Hector Rondon

Honestly, Rondon hasn't been as awful as his numbers would indicate. He's used very sparingly (13 games thus far), and in those 15.2 innings he's allowed 2 HR, 8 walks, 3 HBP, 11 SO, and a 4.60 ERA/5.39 FIP. That looks terrible on it's face, and perhaps it is; when I've seen him, he doesn't really look all that bad though. 

Sure, there was this, and it wasn't pretty. That game has really disproportionately affected his line, though, because he's not used that often. 

Rondon has featured a 92 mph fastball, a 81 mph slider, and a 90 mph cut fastball (65/22/13). Only James Russell (and Kyuji Fujikawa in SSS) has induced more swing-and-miss on the Cubs this year, so the stuff seems to be there (also 3rd in SwStr% behind Russell and Shark). His problem has been two-fold this year; he starts behind in counts too much (just over 47% of his first pitches are balls) and he overcompensates by working in the zone too much. Once we get a larger sampling, we can actually determine if there's anything there. We can be reasonably certain he's a lot better than Lendy Castillo.

Starling Peralta

He was returned to the Cubs after being taken by Arizona with the 14th pick in the draft. He's been horrible ever since he returned, so I'm assuming that either his increased 2012 velocity went away or he's injured. It was always a stretch to imagine he'd have ever stuck on their roster (never pitched above A ball). The Cubs are almost certainly going to convert him to a ROOGY reliever where he might have some success.

Michael Burgess

Burgess has struggled mightily as a AA repeat in the Houston organization. He's had 138 PA and the line reads .189/.254/.323; he also has reduced power and walks with a huge increase in strikeouts. I can't say I really miss him; he'll be 24 this year and doesn't look to be able to escape AA.

Matt Cerda

Matt Cerda might be my favorite Cub of all time. He was drafted in the AAA phase of the Rule V by the Cardinals, and instead of just joining their team, he retired. He hasn't yet reported to their organization either way, so I'm assuming he's hanging them up. If that's the case, and he retired rather than play for the Cardinals, then he'll never buy a beer if he drinks with me. Cerda looked poised to join a suddenly crowded glut at 3B in Iowa, but was crafted from a different mold than Vitters/Stewart/Lake. His calling card was always patience without much power. It would have been difficult for him to find playing time in Iowa (he also plays 2B but so does Watkins), so I'm happy for him that we would have seemingly had an opportunity, but it'd be so metal if he retired rather than be a Cub.

Alvido Jimenez

I honestly can't find any information about his stint with the Blue Jays. I assume he's still with their organization, but he's yet to pitch. Jimenez spent 3 seasons in rookie ball with the Cubs; if he's doing rookie ball again with the Jays he wouldn't have started anything besides extended spring training yet.

All told, the players we lost have either been returned, retired, or regressed. We grabbed a player that has looked better than his number would indicate. This Rule 5 draft hasn't been all that bad to the Cubs at all.

EDIT: Apparently the verbiage of the Rule 5 draft is, actually, Rule 5. I blame Baseball Reference for leading me astray, and thank "Your Dumb" for his insight.

The post Rule 5 Draft revisited appeared first on Obstructed View.

Chris Rusin threw 6.2 innings, allowed 5 hits and 4 runs. He walked 2 and struckout 3. He also hit a batter. Zack Putnam struckout the only batter he faced. Rafael Dolis gave up 2 hits and struck a batter out in an inning of work. Blake Parker pitched the 9th and allowed a walk and a hit. He struck a batter out.

The I-Cubs only had 6 hits and a walk in this one. Logan Watkins had one of the two extra base hits as he went 1-4 with a double. Ian Stewart also doubled and was 2-4. Donnie Murphy was 2-3.

Tennessee Smokies 7 @ Chattanooga Lookouts 5

Dallas Beeler had another strong outing. He went 6 innings, walked 2 and struckout 6. He gave up 4 hits and 3 runs. Trey McNutt struckout 2 in an inning of work.

