Here's a preview of today's game. I'll add info on the rest of the series later tonight.

Pitching Matchup

Matt Garza, RHP (-,-,-,3.63) vs Wandy Rodriguez, LHP (3.25, 125, 3.99, 3.73), 6:05 PM CT

Garza is finally back! He looked sharp in his rehab outings, capping it off with a six strikeout, zero walk six-inning shutout in Iowa his last time out. He'll be restricted to 85-90 pitches, but it vibes like everything is already working for him. A good indicator that he's back in the groove is if he gets lots of grounders tonight.

Wandy's having yet another solid season. I couldn't believe it when I picked him up for peanuts in my FLB league, especially considering that this league counts QS instead of wins. He's had good luck with BABIP this year (hence the low ERA) and bad luck with fly balls (hence the not so great FIP). His TTL is probably somewhere in the middle. Wandy's pretty much a fastball-sinker-curveball guy, and his curve is a bit of a yakker which is always fun to watch. 

Team Overviews

Overall, that's about what I expected for the Pirates. They're an average team, which is a huge improvement on what they've been for the last two decades.

Injuries

Andrew McCutchen has a sore knee and is day to day. SP James McDonald hit the DL with shoulder soreness at the beginning of the month. He's started throwing again but his return is still weeks away. Fellow SP Jeff Karstens was shut down in spring training with shoulder soreness. He's throwing again and needs a few more rehab starts before joining the team. Charlie Morton had TJS last June, and is almost back to the big league team. He's made a few rehab starts, one was shut down for shoulder soreness. At least it's not the elbow I guess.

Garza's back, so there's not much to report on the injury front for the Cubs. 

Other pitching matchups

Wednesday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.49, 85, 3.21, 3.47) vs Francisco Liriano, LHP (1.64, 38, 2.53, 3.39), 6:05 PM CT

The Pirates were all set to sign Liriano to a 2/12.5 deal last December, but Liriano broke his non-throwing arm. The contract negotiations dragged on until February until the final contract was a one year, one million dollar contract with an option for 2014. That's an expensive arm injury. Liriano has rewarded their perserverence with two great starts since coming off the DL, and if he  pitches to his projection that deal will be the steal of the offseason. I'm kind of surprised that a non-throwing arm injury would kill his value that much. 

Samardzija did it all in his last start, striking out seven in eight innings and making up for his two runs allowed by hitting a two-run homer. It seemed to me that he was walking a lot more batters this year, but his BB% is up by less than a percentage point from last year's numbers. 

Thursday: Edwin Jackson, RHP (5.76, 98, 3.84, 3.70) vs Jeanmar Gomez, RHP (2.78, 141, 4.41, 4.60), 11:35 AM CT

Even if Jackson pitches to his FIP the rest of the way, it's going to take a long time to drag that awful ERA down. A big part of that nasty ERA is a 57.8% strand rate, which I'm going to go out on a limb and say is not sustainable. He's coming off two okay-to-good starts, but he hasn't had a truly dominant start all year.

Gomez is filling in while most of the Pirates rotation is on the mend. He's had problems with the HR ball, but his four starts look decent until you look at the IP totals (4, 5, 5, 4.2). Looks like it's a bullpen day on getaway day. He's a sinker-slider-changeup guy, emphasis on sinker.

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The Mets have lost seven of their last ten games, including a sweep by the Pirates and a near-sweep by the Cardinals. Luckily for the Mets, they have the Marlins in their division so it will be difficult to drop into last place. I was surprised to read that they've placed foruth in the division for four straight years – it seems like just yesterday they were blowing big leads in the standing late in the season. This is a team in much the same rebuilding situation as the Cubs with most of the talent in the farm system still in the low minors. They do however have Zack Wheeler, number eleven on BA's preseason prospect rankings, and also this Matt Harvey guy (though he's not officially a prospect anymore). After those two, it's pretty slim pickings for young players on the current roster who will be a big part of the next big Mets team. David Wright signed a big extension and will continue to be great, but Harvey and Wheeler are going to be making peanuts for a while. The only other youngish player with upside is 26 year old Ike Davis, who plays solid defense at 1b but has a much better reputation with the bat than he deserves. It's tough to stick at first base with a career .327 OBP. I was surprised when the host of the Mets podcast that Aisley recently linked was calling for the Mets to get rid of Davis, but now that I look at his numbers, both this year and in general…yuck.

Team Overviews

2013 NL ranks in parens

Harvey has been amazing this year, but the rest of the Mets rotation has been pretty awful. The Mets bullpen has terrible numbers, but most of that seems to be due to a few fringe guys who pitched an inning or two getting lit up. Their top 7 relievers in terms of IP all have a FIP below 4. 

Injury News

Matt Garza looked sharp in his last rehab outing, and says he's ready to go. No word yet if the Superfriends agree with him. Luis Valbuena is day to day with a sprained finger on his right hand. Arodys Vizcaino is still a few weeks away from pitching, though oddly enough he's been rehabbing with the team instead of at Mesa, which is where Scott Baker has been working.

The Mets have a whole pile of pitchers on the DL, mostly relievers, but the biggest name is Johan Santana. He's out for the year (and maybe his career) after shoulder surgery in March for a torn capsule. IIRC that's what Prior ended up being diagnosed with when they finally opened up his shoulder. *pours one out*.

Top prospect Zack Wheeler had a scare when he developed some shoulder pain last week. It turned out to be just mild inflammation and he's only missing one start.

Random news and notes

Shawn Camp has hung the nickname "Kevin Gregg Maddux" on Gregg, and not just for his glasses and ability to paint the corners. The rest of the bullpen has been raving about his clubhouse presence out there, and that he's like an extra coach on the team. 

Mets outfielder and team lightning rod Jordany Valdespin has been in the Mets media lately after ranting about being thrown at in the last Pirates series. He spent a long time watching a HR of his and was plunked as a pinch hitter in the next game. The NY Daily News blasted Valdespin for his actions and the Mets for putting him out there when there was little doubt that he was going to be drilled. Mets manager Terry Collins defended his player, saying that "he doesn't answer to the fans".

