Anthony Rizzo has signed a long term extension with the Cubs. Ken Rosenthal has the details. The deal is for at least seven years (including 2013) and $41 million, which includes what would have been Rizzo's first free agent season in 2019. In addition, it contains two club options which would bring the total contract to 9 years and $68 million, with escalators that could potentially increase that total to $73 million.

My off the cuff reaction to the deal is that the Cubs received the bulk of the upside here. It's certainly possible that Rizzo doesn't pan out the way the Cubs hope (think early Carlos Pena), but at approximately $6 mill per season, it won't be a lead weight on the franchise. In a medium case (think Adam LaRoche), it's a fair deal, and shouldn't be difficult to move. If Rizzo continues to improve, however, (think Derrek Lee) this could be an absolute steal. In 2020, I would venture to guess that a 2 yr/ 29 million dollar deal will look reasonable for a 30 year-old first baseman near the prime of his career. 

I wanted to include GW's reaction because I pretty much felt the same way. I was heading to bed when I read about the contract, but based on the early details, I thought of two players: Prince Fielder and Carlos Pena. I figured that represented the upside that Rizzo possesses, as well as the downside.

There's always a chance that he just breaks down and doesn't even come close to Pena, but let's be reasonable here. While that chance exists for all players, we still have a pretty good idea at this point of what to expect from Rizzo. That range of expected performance, in my opinion, could be anywhere between Pena and Fielder. That was my initial thought.

I figured I'd take a closer look in the morning. The place to start would be the projections.

Fangraphs has two rest of season projections: Steamer and ZiPS. Over a full season, those are a little above 3 WAR so I rounded down to 3 as the starting point. Since the contract covers 2013, that's where we start.

After finishing this little exercise, I thought "holy shit, that's gotta be almost identical to Prince Fielder." It is. If you look at Fielder's fWAR beginning in his 2nd season, which is about where we're at with Rizzo, he'll be up to 28 fWAR by the end of the season.

The last column there is what we'd estimate his salaries to be each year if he did not sign the extension. 2019 would have been his first year of free agency so I used $20 million. It's difficult to figure out what the cost per win will be by then, but it's very easy to see how that 4 WAR then could end up being worth over $30 million.

We'd expect him to be paid roughly $64 million if he went year to year and performed up to his rest of season ZiPS and Steamer projections. Instead, they'll pay him $41 million.

This is the higher end of what we could reasonably expect. We're talking about Prince Fielder and although that's what his projections (and a typical aging curve) might suggest, it's Prince fucking Fielder. So let's go a little lower. Let's use PECOTA, which has been the least optimistic about Rizzo's future.

We'll call this the Ryan Howard plan. You still have to love the contract. Now let's look at the Carlos Pena plan.

If we look back on this contract and get only 11.5 WAR, I think we'd still be happy with it. It's probably an overpay, but we've already established this as the low end of what we could expect.

Back to Prince Fielder since the projections essentially tell us that's who Rizzo is. Fielder was paid about $58 million through his first season of free agency (2012). Considering inflation, you'd expect Rizzo to be paid more than that, but he won't be. So even if we end up getting Ryan Howard, the Cubs still come out of this better than the Brewers (and Tigers) did with Fielder.

I'm thrilled with this contract. You'd literally have to be looking at the worst case scenario for this not to be a good deal to the Cubs. Forget about the option years, which is only makes the contract better. This is just fantastic.

I wish the Cubs could have come out of the Starlin Castro negotiations the same way. I felt he was overpaid and still do. I don't believe Castro would have earned $60 million going through arbitration. It would have been close, but the Cubs are taking on the risk and not getting much of a benefit.

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My off the cuff reaction to the deal is that the Cubs received the bulk of the upside here. It's certainly possible that Rizzo doesn't pan out the way the Cubs hope (think early Carlos Pena), but at approximately $6 mill per season, it won't be a lead weight on the franchise. In a medium case (think Adam LaRoche), it's a fair deal, and shouldn't be difficult to move. If Rizzo continues to improve, however, (think Derrek Lee) this could be an absolute steal. In 2020, I would venture to guess that a 2 yr/ 29 million dollar deal will look reasonable for a 30 year-old first baseman near the prime of his career. 

On track to be a super two player, Rizzo would have had four years of arbitration (2015-2018). I don't think it's a stretch that in the medium case or better scenario he would have earned nearly all of the $41 million that's guaranteed in this deal in those four arbitration years plus one year of free agency, in which case the option years are gravy for the organization. Stay tuned to OV for more analysis on the deal.