All of the position players in the lineup had a hit. The top of the order did this:

• Matt Szczur 3-5, double
• Ronald Torreyes 2-5, double
• Arismendy Alcantara: 3-4, 2 doubles, home run

Jair Fernandez was 2-4 and Anthony Giansanti was 2-4 with a double and a triple.

Daytona Cubs 6 @ Lakeland Flying Tigers 5

Zach Cates walked 2 and only struckout 1 in 5.2 innings. He gave up 5 hits and 3 runs. David Cales threw 2.1 innings, allowed 3 hits and 2 runs. He walked a batter and struckout 4. Hunter Cervenka struckout 2 in an inning of work.

The Cubs acquired Cervenka, along with Michael Bowden, in the Marlon Byrd trade with the Red Sox. He’s appeared in 9 games this season and has thrown 17.2 innings. He’s allowed just 7 hits and 4 runs. He’s struckout 16, but he has walked 10. He’s had a tendency to walk a lot of batters so there doesn’t see to be much improvement there. He’ll either need to improve that or he may only have a career of a LOOGY ahead of him.

Zeke DeVoss and Dustin Geiger were 2-5. Geiger doubled. Javier Baez had another good day at the plate going 3-5 with a double. That’s two days in a row he’s had good results. More of it, please.

Jorge Soler continues to rake. He was 2-4 with a walk and a strikeout. Wes Darvill was 3-5.

Kane County Cougars 4 @ Cedar Rapids Kernels 0

Pierce Johnson had his best start of his career last night. He threw 6 innings and struckout 9 batters while walking only 1. He’s having a great year so far. Over 8 starts and 40.2 innings, he’s walked 12 and allowed only 1 home run. He’s struckout 45. Pierce turned 22 a week ago and it won’t be long before he’s in the Daytona rotation if he keeps this up.

Justin Amlung walked 2 and struckout 3 in 2 innings. Jeffry Antigua struckout 2 and and allowed a hit in 1 inning. The Cougars pitchers struckout 14 batters and walked only 3.

Dan Vogelbach and Rock Shoulders were both 2-4. Vogelbach had a double and a strikeout while Shoulders struckout twice and hit his 9th home run of the season. Jeimer Candelario doubled in 4 plate appearances. Oliver Zapata was 3-4 with a home run.

VSL Cubs 3 @ VSL Rays 2

The VSL Cubs had allowed a ton of runs so far. They’ve allowed 22, 8, 15, 15 and now 2 runs. It’s nice to see them play a game that I can be certain is actually baseball.

The post JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-18-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.

According to Baseball America, there are 3 players in the 2013 draft who have a tool that ranks at 80.

Evaluators rarely break out the top grade on the 20-80 scouting scale, but I believe there are three tools worthy of an 80 among the top prospects in the 2013 draft. Those three are Oklahoma righthander Jonathan Gray’s fastball, San Diego third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant’s power and Maryland high school outfielder Matt McPhearson’s speed.

Baseball America ranks Bryant as the 3rd best draft prospect. He's got ridiculous power.

Bryant’s (No. 3 on our Draft Top 100) power has been apparent for a while. It made him a borderline first-round pick coming out of a Nevada high school in 2010, though his signability scared teams off. We noted in our Preseason All-America coverage that he had the most usable pop in his draft class, but he has found a new level as a junior.

Bryant hit three homers over the weekend, boosting his total to 28, a school record and nine more than any other player in NCAA Division I. He has outhomered 228 of the 296 teams in Division I. His combination of bat speed, strength, pitch recognition, discipline and barrelability give him elite power.

He's now up to 29 home runs.

As far as the draft goes, there are probably 5 or 6 guys who stand out from the rest. Supposedly it's two this year in Gray and Mark Appel, but there can't be much of a difference between numbers 2 and 6 or 7. As long as you take one of those players, you've done well and there's no reason to complain.

I don't know nearly as much about these guys as the Cubs and others teams do. I'm not really qualified to say who, among that group, should go in which spot. When a team like the Cubs takes a Tyler Colvin or Hayden Simpson, well, that's just wrong. Neither player was ranked anywhere near the position in which they were taken. They couldn't have been an equal talent at the time of the draft.