Pitching Matchups

Friday: Matt Harvey, RHP (1.44, 61, 2.95, 3.53) vs Edwin Jackson, RHP (6.02, 88, 3.71, 3.63), 1:20 PM CT

Harvey is the proud owner of a 62:14 strikeout to walk ratio. He throws five pitches, but his main pitch is definitely his 95-96 mph fastball. That pitch is hit the hardest of his pitches, but sets up all the others. Per BrooksBaseball, Harvey has a TAv of .170, .116, .157, and .193 on his sinker, slider, curveball, and changeup respectively. Yowza. Here's a gif from a few weeks ago overlaying his fb and slider:

Jackson managed to pick up his first W of the year against his former team, but the numbers still don't look that great. He pitched less than six innings, walked two and struck out three. I know I'm a broken record here, but he's lost velocity on all of his pitches except his changeup dating back to last year. His peripherals are still great and he's had some bad batted ball luck, so there's still a silver lining there. 

Saturday: Jeremy Hefner, RHP (4.61, 149, 4.61, 4.54) vs Scott Feldman, RHP (2.53, 109, 4.17, 3.96), 12:05 PM CT

Hefner is basically Santana's replacement. His fastball tops out at 91, so he relies on a lot of movement to get outs. His cut fastball is probably his best pitch.

Feldman looked great again in his last start, giving up only a solo HR while striking out six. His peripherals are still meh-ish but he's looking like the pitcher that the Superfriends were hoping to get when they inked him this offseason. 

Sunday: Dillon Gee, RHP (6.13, 129, 4.74, 4.43) vs Travis Wood, LHP (2.03, 91, 4.47, 4.28), 1:20 PM CT

For some reason, I've heard a lot less grumbling about the Sean Marshall trade lately. Wood shut out the Rockies for seven innings in his last start and while he didn't strike many out, he only allowed two hits. The only difference that I can see in his approach through the pitchfx data is that he's throwing more sliders this year, but not that many more. He's had a lot of BABIP luck, especially on his relatively hittable fastball.

Gee has been a mess this year for the Mets. After posting two replacement level ish years in 2010 and 2011, Gee posted a 3.71 FIP in about 100 innings last year. This year, however, his strikeout and walk rates have regressed to near what they were in his first two seasons, and teams are making him pay. Gee throws mostly fastballs, changeups, and sinkers. 

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The Nats have had a bit of a streaky season so far. They've swept the Mets, White Sox, and Tigers and have been swept by the Braves and Cardinals. They're currently riding a four game winning streak. Inconsistent offense has plagued the team this year (sounds familiar). I'm wishing I was back home this weekend, as just about everyone I know seems to be going to a game in this series.

Team Overviews

2013 NL Ranks listed after each stat.

The Nationals offense my be scuffling, but one player you can't blame is Bryce Harper. He's hit 10 HRs already, and has a .424 wOBA. That's not enough to make up for the rest of the team though – the next best hitting regular is SS Ian Desmond at .323. First baseman Adam LaRoche has been ice cold, posting a .196/.291/.314 line with a .270 wOBA. It's a far cry from his .271/.343/.510/.361 from last year. 

Checking up on Cubs position players, Anthony Rizzo leads the team with a .387 wOBA. I guess we're not going to hear any more rumbles about sending him down. Whatever they fixed in his swing must have worked (laughing). Overall the numbers are far better than I expected. Schierholtz, Valbuena, DeJesus, and Castillo have wOBAs of .376, .375, .363, and .331 respectively. That's five regulars who have all performed better than the *second best* hitter on the Nats. I'm not sure if that makes me feel better about this offense or even more frustrated at the lack of translation into run scoring.

Injury News

Jayson Werth has a bum hamstring that has caused him to miss a few games over the past week or two. He's expected to return on Saturday.

Kyuji Fujikawa is slated to return to the Cubs for this series (Dolis was already optioned to make room). He had an uneventful rehab, and is expected to set-up for Transformed Kevin Gregg. Scott Feldman left his last start with a stiff finger, but I don't think it's expected to affect him on Sunday. Matt Garza had his second rehab start on Monday with the I-Cubs. He went 3.1 innings and gave up one run, walking none with 3 K's. He apparently looked pretty sharp. He'll have two more rehab starts, then the Cubs will have to figure out who to demote. My money's probably on Villanueva at this point. Brett Jackson just came off a minor league DL stint for turf toe.

The Nats are lucky that Steve Clevenger is on the 60-day DL. Clevenger, you may recall, sparked a brawl in last year's Cubs-Nats series because the Nats players were swinging on 3-0 pitches while up 5 runs. This inspired an epic, profanity-filled rant from AndCounting on the WTF podcast. 

Headlines, stuff to watch for

Bruce Miles had a good piece in the Daily Herald today discussing the Cubs woes with RISP. Always nice to see someone with his reach bringing up the relative meaninglessness of the 'clutch' phenomena, as well as alluding to BABIP. 

The troughs aren't going anywhere. It's something that's fun to make fun of, but I don't really give a shit about the troughs. Improve the player facilities, add the revenue generators, keep the building from falling down. Those should be the priorities.

Let's be honest, we're tuning into this series for Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, the Cubs are just an excuse. Harper has hit like gangbusters this season, and Strasburg has been 'merely' good with a ~9.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. Should be fun

Probable pitchers

I list 2013 ERA, FIP-, xFIP, and ZiPS projection for each pitcher.

Friday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.09, 78, 2.99, 3.37) vs Ross Detwiler, LHP (2.50, 97, 4.21, 3.95), 6:05 PM CT

To me Detweiler's kind of the reverse of Bronson Arroyo, in the sense that I keep thinking he's a RHP. Ground balls are his game – he throws his 92 mph sinker most of the time. He's also got a pretty good curveball that he often uses as his out pitch. He hasn't been blown out in any start this year, but he's pitched out of trouble in a few games. 

Shark is 1-4, clearly he doesn't have TWTW. Though I think he and Villanueva are likely to cut someone if the bullpen keeps blowing their leads (laughing). He went six innings in his last start, allowing two runs with three walks and five strikeouts. He's seemed to be throwing a lot more pitches per inning the last few starts, and he's walked three or more batters in his last three starts. Maybe the extra off-day will help him get back in his groove.

