying offer at the end of the season Sign extension The first two are connected and the …
2014 Cubs: Can They Compete?
dmick89 has finally been cured! Not of his back problems, but of his boundless optimism for all things Cubs. That article is more-or-less required reading for this article, but I'll very quickly sum it up and say that there isn't a whole lot of hope that the Cubs are going to be actual contenders next year or the year after. …
The Cubs Are “Lucky”
Brett at the Nation had a good article about the Cubs' horrid luck this year, and so did frequent commenter on that site Dr. Wimsey. I agree with the main thrust of both arguments. However, I'm here to tell you it's the BEST thing that could have happened this year. The Cubs are, by rights, a .500 team by any …
Obstructed View Season Predictions
Our long national nightmare is finally over! The Cubs play today at 1:35 ET, and at around 5:00 ET I will be drunk and the Cubs will be a game out of first place. Now that the season is here, I rounded up all of our contributors and asked around for predictions. Without further ado, let me present them! …
PECOTA Percentiles are live
Baseball Prospectus has updated their player pages to show the PECOTA percentile forecasts. PECOTA percentiles are now available to subscribers. Those of you new to BP, or to PECOTA, might wonder why we publish percentiles in addition to the weighted-mean projections for players, which we’ve already released. The answer is that forecasting is an inexact science; the future is not …
How much is Jeff Samardzija worth?
With news that the Cubs have tried to extend Jeff Samardzija beyond his arbitration eligible seasons not once, but twice, I thought it might be a good idea to look into how much he's worth. Steamer projects 2.4 WAR and ZiPS projects 3.3. You can see these yourself on Fangraphs. Let's just split the difference and go with 2.9. Samardzija …