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The Cubs are expected to call up outfielder Ryan Sweeney from Triple-A Iowa and option Dave Sappelt to the Minor Leagues on Monday.

This is an interesting move. On one hand, Sweeney is almost certainly the better baseball player at this point. Sappelt just hasn't really made an impact at the major league level, for one reason or another. Additionally, this allows Sappelt to play every day, which might actually help him in the long run (I care less about Sweeney playing every day; his development is just about over). The interesting wrinkle, though, is that Sweeney and DeJesus are both left-handed (Sappelt is a rightie). Sveum has aggressively platoon players this season and it's worked well for DeJesus hiding from lefties. That's no longer on option (though Sappelt was floundering against lefties worse than DeJesus likely would've).

The upshot is that DeJesus will probably see a significantly higher number of left-handers than he was before, and slightly less righthanders. Sweeney is more of an "every 4th or 5th start, first PH off the bench" type. In that role, he could have some real value. He could also draw the occasional relief start in the corners. 

Sappelt had options, so we don't lose him. He's 26, so he's not young anymore, but I think he's still got the talent level of a solid 4th OF. Sweeney already is one.

It's worth thinking about who on the 40-man roster is expendable (and the 25-man, too). I can easily eliminate 3 pitchers (Camp, Loe, Rusin) and not lose anything (I'm not sure any of the three would even be claimed), and you can throw in Rondon if you like. The only other 2 guys I could easily lose are Ian Stewart and Julio Borbon. Stewart is broken, and Borbon is replacement-level incarnate, maybe a hair above. At least three of those sports will need to be filled when Vizcaino, Baker, and Clevenger return.

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Category #1: Overpriced, but Productive

This is where Carlos Marmol and Alfonso Soriano fall. Marmol makes $9.8 million, which is pretty ridiculous and one of the remaining artifacts of the Hendry Era. I didn't hate the idea at the time, and I can't pretend to know what payroll limitations Hendry was under, but here we are nonetheless. Marmol is a great bet to be traded, and it's not unlikely to happen before the season starts either. The Cubs will likely eat a fair bit of it and get a lottery ticket arm in return. 

Alfonso Soriano is the other stamp on the Hendry Era that lives on. Soriano has, in fairness, been about as good as advertised during his tenure with the Cubs; his contract gave many fans an unfair expectation of his skillset. Before the Cubs, his OPS+ was 115, and on the Cubs it was 113. He's due for a steep decline in the near future, but the Cubs could get a mid-15 prospect in a team's system if they ate enough money (and all signs point to a willingness to take on lots of salary). 

Category #2: Expiring Contracts

Nate Schierholtz was the biggest offensive signing of the season, which tells you exactly how competitive the Cubs think they are this season. He was brought into platoon at RF with Scott Hairston (our other big "get"), but he doesn't actually have an advantage either way: he's definitionally mediocre against both hands. He does have a higher BABIP against LHP (.343 to .300) and a lower OPS against them also (.732 to .708), so theoretically you expect some erosion in his skills against lefties. However, he's just average against righties anyways, so his value is strictly just injury-replacement at the deadline. Market and injuries will 100% define his value in a trade, but I can see him being as valuable as a 4-7 org guy in the best circumstances.

Scott Feldman is another one-year "prove it" deal. He's not the greatest pitcher in the world, but serviceable back-end types moving to the NL can catch some magic now and again. In the best case, he's slightly less useful than Paul Maholm in a trade (he has no option year), but I'd imagine that he'll reach that level of value safely. He's going to get every chance to start this year, and his peripherals have improved even if his standard stats haven't. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Feldman signing turns out to be the best move Hoyer made this year. 

Scott Baker might not throw another pitch for the Cubs. If that's the case, the Cubs effectively burned 5.5 million. However, it's far from certain that Scott #2 is cooked. He was quietly phenomenal in 2011 (of course, that's a TJS and 2 years ago), and his peripherals indicate tons of talent (lots of Ks, not many walks), and I'm cautiously optimistic about what that means if he can get on the mound. It's very difficult to imagine what his trade value might be, so I'm not going to speculate on it.

Everything I said about Baker I can just repeat for Garza. At this point, I think the Cubs are probably better served trying to extend Matt, because it's hard to envision getting anything approaching "fair value" for him.

Shawn Camp was the MVP of the Cubs last year, according to Dale Sveum. He parlayed that honor into a huge 1.35 million contract this year. For comparison, the Cubs paid Dioner Navarro 1.75 million this year. Camp could net a live arm in a trade with a repeat performance of 2012. Anything more than that is a bonus.