Saturday: Edwin Jackson, RHP (6.39, 80, 3.53, 3.55) vs Stephen Strasburg, RHP (3.45, 92, 3.51, 2.66), 3:05 PM CT (FOX)

Jackson's peripherals all look great, he's just been hit hard this year. He has a LD% of 22.2, and the extra grounders he's been inducing seem to be finding more holes (.353 BABIP). There's plenty of reasons to think he'll turn it around. That said, I don't think his stuff has looked as crisp as usual this year, and all of his pitches are down 1-2 mph. I guess we have to take a Wait and See Approach.

Strasburg has been getting his strikeouts (though not quite at the same rate as last year), but he's been hit hard in a few starts. The Reds hung six runs on him in his second start of the season, and the Pirates got four runs off him in his last start. The most important numbers for Strasburg this year are his innings pitched per start. Pretty much the only complaint you could make with his starts is that they were often too short. He's pitched seven innings three times already this season, and it could be that he's laying off the strikeouts a bit to work deeper into games. 

Sunday: Scott Feldman, RHP (2.70, 116, 4.19, 3.93) vs Gio Gonzalez, LHP (4.97, 107, 3.65, 3.30), 12:35 PM CT

Feldman has been the anti-Edwin Jackson so far, posting gaudy baseball card numbers while having meh peripherals. It's certainly helped him that he stopped throwing the ball into the stands on throws to first base, like in his first few starts. His last two starts were great – he threw a complete game against the Padres, striking out a career best 12, then shutout the Rangers offense into the 8th inning on two hits before having to leave with "finger stiffness". He probably could have gone the distance there too. The Superfriends have to be happy to see this, and there's no way Feldman is still a Cub in mid-August. Unless there's a Cubbie Occurence and he blows his elbow out a week before the trade deadline or something *knocks on wood*.

Gonzalez had a monster year last year, posting a 2.89 ERA and 2.82 FIP leading to serious Cy Young consideration (I think he came in second). However this season his HR rate regressed (and then some), as well as his walk rate. Gonzalez has always been a pitcher to walk a lot of batters, and he's walking 4.74 per 9 this year. He's been blown up by the Braves offense (twice) and the Mets, and hasn't had a start where he's walked less than two batters. Gonzalez is mostly a FB-Sinker-Curveball guy, and his curveball is really good. 

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It's a short series, so I'll make this a short post. The Cardinals are good. The Cubs are not. 

Pitching Probables

I list ERA, FIP-, xFIP, and ZiPS FIP for each pitcher.

Tuesday: Lance Lynn, RHP (2.75, 80, 3.88, 3.71) vs Travis Wood, LHP (2.50, 91, 4.44, 4.35), 7:05 PM CT

Unsurprisingly for the Cardinals pitching staff, Lynn is a ground ball pitcher. His curveball is his best pitch, and he throws a lot of them to RHB. He had two rocky starts at Arizona and Pittsburgh, but has generally been solid this year. He was the Cards fifth starter last year, bouncing around between the rotation and the pen over the course of the season. With Lohse gone and his performance so far, he's likely going to stay there all year.

Wood's great ERA numbers are backed up by a .191 BABIP and a 6.3% HR/FB, so more runs are going to be coming his way. All six of his starts this season have been Quality Starts, and he worked into the eight inning in his last outing.

Wednesday: Jake Westbrook, RHP (1.07, 93, 4.05, 4.08) vs Carlos Villanueva, RHP (2.85, 96, 3.49, 3.97), 1:20 PM CT

Westbrook has yet to give up a HR this season, and he's also been walking a lot of batters. He hasn't had much BABIP bad luck (.286) so it looks like his run total is a combo of sequencing and a great defense. And the no homers. 

Expect a lot of sinkers. Westbrook is #3 in GB% over the last four seasons and change, and #2 in GB/FB ratio.

Villanueva on the other hand, has a great ERA number despite giving up a HR nearly every start. A lot of them have been solo shots, due to a stellar walk rate and a .210 BABIP.

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The Reds got off to a hot start, but have been scuffling a bit recently. A big reason is the lack of production from their two best players. Ace Johnny Cueto hit the DL with a lat strain in mid-April, and Joey Votto is hitting .231/.273/.357 dating back to the last series with the Cubs. 

Team Overviews

2013 NL Ranks in parens

Strange to think that there have been four offenses in the NL (DBacks, Phillies, Nats, Marlins) with worse numbers than the Cubs. They'll start scoring more runs as their numbers with RISP regress back to normal.

Injury News

The Reds injury sheet is pretty full. As mentioned above, Cueto is out with a lat strain. He was on pace to go on some rehab starts soon, but is now dealing with oblique soreness. Of Ryan Ludwick tore his labrum in the first game of the season, and should be out until July. OF Chris Heisey, who got a decent chunk of Ludwick's playing time, just hit the DL with a hamstring strain. IIRC he had a monster HR in the last series. C Ryan Hanigan is still out with the oblique strain suffered just before the last Cubs series, though he's improving enough to take BP. SP Mat Latos is day to day with a sore hip. 

Matt Garza finally got his first rehab start in on Wednesday, throwing two innings and change. This is his spring training, so he's going to need some time to get a feel for his pitches again. Kyuji Fujikawa threw a bullpen session yesterday and apparently looked much better than he did in his first. Ian Stewart's DL time is up, but I think the Cubs end up optioning him given how bad he's been and how decently Valbuena has been doing. 

Storylines and stuff to watch for

Like Garza, Jay Bruce doesn't appreciate negativity from fans either. Bruce is off to a poor start this year, and chastised/subtweeted some fans the other day. He's struck out 41 times already this year. 

Dusty Baker on OF Donald Lutz, recently called up after the Heisey injury

He brings a lot of energy. He has a ton of talent. He had struggled some down there. I told him this is a great opportunity. It's not like he really earned this spot. He was the next guy on the roster.

What a ringing endorsement!

Darwin Barney has only collected 10 hits in his return, but he's also drawn 8 walks. Hitting in front of the pitcher helps him some, but it's definitely seemed like he's been more patient behind the plate. He's been proving any Gold Glove nay-sayers wrong with his stellar defense so far this season. He'll be facing off against Brandon Phillips, once again the main contender for the award.

This was pretty funny from Borbon yesterday. Get the man an Oscar!