I'm still hoping the Cubs draft Mark Appel. He may not have an 80 tool, but those are rare and I'm not sure it should stop a team from drafting him. He is probably the most polished player in the draft. Some have said he could pitch in the big leagues this season. If the Cubs were to draft him, there'd be no need for that. He'd spend a little time at Mesa and maybe Kane County this season. Next year he'd probably start at High A with the possiblity of a quick promotion to AA where he'd spend much of the rest of the season.

Early in the draft, I usually favor going after position players because they have more value. The provide value offensively and defensively whereas pitchers only provide value on the mound. The antiquated rules in the National League force the pitcher to provide sub-replacement level value while batting.

The Cubs need for lots and lots of pitching isn't making me lean toward Appel. I like that he could provide value quickly, which would mean that there would be less risk in drafting him. The newest CBA caused fewer good players to reach free agency (think Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo extensions). Teams are locking players up early and these good players are reaching free agency at an older age. Because of this, I'm wondering if the risk of the draft prospect hasn't become the most important consideration early in the draft.

I wouldn't want to take Appel over a guy who was clealry a better draft prospect. Estimating risk is difficult enough with amateur players so if your choice is two players of different levels of talent, you should always take the one who is better.

Jonathan Gray's 94-97 mph fastball with heavy sink might have more upside than Appel. Kris Bryant's 80 power might be better than any skill that Appel possesses. Despite this, neither of them are clearly the better prospect. You can make an argument quite easily for any of these players, along with a few others.

This is where I think risk has become more important than ever. Perhaps instead of choosing the guy with the highest upside (probably Bryant), you take a similarly talented player who you think has a better chance of being productive at the MLB level.

Any of these players would instantly make the Cubs farm system better. Gray or Appel would immediately become the organization's top pitching prospect. Bryant would probably fit in nicely right behind Jorge Soler at the top. Any of these would be a good pick and an improvement over what they already have.

So who do you take? You are the Cubs and whatever player you hope they get is still available after the Astros pick. Who is it?

I'm taking Mark Appel. Based on what I've read, I like this chances to be a productive MLB player better than the others.

What about you? Vote below and discuss in the comments. Baseball America, MLB.com and Keith Law rankings in parantheses.

The post 2013 MLB Draft: who do you take? appeared first on Obstructed View.

Things didn’t fall apart for the Smokies until after starter Eric Jokisch left the game. He pitched 6.2 innings, allowed 7 hits and 2 runs. He walked a batter and struckout 5. Then Trey McNutt came in and pitched 0.2 innings. He gave up 2 hits and 2 runs. He was followed by Brian Schlitter who also pitched .2 innings. He allowed 3 hits and 4 runs.

Matt Szczur was 1-4 and was caught stealing for the 3rd time. Arismendy Alcantara was 2-3 and so was Jair Fernandez. Fernandez hit a home run and drew a walk. Rubi Silva, Christian Villanueva and Jonathon Mota each added a hit.

Charlotte Stone Crabs 7 @ Daytona Cubs 1

Austin Kirk has had a rough season. He threw 4 innings and gave up 7 hits and 6 runs. He walked 4 and struckout 4. To give you an idea how useless wins and losses for pitchers are, he’s thrown 38 innings this season, given up 46 hits and 24 runs on 7 home runs, 16 walks and 30 strikeouts. Despite being awful, he’s 4-2.

Luis Liria and Sheldon McDonald each threw 2 innings and both of them allowed 3 hits. Each of them struck a batter out. Frank Del Valle pitched the 9th and gave up 2 walks, 2 hits and a run. He struckout 2.

It was another terrible night at the plate for the Daytona Cubs. They had 5 hits and a walk as they scored only 1 run. John Andreoli was 1-3 with a walk. He was drafted in the 17th round in 2011 and turns 23 in June. He’s mostly played LF in his career and has a total of 1 home run. He has played some CF, which will be necessary for him to get to the big leagues. So far this year in 34 games, he’s hit .323/.412/.425. He’s also stolen 10 bases. He only has 8 extra base hits, though.

There were four Cubs who were 1-4: Javier Baez, Dustn Geiger, Ben Carhart and Chadd Krist. The Cubs had no extra base hits. Jorge Soler was 0-4 with 2 strikeouts.