Category #3: Talented and Cost-Controlled

David DeJesus is a reasonably-priced, reasonably-good CF/RF. He's due to make 4.25 million this year, and 6.5 next year. That's a pretty valuable trade chip. Not only is he likely to be among the better deadline options out there, he's actually an upgrade for plenty of teams that might not even have an injury. DeJesus could garner a decent prospect if the right situation presents itself, and the Cubs will almost certaintly extract some value from his trade. 

Kyuji Fujikawa is a huge question mark, but the elder Japanese closer signed for 4 and 5.5, which means he could be very attractive in a trade at the deadline. Japanese pitchers have a tendency to overperform in the first year, which could also be to the Cubs' benefit. I'm not sold on Fujikawa being traded at all (for reasons even I don't know), but it's feasible to envision a scenario in which it does happen.

Sure, you can throw Carlos Villanueva in here. He's making 5 and 5, which is reasonable. I don't think he's going to be anything special for the Cubs, but hey, if you need a warm body to soak up innings…

Scott Hairston is a lefty-killer. Pieces like this get traded for unexpected returns every so often, so don't sleep on him. For that to work, though, he's got to OBP over .299. Come on, Hairston. I know you can do it.

Category #4: "Foundational" Pieces

I'm not sold on Darwin Barney being anything more than an excellent backup MIF in the future (I imagine many front offices share my view). There just isn't enough value to a glove that's attached to a bat that will optimistically flirt with the .300 wOBA line. The Cubs likely value defense pretty highly, and another team might share that view. Depending on the scenario (perhaps a high BABIP plus a modest progression in power), the Cubs might be able to flip Barney for some real prospects (and his great contact skills ensure that he'll make good use of a BABIP swing in his favor). The Cubs have flirted with the idea that Barney is a definitive part of the future. All it takes is one sucker at the table to change that, though.

Jeff Samardzija is about as difficult a pitcher to project as you're going to find in baseball this year. He's got the tools to be a legitimate #2 (he throws gas, has a great fastball, and a plus splitter). He's also got a tendency to leave balls high in the zone, where they get CRUSHED. Samardzija isn't a great extension candidate, but another team might not see it that way. He's cost-controlled for the next few years with a skillset scouts can dream on. In a trade, Shark could net a huge prospect. If James Shields is worth Wil Myers plus, Jeff Samardzija is worth more or less the same amount – but only if he continues at his 2012 pace. I think there is a real shot that Shark gets traded for a HUGE package this year if extension talks prove less than fruitful, and the Cubs will definitely be looking for impact arms in return.

Everyone else on the Cubs roster is either a "foundational cornerstone" that will require an unlikely offer to move (Castro or Rizzo), pieces that just don't make sense to trade (Castillo, Russell) or are just flotsam/jetsam that won't get much in return (Navarro, Clevenger, Valbuena, Stewart).

The post Who Might Be Traded This Year? appeared first on Obstructed View.

2013 will be Hairston's 33 year old season. His career has consisted of mostly part-time work, first with Diamondbacks, followed by the Padres, then the A's, and most recently the Mets. He came up in 2004 as a second basemen, but has since spent most of his time in a corner outfield role.

There could be some upside to this deal. Hairston can hit lefties (119 career OPS+), has some power (95 career homers in 2200 PA), and doesn't seem to be terrible on defense. He has spent most of his career in pitchers' parks and could conceivably get a boost by moving to Wrigley. Also, he is the brother of former Cub Jerry Hairston Jr. Due to the fickle randomness inherent in birthing orders, Scott has not the honor of carrying on his father's name, and has spent his life seeking to find favor with the patriarch through the development of a swing capable of producing power unmatched by his older sibling. (I assume).

On the other hand, Hairston's career high in plate appearances is 464. His career OBP is .302. His desirability as a free agent is largely based on his surprising 2012, when hit 20 homers in 398 PA, and breakout years from old players are not to be trusted.

On the whole the signing falls under the category of "Is This It?", as has been typical of moves during the Epstein/Hoyer regime. The club has collected mediocre players on short term deals for low prices while they try to figure out what to do in the long term. I don't think it's an accident that this move comes on the heels of Buster Olney reporting that the Diamondbacks are weighing an offer to send Justin Upton to the Braves. The front office isn't willing to match that asking price at this stage of the game, so we will have to deal with platoon types like David DeJesus, Nate Schierholtz, and Hairston for the time being. If you squint hard, you can see a 2013 roster that could finish .500 if all the breaks fall their way, but will probably be closer to 70 wins than 80.