Probable Pitchers

Friday: Mike Leake, RHP (4.34, 111, 4.43, 4.44) vs Carlos Villanueva, RHP (2.29, 102, 3.23, 4.09), 1:20 PM CT

Leake went seven innings against the Cubs in his last start, giving up two runs and striking out five. Leake gets grounders and gives few free passes. He's also a great hitter (for a pitcher). He's put up 2.1 batting WAR so far in his career. For reference, Zambrano put up 5.2 WAR in his eleven seasons in the bigs.

Villanueva was knocked around a bit for the first time this year, though it's hard to assign too much blame to giving up a HR to Giancarlo Stanton. He has a BABIP of .176 on the year, so he's clearly due for some regression. He's a low-BABIP guy in general (career avg .276), but that's mostly because he's a flyball pitcher. He's actually been getting a decent amount of grounders this year, which is not that surprising when you realize that he's throwing twice as many sinkers as he was last year. In fact, it looks like he only added the pitch one or two years ago.

Saturday: Tony Cingrani, LHP (1.50, 50, 1.76, 4.08) vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.35, 71, 2.82, 3.41), 12:05 PM CT

This should be a pretty quick game with all the strikeouts. I was skeptical of Cingrani when the Cubs faced him last time – pretty much all he throws is his low 90s fastball. He must get a ton of movement on it, however, as he's posting the same double digit strikeout rates that he had in the minors. Given how well he's pitched, Mike Leake might be the one to find himself bounced from the rotation when Cueto returns.

Now that his control issues seem to be mostly out of the way, only one thing seems to be a stumbling block for the transformed Jeff Samardzija, namely, his pitch counts. Shark threw a ton of pitches in his last start against the Padres and only lasted five innings. Pitch counts aside, it's illuminating to see his total batters faced numbers in all of his starts: 28, 26, 25, 28, 26, 24. Gotta avoid the fourth time through the order. 

Sunday: Mat Latos, RHP (1.83, 71, 3.12, 3.45) vs Edwin Jackson, RHP (6.27, 87, 3.68, 3.62), 1:20 PM CT

Jackson has looked shaky in his debut as a Cub, but his last start was his first truly awful one. He was throwing more strikes, just getting hit hard. One silver lining was that his velocity was much better. I noted before his last start that almost all of his pitches were down ~2 mph from his career norms, this time they looked better. His secondary stats still look good, but I can't say I'm super excited to watch an EJax start right now.

Latos has simply been on cruise control this year. Over his last three starts, he's given up one run in 20 innings with 18 strikeouts and 5 walks. He's dealing with a sore hip, so maybe that would be enough for the Cubs to get a run or two off of him.

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It was nice to see the Cubs beating up on another team for once this year. They get to face another team that may be worse than they are in the Padres. The Padres have had a weird season so far. They opened the year with a series loss of the Mets, and have been swept by the Giants and the Rockies (twice!). However, they are currently coming off a sweep of the world champions, and managed to sweep the Dodgers in LA a week ago. Aside from the sweep of the Dodgers, they've only won a single game on the road.

Team Overviews

2013 NL Ranks in parentheses

It's strange to see a Padres team with a decent offense and lousy pitching. Their rotation is a long way from the days of Jake Peavy and Mat Latos. Sadly, the Cubs are missing the chance to be inexplicably shut out for eight innings by Jason Marquis this series.

Injuries

Kyuji Fujikawa is supposed to throw a bullpen session today, before heading out on a short rehab assignment. 

Cameron Maybin's wrist is in terrible shape. He has a bone bruise, cartilage problems, and possible ligament damage. There's no timetable on his return. The Padres have a bunch of pitchers in various stages of recovery from TJS, but none of the names jump out at me.

Storylines and stuff to watch

Chase Headley is the main asset that the Padres have to dangle, and he'll probably be traded by the end of the year. It looks like he was a super-two player, so he has one additional year beyond this one. Headley has been underappreciated due to playing half his games in Petco. He's 21st in the NL over the past three seasons in BB%, third among 3b behind David Wright and Chipper Jones. However, last year's .498 SLG was the first time he's been above .400 in that stat for a whole season. For his career, he has hit .301/.371/.464 on the road, which disproportionately includes a lot of other NL west pitchers' parks, so he could be the real deal on a different team. He's also a plus defender at 3b. For all the talk of the Cubs being best positioned to land David Price, Headley seems like a much better guy to go after and lock up. 

Expect an article or two from the Cubs media about the Cashner for Rizzo trade during this series. Cashner was bullpenned by the Padres for much of last year until another set of injuries hit him, and he started this year in the bullpen again before moving back to the rotation two weeks ago. If they can keep Cashner on the field, it could look like a pretty good trade for both teams. Cashner gets bonus points for his high BAR (Beard Above Replacement).

Pitching matchups

2013 ERA, FIP-, xFIP, and ZiPS projected FIP listed for each pitcher.

Monday: Clayton Richard, LHP (7.94, 200, 5.49, 4.47) vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.03, 74, 2.72, 3.35), 7:05 PM CT

It's fair to say that things haven't started out so well for Clayton Richard. He has a 9:11 K:BB ratio, given up four HRs, and has only pitched 17 innings combined in four starts. His ERA far outpaced his peripherals last year, and he was striking out a miniscule 4.4 batters per nine. As you might guess from that strikeout total, he's a sinkerballer.

Shark has 'lost' his past four starts, pitching a total of 23.2 innings with 30 strikeouts. Clearly he doesn't have TWTW. I would be surprised if he doesn't reach double digits in strikeouts in this game.

Tuesday: Edinson Volquez, RHP (6.39, 115, 4.40, 4.08) vs Edwin Jackson, RHP (4.76, 84, 3.74, 3.58), 7:05 PM CT

I was about to write that Edinson Volquez has fallen a long way, but after looking at his numbers I realized that his star never rose much to begin with. He had a good year with the Reds in 2008, posting 3.9 WAR, but he's struggled in every other season, whether from injuries or disappointment at continuing to lose the ROY vote or who knows what. Volquez gets strikeouts, but he also walks a lot of batters, which leads to short outings (also, runs). He averaged just over 5 IP per start last year. 

Jackson struggled again in his last start against the Marlins. He's been uncharacteristically walking a lot of batters this season, and I haven't seen any suggestion as to what might be up. He had a grip problem a few starts ago, but in general he's been kind of off. All of his pitches are down a MPH or two.