Peoria Chiefs 0 @ Kane County Cougars 4

Taylor Scott and Nathan Dorris combined on a 3-hit shutout against the Chiefs. Scott threw 7.1 innings, allowed 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 2. Dorris pitched the final 1.2 innings and gave up a hit.

The 20-year old Taylor Scott has had a fine start to his 2013 season. The South African was picked in the 5th round of the 2011 draft out of Notre Dame Prep High. He’s not a guy who strikes many out. Last year at Boise he struckout 43 in 71.1 innings. This year he’s struckout 23 in 38.1 innings. He’s walked 15, allowed only 1 home run and given up 30 hits.

Pin-Chieh Chen and Rock Shoulders were each 1-3 with a walk. Shoulders struckout twice and Chen struckout once. Bijan Rademacher, Dan Vogelbach and Willson Contreras were each 2-4.

Jeimer Candelario was 1-4 with a strikeout. Gioskar Amaya was dropped to 8th in the order and went 0-2 with a strikeout. Marco Hernandez was 2-3.

VSL Cubs 7 @ VSL Phillies

I know next to nothing about the VSL team and probably won’t be writing much about them until later on. So check out the box score because I’m going to highlight maybe one person per game for awhile.

Amaldo Cabrera was 3-5 with 3 doubles.

The post JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-15-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.

Barret Loux is just another terrible I-Cubs player. Last night he threw 3.1 innings, gave up 9 hits and 7 runs. He walked 3 and struckout 2. On the season, he’s made 6 starts and thrown 23 innings. If you guessed 37 hits allowed, you were right. He’s given up 21 runs. He’s walked 16 and struckout 22. If he wasn’t allowing nearly 2 baserunners per inning, that strikeout rate would be impressive.

Yoanner Negrin threw 2.2 innings and allowed 7 hits. He walked a batter and despite allowing 8 baserunners, he gave up only 3 runs. Hisanori Takahashi pitched a clean 7th inning. Casey Coleman gave up 3 hits and a run in 1 inning pitched.

Brett Jackson was 1-4 with a strikeout. Brian Bogusevic and Brade Nelson were each 2-4 with a double. The only other I-Cubs with hits was Donnie Murphy and Ian Stewart. Each were 1-3.

Tennessee Smokies 3 @ Jackson Generals 2

Alberto Cabrera had a nice start. He threw 7 innings, allowed 5 hits, walked only 1 and struckout 7. He gave up a solo home run and that was the only run that scored. Marcus Hatley, Zach Rosscup and Frank Batista each pitched 1 inning. Rosscup gave up 2 hits, a walk and a run while striking out 2. The other two didn’t give up hits or walks.

Matt Szczur was 3-5 with a strikeout. Christian Villanueva was 2-3 with a double, walk and a strikeout. Four other Smokies had a hit.

Ronald Torreyes was 1-5 with a double. Arismendy Alcantara and Rafael Lopez were each 1-5 with a strikeout. Tim Torres was 1-2 with a walk.

Charlotte Stone Crabs 4 @ Daytona Cubs 2

Ben Wells threw 5.1 innings, allowed 6 hits, 2 walks and 2 runs. He struckout 4. Wells has shown his usual command on the mound. He’s walked 15 in 43 innings, continued to give up tons of groundballs and has been better than the stats when you consider his age. He has given up 4 home runs, but 3 of them were in one start. His biggest problem continues to be an inability to get swings and misses. He’s struckout just 24. His FIP prior to this start was an unimpressive 4.71. Those strikeout numbers just aren’t going to work. Unless he figures out a way to miss more bats, he’s just not very good.

Jeffrey Lorick threw 0.2 innings and allowed a hit. Eduardo Figueroa threw 1 inning, walked 2 and allowed 2 hits. He gave up 2 runs. Austin Reed didn’t suck in his 2 innings. He gave up 2 hits and a walk. He wasn’t good. He just didn’t suck, which is an improvement.