Hey, at least he is better than Dave Sappelt.

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The Jeff Samardzija contract is worth $2.64 million and they signed James Russell for $1.075 million. Totals for arbitraiton eligible players are below, along with their projected WAR.

CAIRO still projects Samardzija to have some innings in relief due to him being a reliever as recently as 2011 so you can adjust those numbers however you'd like.

My first thought about the James Russell contract was that it was a slight overpay, but that's a fairly good projection for him. I'll have to look more into that in the near future. Also surprised by the Luis Valbuena projected WAR. You can tell how little I've paid attention to the details so far.

In other news, the Cubs expect to complete the signing of Carlos Villanueva soon. Dale Sveum mentioned today, but Bruce Miles suggested otherwise.

MLBTR also notes that Jed Hoyer said that Darwin Barney is part of their long term plans. I figured as much since it's unlikely a team would be willing to give up what a light hitting, great fielding 2nd baseman is worth the Cubs.

Paul Sullivan is apparently surprised enough to tweet that Theo Epstein said the Cubs would essentially take the best player available when they pick 2nd in this year's draft. Sullivan doesn't own a thinking cap.

Rice Cube has a blog up about the Cubs Convention and the Cubs plans to renovate Wrigley Field. Brett has some pics up over on Bleacher Nation.

A couple of stars passed away over the last couple days. Earl Fucking Weaver died of a fucking heart attack at the fucking age of 82. Robert F. Chew passed away on Thursday. Chew played Proposition Joe on The Wire.

Joe will be missed. Very missed. We liked Joe. A hard man not to like.

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Cubs right-hander Matt Garza avoided arbitration and agreed to a new $10.25 million contract on Thursday.

Garza's representatives at CAA announced the new deal on Twitter: "#Cubs Matt Garza (@Gdeuceswild) agrees to a $10.25M contract to avoid salary arbitration." Garza himself revealed the contract on his Twitter account: "Business side over! Hooray! Time to focus on what really matters … 2013 #GoCubsGo"

The Cubs were expected to make a formal announcement on Friday.

Garza has always been a little overrated and $10.25 million is a bit much, but it's his final year of arbitration and he was going to get a raise.

I'm interested in what kind of value Garza has at this point in a trade. To keep things simple, let's start with CAIRO. It projects a 3.69 FIP over 150 innings, which is also 2.6 WAR. If the win value is, let's say, $6 million in 2013, that's $15.6 million in value. Garza's surplus trade value prior to the start of the season is $5.4 million.

We'll go ahead and write Garza in for 200 innings and bump the WAR to 3.5. That's $21 million in value and a surplus value of $10.8 million.

I think expecting 3.5 WAR from Garza is a bit of a stretch. Below are his WAR totals since 2008:

• WARP: 1.6, 2.2, 0.6, 3.7, -0.4
• fWAR: 2.9, 3.1, 1.6, 4.9, 1.2
• rWAR: 3.1, 3.3, 1.3, 2.5, 1.0

But the projections are the projections so we're using them.

Garza's value will decrease as the season goes on. If he's traded at the deadline, he'd only be expected to provide about 1.2 WAR the rest of the way while being paid $3.42 million over the final two months. That would give him a surprlus value of $3.8 million.

Comparing those values to this post on Beyond the Box Score, the Cubs probably won't get much in return for Garza at the deadline. I imagine it will be difficult to trade him before he shows he is completely healthy and I'm not sure spring training is going to get that done.

The post Cubs and Matt Garza avoid arbitration appeared first on Obstructed View.

Valbuena hit .219/.310/.340 in 303 plate appearances with Chicago this past season while playing second base and third base. The 27-year-old was first time arbitration eligible as a super two player this winter and had been projected to earn $900K by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz. As MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker shows, the Cubs have three remaining arbitration eligible players: Matt Garza, James Russell and  Jeff Samardzija.

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Hall of Fame

Nobody was elected to the Hall of Fame yesterday. It wasn’t that surprising based on Repoz’s collection of the ballots published online, but still frustrating.

The New York Times covered the front page of the sports with this instant classic.

It will only be more difficult to get into the Hall of Fame now that so many qualified players remain on the ballot.

McCovey Chronicles offers us their big, important opinions.

Long rant short: Keeping steroid users out is an exercise in ignoring context. It makes the Hall of Fame a museum without context. That’s like a movie without images, a smore without graham crackers, or a copy of Snow’s Greatest Hits without “Informer.” Or, for that matter, a DVD of Snow’s greatest hits without Game 2 of the 2000 NLDS. What’s the point? What is this whole thing for? Shouldn’t you just stop and call it something else?