Wednesday: Andrew Cashner, RHP (3.26, 103, 3.41, 3.71) vs Scott Feldman, RHP (3.92, 148, 5.19, 4.04), 7:05 PM CT

Feldman had his first decent start of the year, pitching into the seventh and only giving up two runs. He still only struck out two batters, but it was better than some of the keystone kops stuff going on in his other starts. This was the first one where he did not have a throwing error. On the season, Feldman has given up 16 runs, 9 of them earned. He's got his work cut out for him if he wants to stay in the rotation.

I discussed Cashner a bit above. He started the season in the pen but moved into the rotation two weeks ago. He's been a walking injury ever since he hit the bigs with the Cubs. IIRC he did not have surgery after his 2011 injury, and the Padres took it easy with him in 2012 by having him pitch in relief. He was sent to the minors to stretch out half way through the year, and promptly suffered a lat strain. His MPH was way down when he returned, and he was shut down two starts later with a strained tendon "behind his armpit". I guess that's a shoulder? To make matters worse, he badly cut his hand in a hunting accident in the offseason. Suffice to say, the Cubs may have been right and starting pitching is not in his future.

Thursday: Eric Stults, LHP (5.67, 112, 3.93, 4.30) vs Travis Wood, LHP (2.25, 100, 4.27, 4.29), 1:20 PM CT

Stults shut down the Mets in his first start, but hasn't fared so well in his other starts. To his advantage, he's only walked four batters this year – it looks like he's mostly just getting burned by sequencing. He throws mostly fastballs which set up his changeup, which is his out pitch.

Wood continued his streak of solid starts by limiting the Marlins to two runs in six innings, striking out five and walking one. He's still due for some regression (.195 BABIP), but in general he's been a bright spot in the rotation. Since coming to the Cubs, he's relied on his cutter much more than in the past, which seems to be a trend around here even with Dempster gone.

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The Cubs get a double-breather in this matchup with the Marlins. Not only do they get to face one of the rosters in the majors that's in even worse shape than theirs, but they escape the frigid midwest and head to balmy Miami. The Cubs dropped two of three to the vastly superior Reds, but could easily have won all three of them with an extra bounce or two their way. After a snow-out and sub-freezing doubleheader up in Minneapolis, the Marlins are happy to be back home themselves, even though team/Loria protestors likely outnumber the fans right now. They have not won a single series all year, unlike the Cubs who have an intimidating one series win.

Team Overviews

2013 numbers and NL rank given. Extremely small sample sizes apply, of course.

This should be a hilarious series of offensive futility. As a bonus, I think the new Marlins park is a pitchers' park. I will be disappointed if there are fewer than 50 innings played in this four game set (laughing).

Injury Updates

Giancarlo Stanton (aka, the Miami Marlins) has been banged up to start the year. He has yet to hit a HR and has a line of .200/.333/.255. His power outage has been attributed to some shoulder soreness that's been bothering him for the last two weeks. Logan Morrison is on the 60 day DL recovering from offseason knee surgery, but looks like he might actually be ready before that time is up. 

Matt Garza has been shut down again, this time with a dead arm. It's probably nothing, but we've been down this road too many times before. Ian Stewart is still spinning his wheels in rehab at Iowa. Kyuji Fujikawa has done some long tossing but hasn't thrown any bullpen sessions as yet.

Random News and Storylines

Over at fangraphs, Jeff Sullivan wrote up a nice piece on Soriano's awful-looking strikeout against Broxton yesterday. 

Drew Sheppard (@DShep25) put together an awesome montage gif of all 5 of Yu Darvish's pitches. It's kind of mesmerizing.

The Marlins need to go hire Mike Quade for their coaching staff. Former Matt Cain tradebait Ricky Nolasco was annoyed to find that he was starting the freezing night game instead of the day game during Tuesday's doubleheader, and wasn't given the option to pick as is apparently baseball tradition. If Cuey were around, he would have known when he was starting even before the previous game was snowed out.

Pitching Matchups

2013 ERA, FIP-, xFIP, and ZiPS FIP listed for each pitcher

Thursday: Edwin Jackson, RHP (4.84, 79, 3.34, 3.61) vs Kevin Slowey, RHP (1.90, 99, 4.32, 4.20), 6:10 PM CT (on WCIU for you Chicago folks)

Jackson has been wild this year, walking around 40% more batters than he had in the last two seasons. His strikeout rate is up a bit, which helps compensate, but he's kind of been all over the place this year. Thanks to the Cubs defense, about 30% of the runs he's given up were unearned. 

I couldn't pick Kevin Slowey out of a lineup of Twins starters over the past decade. It seems like they always have a ton of unremarkably solid 1-2 WAR type starters in their rotation every year. He's gotten off to a great start so far for the fish, managing to avoid getting blown up in each start. Despite throwing a lot of sinkers, he's a fly-ball machine. He heavily pitches to contact, so I expect him to get double digit strikeouts against this lineup (laughing).

Friday: Scott Feldman, RHP (4.50, 155, 5.43, 4.03) vs Wade LeBlanc, LHP (6.27, 105, 4.57, 4.03), 6:10 PM CT

I was defending Feldman in the comments earlier today, saying that he's pitched sort of decently but has been torpedoed by unearned runs. Turns out that's not so much the case – he's been both crappy AND unlucky. He's made a throwing error in each of his starts, presumably in honor of his likely replacement Matt Garza. 

LeBlanc has been hit hard this season as well, but at least his peripherals say that it's mostly babip variance. LeBlanc is mostly a fastball-changeup pitcher, and his best pitch is definitely that change. He was crushed by the Nationals ten days ago, and only lasted four innings against the Reds in his last start, giving up two runs.

Saturday: Travis Wood, LHP (2.08, 88, 4.43, 4.28) vs Alex Sanabia, RHP (5.09, 158, 5.77, 5.31), 6:10 PM CT

Wood was yet again solid in his last start, pitching into the seventh and giving up only two runs (IIRC, at least one of which was aided by the failpen). His K and BB numbers have stabilized to close to his recent career averages, but I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that his 3.4% HR/FB is not going to last. 