The Cubs had only 4 hits and a walk. Javier Baez was 1-4 with the inevitable 2 strikeouts. He was also picked off. When that guy actually gets on base, he can’t afford to be taken off base. John Andreoli, Dustin Geiger and Chad Noble were each 1-3.

Peoria Chiefs 8 @ Kane County Cougars 4

Hector Hernandez threw 5.1 innings, allowed 6 hits, 4 walks and 4 runs. He struckout 3 and gave up 1 home run. Corey Baker struckout 3 in 1.2 innings. Zach Petrick gave up a hit and had 2 strikeouts in 2 innings of work.

Gioskar Amaya was 1-2 with 2 walks. He’s had 9 extra base hits on the season. That’s it. Rock Shoulders was 2-4 with a double. Promote him to Daytona. Willson Contreras was 2-2 with a home run. He was taken out mid-game and Yaniel Cabezas went 1-2.

The post JOT: Minor League Recap 5-14-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.

Anthony Rizzo has signed a long term extension with the Cubs. Ken Rosenthal has the details. The deal is for at least seven years (including 2013) and $41 million, which includes what would have been Rizzo's first free agent season in 2019. In addition, it contains two club options which would bring the total contract to 9 years and $68 million, with escalators that could potentially increase that total to $73 million.

My off the cuff reaction to the deal is that the Cubs received the bulk of the upside here. It's certainly possible that Rizzo doesn't pan out the way the Cubs hope (think early Carlos Pena), but at approximately $6 mill per season, it won't be a lead weight on the franchise. In a medium case (think Adam LaRoche), it's a fair deal, and shouldn't be difficult to move. If Rizzo continues to improve, however, (think Derrek Lee) this could be an absolute steal. In 2020, I would venture to guess that a 2 yr/ 29 million dollar deal will look reasonable for a 30 year-old first baseman near the prime of his career. 

I wanted to include GW's reaction because I pretty much felt the same way. I was heading to bed when I read about the contract, but based on the early details, I thought of two players: Prince Fielder and Carlos Pena. I figured that represented the upside that Rizzo possesses, as well as the downside.

There's always a chance that he just breaks down and doesn't even come close to Pena, but let's be reasonable here. While that chance exists for all players, we still have a pretty good idea at this point of what to expect from Rizzo. That range of expected performance, in my opinion, could be anywhere between Pena and Fielder. That was my initial thought.

I figured I'd take a closer look in the morning. The place to start would be the projections.

Fangraphs has two rest of season projections: Steamer and ZiPS. Over a full season, those are a little above 3 WAR so I rounded down to 3 as the starting point. Since the contract covers 2013, that's where we start.

After finishing this little exercise, I thought "holy shit, that's gotta be almost identical to Prince Fielder." It is. If you look at Fielder's fWAR beginning in his 2nd season, which is about where we're at with Rizzo, he'll be up to 28 fWAR by the end of the season.

The last column there is what we'd estimate his salaries to be each year if he did not sign the extension. 2019 would have been his first year of free agency so I used $20 million. It's difficult to figure out what the cost per win will be by then, but it's very easy to see how that 4 WAR then could end up being worth over $30 million.

We'd expect him to be paid roughly $64 million if he went year to year and performed up to his rest of season ZiPS and Steamer projections. Instead, they'll pay him $41 million.

This is the higher end of what we could reasonably expect. We're talking about Prince Fielder and although that's what his projections (and a typical aging curve) might suggest, it's Prince fucking Fielder. So let's go a little lower. Let's use PECOTA, which has been the least optimistic about Rizzo's future.

We'll call this the Ryan Howard plan. You still have to love the contract. Now let's look at the Carlos Pena plan.

If we look back on this contract and get only 11.5 WAR, I think we'd still be happy with it. It's probably an overpay, but we've already established this as the low end of what we could expect.

Back to Prince Fielder since the projections essentially tell us that's who Rizzo is. Fielder was paid about $58 million through his first season of free agency (2012). Considering inflation, you'd expect Rizzo to be paid more than that, but he won't be. So even if we end up getting Ryan Howard, the Cubs still come out of this better than the Brewers (and Tigers) did with Fielder.