The only way to argue otherwise is to see the Hall of Fame as nothing but some sort of reward for the players. If that’s the point of the Hall of Fame, maybe we need a separate museum that tells about baseball’s history instead. I’d rather go to that one.

 Charles P. Pierce gave us yesterday’s midday diversion.

Hurrah, sports fans, it’s National Self-Righteousness Day! Somehow, America’s baseball writers have managed to decide which of our retired ballplayers are moral enough deserve to be placed in honored glory in a museum next to wife-beaters, racists, drunkards, whoremongers, segregationists, and murderers.

Jonah Keri writes about the fallacy of the Hall of Fame. I’d quote something, but it’s too fantastic to skip over any of it. Go read it. Now.

Dumbest Question Ever?

I doubt it’s the dumbest question ever, but it certainly is a dumb one.

Yes.

This question, “How much do you blame Jay Cutler for RG III’s injury,” is so utterly useless it is causing me to physically lose brain cells by the second just contemplating how anyone could put those words together in that order and display it on national television.

I don’t really care about the Bears or professional football for that matter, but yes, that is a ridiculously dumb question. Probably not as dumb as this one: is there anyone, anyone at all, on the 2013 MLB Hall of Fame ballot that deserves to be in Cooperstown right now?

No, that question is even dumber than the Cutler one because the answer is far more obvious.

OV Forums

Bubbles started some Breaking Bad discussion for us. How will Walt die? Will Jesse die along with him? Will he find out about Walt’s involvement in the death of Jane and the poisoning of Brock? Who knows?

Would you like to talk about offensive sports mascots? The trillion dollar coin? Season 3 of Justified? The new season of Justified?

This is a Cubs blog

 Unfortunately, there is no Cubs news worthy of discussing that I’m aware of.

The post Daily Facepalm – 1.10.13 appeared first on Obstructed View.

Brief thoughts on the deal, in the context of the entire offseason:

• The Cubs seem determined to avoid a repeat appearance of the overwhelming stream of awful starters that were trotted out at the end of last season. The future just got a little dimmer for Chris Rusin, Jason Berken, Justin Germano, Aaron Miles and literally thousands of others of an approximately equal talent level at throwing a baseball.

• The Cubs seem to be keen on avoiding acquiring this desperately-needed pitching depth via trade. There are some reasonably interesting names out there: Rick Porcello has been floated in a number of deals, John Ely (who inexplicably tore up the PCL last year) was acquired by the Astros for very little… Minor league mavens will undoubtedly be pleased by this stance.

• Edwin Jackson didn't like the offers he received last offseason, turning down 3 years, $27 million from the Pirates in favor of a 1 year, $11 million dollar deal from the Nationals. This type of "I'll try my luck next year" gambit almost never seems to pay off, but, wow, did it ever for Jackson. For me, the take home message is that smart baseball analysts won't hesitate to put a considerable amount of stock in a single season's worth of pitching stats. Jackson put up a career year with the Nationals, and the league believed in his numbers.

• This may be just a personal hangup, but I'm having trouble getting past the statements made by Jed Hoyer after Scott Feldman signed (via Brett):

[Feldman] did sort of have one foot in, one foot out [of the rotation]. I think he felt like he was looking over his shoulder a lot. If he made a bad start, he might not necessarily make another one or might be in the bullpen. We certainly gave him the reassurance here: ‘You’re going to be a starting pitcher. You’re going to be in the rotation.’ [That] means a lot. It’s hard to perform when you’re always constantly worried about [your] job.

In my opinion, one does not simply tell Scott Feldman: "You're going to be in the rotation" unless Feldman has previously made it clear that Des Moines is, in fact, his favorite city in the world, and, yes, he wishes he had the chance to spend some more time there. This leads me to believe that some combination of the following things is true:

1. Jed has the conscience of used car salesmen.
2. The prices on Villanueva and Jackson/Anibal were lower than the Cubs expected them to be at the time of the Feldman signing.
3. Both of Scott Baker and Matt Garza are not doing so hot in the injury recovery department.
4. Other trades are coming. (Aisley speculated that Jeff Samardzija may be being shopped last night, and a shady supposed insider reported this to be the case, but no one in the mainstream media is saying this afaik.)
5. The Cubs' merry band of magical scouts really loves Scott Feldman.

I for one, will be really interested to hear whether the Cubs have given similar assurances to Villanueva.

Dmick has promised futher coverage later this evening, so don't touch that navigation toolbar!

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