Sanabia looks like he was an up and comer around 2010 or so, posting solid minor league numbers up the ladder and having a solid twelve start debut, finishing the 2010 season with a 3.65 FIP. He then found his way back into the minors and began to struggle a bit in AAA. I'm not really sure why ZiPS dislikes him so much – Steamer has him nearly a run better in FIP. He throws mostly sinkers and changeups.

Sunday: Carlos Villanueva, RHP (1.53, 105, 3.28, 4.09) vs Ricky Nolasco, RHP (3.81, 100, 4.16, 3.80), 12:10 PM CT

I am shocked, SHOCKED, that ESPN didn't pick this one up for their Sunday night game.

Villanueva continues to go deep into games for the Cubs, pitching into the 9th against the Reds before being pulled to watch the Marmol blow the lead to a Joey Votto single (no real blame on Marmol here, since Votto is actually pretty good). The Cubs pitching staff did a great job with Votto, holding him to two hits and one walk over the whole series, as well as gunning him down on the basepaths.

Nolasco pitched five annoyed innings in Minnesota on Tuesday, giving up two runs and striking out four. His numbers are almost right in line with his projection. He throws a lot of pitches, but his best two are the splitter and slider.

The post Series Preview: Cubs (6-14) at Marlins (5-16) appeared first on Obstructed View.

The Reds are still the team to beat in the NL Central. They had a rough first road trip, losing two of three in St. Louis and getting swept in Pittsburgh, but bounced back with a sweep of the Phillies and winning three of four against the Marlins. The Cubs, meanwhile, already seem to be falling apart in April. It only seems like a matter of time before Sveum gets gif-ed up in a straitjacket like Cuey. The Cubs offense is lousy (second worst in the NL), but what drives me crazier has been the defense. Castro's made a few errors, but I don't really care that much on that front. That's what happens when you have the most fielding chances on the team. The pitching staff has been chipping in to replace Matt Garza's defense by throwing the ball all over the diamond. I think Scott Feldman has had a throwing error in every game he's pitched, and let's not forget Shawn Camp balking in a game-tying run, or the Cubs tying a record for five wild pitches in a single inning. This is little league shit. It's still April so I'm fine to chalking it up to (partly) shitty luck. The team is bad, but I don't think it's *this* bad. 

Team Overviews

I'm switching from the 2012 numbers to 2013. Small sample sizes apply, of course. NL ranking in parens.

I'm kind of surprised to see that the Reds pen has fared so poorly, when it was arguably the best unit of their team last season. However, Sean Marshall and Sam LeCure have been hurt, so that's probably a big reason why their numbers are down. I expect that ranking to get much much better as we get more samples.

Injuries

Reds SS Zack Cozart bruised his fingers on a bunt attempt over the weekend, but none of them were broken. Him being back in the lineup is probably a good thing for the Cubs, considering Dusty's proclivities in batting the career .285 OBP player in the second spot. Catcher Ryan Hanigan hit the DL with a strained oblique suffered while stretching to catch an errant Aroldis Chapman pitch. Sean Marshall is on the DL with shoulder inflammation and is elgible to come back tomorrow. However, it looks like it will be a while longer until he gets back. He's thrown a bullpen session or two but still needs a rehab assignment. The Reds are also missing ace Johnny Cueto, who hit the DL a week or so ago with a lat strain. OF Ryan Ludwick has a torn labrum and is out until after the ASB.

Matt Garza is still working his way back from a lat strain, and this is more or less his spring training now. He was supposed to pitch for Kane County the other day, but the game was rained out. He threw a simulated game on Friday in Milwaukee and threw a bullpen yesterday. He'll probably be shipped off to AA soon to throw some longer outings. Fujikawa is elgible to come back in a week, but he'll probably get some minor league time in. The Cubs will see how well his elbow has recovered from the rest, and cross their fingers that his forearm injury isn't a TJS indicator. Ian Stewart is rehabbing in AAA and has looked awful. He's making Brett Jackson's strikeout rate seem fantastic with his numbers so far. The Cubs aren't in any rush to get him back to the bigs.

Random News and Storylines

Buster Olney hears buzz around the industry that the Cubs would be leading suitors to get David Price from the Rays at some point (and would presumably extend him, because WTF otherwise). I'm not so sure I see that happening, though Price's age would make him rather appealing. The cost would probably be too high though. I don't think that Thoyer particularly care if they drop in the farm system rankings by trading for a guy like Price if it improves the org as a whole. The Cubs should have some money to spend, and the way things are going it's not like they're likely to get a guy like Price on the FA market anymore.

Joey Votto has been doing Joey Votto things this year. Three weeks into the season, he already has more than 2/3 the walks (25) that Starlin Castro stat-gathered in all of 2012 (36). He's also homered three times, stolen a base, and plays excellent D at first. He should be an easy pick for NL MVP.

I'm glad that the Cubs aren't facing Bronson Arroyo this season. He stinks, but always seems to shut down the Cubs anyway. 

Pitching Matchups

Huge sample size issues apply, but I will list the pitchers' 2013 ERA, FIP-, xFIP, and ZiPS projected FIP.

Monday: Travis Wood, LHP (1.83, 74, 4.56, 4.27) vs Mike Leake, RHP (4.26, 110, 4.32, 4.46), 6:10 PM CT

Wood's had a solid couple of starts, and has managed to pretty much pitched his way into guaranteeing himself a rotation spot when Garza returns. However, the lack of HR allowed has been a big factor in his great start. He's striking out even less than his usual mediocre numbers, and has thrown a lot fewer strikes. Regresionnnnnnnn…Regression.

Leake continues to be his consistendly average self. He posted FIPs of 4.22 and 4.42 in the last two seasons, and sits at 4.3 for 2013. He was knocked around and had a 1:1 K:BB ratio in his first two starts, but managed to shut down the Phillies for seven innings in his last start, fanning seven and walking no one. Leake throws a ton of different pitches, but his primary pitch is his two-seam fastball and his slider is his out pitch. 

Tuesday: Carlos Villanueva, RHP (1.29, 106, 3.38, 4.05) vs Tony Cingrani, LHP (1.80, 108, 2.47, 4.40), 6:10 PM CT

The 'Stache has had an incredible run to start the year. His strikeout rate is right in line with where it has been as a starter, but his walk rate is what has really shined so far. Villanueva currently has a 15:4 strikeout to walk ratio. Obviously, his walk rate should shoot back up to the threes going forward, but it's still nice to see him get off to a great start. He look like he might be this year's Paul Maholm.

We don't know much about Cingrani. He posted huge strikeout rates in the minors, but it's kind of puzzling to me. His only plus pitch is his fastball, and he only throws in the low 90s. Per pfx, in his ten career innings in the bigs he's thrown 186 fastballs to 36 non-fastballs. I expect Soriano to have a huge game. 

Wednesday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.38, 68, 2.71, 3.41) vs Mat Latos, RHP (2.73, 71, 2.66, 3.47), 11:35 PM CT

This is obviously the big matchup of the series. Shark gave up a three-run homer to Braun in his last outing – not much shame in getting beat by one of the top five hitters in the league. Aside from that rough second inning (which included, sigh, another fielding error), he was fairly sharp.

Latos got off to a lousy start last year after the Reds picked him up in a trade with the Padres, btu righted the ship in the second half of the year to finish with a 3.48 ERA (3.85 FIP). He's had no such problem this year, striking out over a quarter of batters he's faced and walking only four. He's given up a home run or three, but allowed few enough baserunners not to have it be a problem. He has a 94 mph fastball, and a devastating slider that has a whiff rate of over 50% in his career. So unlike the previous day, probably not a great day for Soriano at the plate.

The post Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (5-12) at Cincinnati Reds (11-8) appeared first on Obstructed View.

Team Overviews

Here are how the teams stacked up in 2012. Respective league ranks in parentheses.

The Rangers are a great team. They lost a few key players from last year's team, most notably Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli, and Ryan Dempster. Less notably, Scott Feldman. They also traded long-time player Michael Young, who kept getting squeezed from seemingly every position on the infield by better players since signing his megadeal with Texas.

Injury Updates

Darwin Barney is back with the squad today. Juding from his 5-10 performance (with a ton of walks) on his minor league rehab, it seems like his knee isn't bothering him now. The pitching staff breathes a sigh of relief. Ian Stewart, on the other hand, has gone 0-fer and struck out roughly 232 times in his AAA stint. He says he'll be ready to return in a week or so, which is ahead of schedule. Matt Garza has been throwing bullpen sessions, and hopefully he'll start a rehab assignment soon and face live hitters. No announcement as to when that will happen.

The Rangers are pushing back Yu Darvish's scheduled start to the next series due to some minor blister problems, as well as not wanting him to bat in the cold weather at Wrigley Field. The only other injury of note is SP Matt Harrison, who is out with some back problems. The Rangers have a ton of pitchers on the shelf with TJS, including Joakim Soria, who could be back in a few weeks.

Random News

In today's mailbag column, T.R. Sullivan of mlb.com had this to say about Jurickson Profar, who is the top prospect in the minors but is blocked by Kinsler, Andrus, and Beltre:

With the Rangers anxious to lock Elvis Andrus up to a longer-term deal, do you think the Rangers are waiting on the Rays or Marlins to put up David Price or Giancarlo Stanton on the trade block, so they can send a package of players led by Jurickson Profar?
– Joel S., Murphy, Texas

If the Rangers can get either one of those two players for a package led by Profar, they will do it in the blink of an eye. Price can't be a free agent until after the 2015 season and Stanton until after '16, so neither player will be a rental.

As far as I can tell Price actually only has one year left with the Rays, but even if it were two I would guess that the Rays execs to be sprinting to the phone if they offered Profar. Someone out of that group of four Rangers is certainly going to be traded this season.

Fun with small sample sizes

MO favorite Lance Berkman has been hitting the cover off the ball, posting a .222 ISO and also walking in 18.2% of his PAs. I thought the Berkman signing was a steal by the Rangers. None of the Rangers pitchers have been hit particularly hard so far this season, and I don't see that changing for the next three days.

Pitching matchups

Tuesday: Derek Holland, LHP (4.67, 107, 4.14, 4.42) vs Travis Wood, LHP (4.27, 120, 4.32, 4.30), 7:05 PM CT

Holland looked like an up-and-comer when he first broke into the majors with the Rangers. He had solid numbers in 2010 and 2011, but was hammered for a ton of home runs last year (1.64 HR/9). Obviously that luck should even out, but I'm not sure why ZiPS seems to dislike him so much. The other systems on fangraphs have him closer to a 4.0 FIP, which is similar to how he performed in those first two seasons. From what I remember, he was a name that was being kicked around in trade rumors last year, but I can't remember if that was just wishcasting by Cubs fans.

Travis Wood looked pretty good again in his second start. He gave up three runs in the second inning, but in all fairness he needed five outs to get out of the inning thanks to shoddy infield defense.

Wednesday: Justin Grimm, RHP (SSS, 5.44) vs Carlos Villanueva, RHP (4.16, 113, 4.09, 4.02), 7:05 PM CT

Grimm was rated the Rangers #5 prospect going into last season, which says something considering how good that system is. However, most of the projection systems agree that he's probably not developed enough to pitch in the show yet. He's filling in for the injured Matt Harrison. He had a shaky first start against the Mariners, giving up two runs, striking out two, and walking three in four innings. 

Villanueva continues to look great, and the Superfriends must be pleased with how his draft stock could be improving. It's just two starts, though, and there's plenty of time for those numbers regress. Villanueva took a shutout into the eighth inning in his last start only to watch erstwhile closer Kyuji Fujikawa blow it in the ninth, just before being placed on the DL. 

Thursday: Alexi Ogando, RHP (3.27, 84, 3.58, 3.69) vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.81, 89, 3.38, 3.36), 1:20 PM CT

Ogando was nails coming out of the bullpen last year, and has seemingly been in the discussion for joining the rotation since joining the club. I was surprised to find that he had only started a single game in the bigs going into this year. He's looked great in his three starts so far, but hasn't gone particularly deep into the games. Not too surprising for a guy transitioning from the pen. 

Shark got the job done in his last start, striking out five and giving up two runs in six innings. The Cubs brought the score to 3-2 in the 6th and mustered a teaser rally in the 8th against the suddenly hittable Jeremy Affeldt, but couldn't seal the deal with the bases loaded and one out. 

The post Series Preview: Texas Rangers (8-5) at Chicago Cubs (4-8) appeared first on Obstructed View.

The Cubs will get a whiff of success this weekend, and it will probably be coming from the other dugout. (Blatantly plagarized from Brett's preview blurb at Bleacher Nation, because it's too funny. Take that, Paul Sullivan. Or something.) The Cubs are on a roll, not having lost for two straight days. The Giants, meanwhile, have crushed all before them and are coming off a sweep of the Rockies. I've been more down on the Giants this year than most, but they're a team that I always seem to underrate.

Team Overviews

2012 NL rank listed for each stat

Injury news

The Giants have no significant injuries to speak of. Pablo Sandoval had some nerve irritation in his elbow in March that the Giants are being careful with, but that's about it.

Darwin Barney starts a rehab assignment with Kane County tomorrow.

Fun with small sample sizes

Welington Castillo has been the Cubs hottest hitter so far this year. He has a .381/.409/.619 slash line, good for a .440 wOBA. Castillo has looked pretty good at the plate in general, making solid contact. I like his throwing arm behind the plate, though his throws have not been as accurate as in the first few games. It seems like a lot of runners have been stealing off the pitchers. Nate Schierholtz is right behind Castillo, with .304/.385/.565 and .406. I'm finding myself liking the RF platoon a lot more than I thought I would in the offseason. One nice thing about Schierholtz is that he's not a big enough name that a manager is likely to keep him out there vs lefties since he's had a hot start to the year. There's still time yet.

Jeff Samardzija has a K% of 40.7%.

Brent Lillibridge is 0 for 17 with no walks. Marlon Byrd must be his role model.

Tim Lincecum has walked 11 batters in 11 innings.

Pitching matchups

I list each pitcher's 2012 ERA, FIP-, xFIP, and their 2013 ZiPS projection

Thursday: Ryan Vogelsong, RHP (3.37, 99, 4.15, 3.87) vs Scott Feldman, RHP (5.09, 86, 3.87, 4.08), 1:20 PM CT

Vogelsong was so bad that the Wandy Rodriguez HOF might as well be renamed in his honor. I'm still kind of baffled by how good he's been since joining the Giants (see also: Samardzija, Jeff). He's not a guy who strikes too many batters out, and his big problem in his Pirates career was walks. It dropped by one and a half walkers per nine in his second career, and has showed no signs of inching up. He was hit hard by the Cardinals in his first start, giving up five runs in five innings and change. The Cards big inning doesn't necessarily reflect badly on him though – it was an infield single, a walk, and a couple more singles and suddenly it was three runs. He has a decent fastball, but his best pitch is his curveball.

Feldman (and everyone else) was pushed back a day due to the rainout. I'm lazy, so I'll just repeat what I wrote in my last preview.

Feldman was awful in his first start. He gave up four runs in four innings and change, and was lucky that he didn't give up even more. His control was all over the place. I'm really hoping that he's the one who gets squeezed out of the rotation when Garza gets back. Villaneuva seems like the obvious choice for that though, and I wouldn't put Travis Wood out of the question either since the Cubs are likely planning to try and trade Feldman and Villanueva.

Friday: Matt Cain, RHP (2.79, 61, 3.82, 3.30) vs Carlos Villanueva, RHP (4.16, 114, 4.09, 4.22), 1:20 PM CT

I guess Cain has earned the right not to be referred to as Ricky Nolasco around here. Cain's best pitch is all of them, but especially his slider, which he throws equally likely on any count. Cain shut out the Dodgers for six innings on opening day, but was absolutely shelled by the Cardinals in his following start. He gave up nine runs in 3.2 innings and struck out only two.

I thought Villaneueva looked pretty good in his last start, and that's no even considering his excellent mustache. He worked into the seventh, striking out six and allowing only a solo HR to Justin Upton. Carlos Marmol apparently decided to one-up him by allowing homers to both Uptons in the ninth.

Saturday: Madison Bumgarner, LHP (3.37, 94, 3.45, 3.24) vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.81, 89, 3.38, 3.39), 12:05 PM CT

Bumgarner went eight innings in his first start shutting out the Dodgers on two hits, striking out six, and walking no one. He struggled in his next start against the Rockies, walking five in 5.2 innings but only yielding two runs. He'll get to face the vaunted Cubs RHH lineup that looked so awful against the likes of Wandy and Mike Minor.

Shark was electric for the first four innings of Sunday's game, striking out ten batters. Things started getting wild for him when he had to pitch out of the stretch later in the game though. He walked two batters and threw two wild pitches in the fifth, then had a walk and a HBP on his way out in the sixth. But those first four innings, wow. Kerry Wood was on everyone's mind. He had everything going to start that game.

Sunday: The Collapsing Remains of Tim Lincecum's Career, RHP (5.18, 98, 3.82, 3.70), vs Edwin Jackson, RHP (4.03, 99, 3.79, 3.68), 1:20 PM CT

Lincecum fell off a cliff after signing his giant extension at the beginning of 2012. His strikeout rate was much steadier than I thought, but he started walking a lot more batters, and coughed up some more gopherballs. Some of that could be bad luck, but the concerning thing is that he lost 2 mph off his fastball last year, and it looks like it had a detrimental effect on the rest of his pitches too. His changeup velocity did not drop, for example. Still, I don't know how much of a difference a 7mph vs a 9mph gap between those pitches would make. He's walked 11 batters already this year.

Jackson got rocked early in his last start, but the coaching staff noticed something was up with his grip and he pitched fine after that. He's still hoping to put together his first solid start in a Cubs uniform. Also that the Chicago Police weren't so zealous about parking violations.

Lineups for today's game

Giants

1. CF Angel Pagan
2. SS Brandon Crawford
3. 3B Pablo Sandoval
4. C Buster Posey
5. RF Hunter Pence
6. 1B Brandon Belt
7. LF Gregor Blanco
8. 2B Nick Noonan
9. P Vogelsong

Cubs

1. CF David DeJesus
2. SS Starlin Castro
3. 1B Anthony Rizzo
4. LF Alfonso Soriano
5. RF Nate Schierholtz
6. C Welington Castillo
7. 3B Luis Valbuena
8. 2B Hide your kids
9. P Feldman

The post Series Preview (and game thread): Giants (6-3) at Cubs (3-5) appeared first on Obstructed View.