I'm thrilled with this contract. You'd literally have to be looking at the worst case scenario for this not to be a good deal to the Cubs. Forget about the option years, which is only makes the contract better. This is just fantastic.

I wish the Cubs could have come out of the Starlin Castro negotiations the same way. I felt he was overpaid and still do. I don't believe Castro would have earned $60 million going through arbitration. It would have been close, but the Cubs are taking on the risk and not getting much of a benefit.

The post A look at Anthony Rizzo’s new contract appeared first on Obstructed View.

Here are the I-Cubs pitchers today: Chris Rusin, Casey Coleman, Hisanori Takahashi, Rafael Dolis and Blake Parker.

Here are the I-Cubs pitcher today who have no chance of ever being good: Chris Rusin, Casey Coleman, Hisanori Takahashi, Rafael Dolis and Blake Parker

Other than Casey Coleman, who threw 2 hitless innings and struck a batter out, the rest of them weren't any good. I-Cubs pitchers today threw 8.2 innings, allowed 12 hits and 9 runs. He walked 2 and struckout 4 while allowing 3 home runs.

Logan Watkins played SS and was 0-4 with a walk and 2 strikeouts. Brett Jackson's new swing was 3-4 with a double and a walk. He did not strike out, which must mean that Josh Vitters took a walk. Yep. He took 2 of them while also going 1-3. Brad Nelson was 2-4 with a home run.

A bunch of others played today who pretty much suck so whatever.

Tennessee Smokies 5 @ Jackson Generals 5

Kyle Hendricks threw 6.2 innings, allowed 4 hits and no runs. He walked 1 and struckout 4. He’s off to a great start this year after struggling when he first came to the Cubs last year. He’s thrown 37.2 innings, allowed 35 hits and only 1 home run. He’s walked 9 and struckout 32. His strikeout percentage is about 21% and his walk rate is about 6%. His FIP prior to last night’s starts was an impressive 2.59. His walk rate is up a bit, but it’s still pretty good. He’s also maintained the same strikeout rate. He’s allowed only 1 home run all season.

He changed his mechanics a bit at the beginning of last season and started focusing on pitch sequences according to Baseball America. He also added a cutter and he said he uses it as a contact pitch. I’d assume this remains true with the Cubs. He sits 87-89 mph so he won’t blow anyone away. He’s in the strikezone regularly. Along with the cutter, he throws a 4-seam and 2-seam fastball, a changeup, a curveball and a slider.

AJ Morris struckout 2 and walked a batter in an inning of work. He also allowed 2 hits, but despite 3 baserunners, no runs were scored. Zach Rosscup finished the game and threw 1.1 hitless innings, allowed a walk and 3 strikeouts. His ERA is down to 1.08.

Matt Szczur was 3-5 with a double. Ronald Torreyes was 1-4 with a double. Arismendy Alcantara was 2-4 with a double and 2 strikeouts. Christian Villanueva was 1-2 with a hit by pitch, strikeout and sac fly.

Kane County Cougars 6 @ Clinton LumberKings 7

I went to Clinton, Iowa once. I don't remember much about it. It was a typical Iowa town along the Mississippi River, which usually meant meth. Lots of meth. I don't know if they've had that problem, but they were a river town. They also had the following motto: So many things to do – With a river view!

It did have a river view, but I don't remember doing shit or ever wanting to go back there again. About an hour away from Clinton is Muscatine, Iowa. It's also on the Mississippi, which means lot of meth. It's also the Watermelon Capital of the World. You could have a lovely picnic along the shitty and disgusting Mississippi River while eating melons and getting high on meth. Way more to do in Muscatine and they have a river view, too.

Getting back to Clinton, I can't think of a minor league team name that I like more. I like because it has two capital letters and it's only one word. And it's a cool name.

Dillon Maples made his first start of the year and threw 5 innings, allowed 6 hits and 3 runs. He didn't walk anybody and he struckout 2. Then came Lendy Castillo and Lendy Castillo fucking sucks. They let Lendy Castillo fucking suck for the rest of the game.

The other day I mentioned that Jeimer Candelario hadn't hit for any power so far this year. For that matter, he hasn't hit for a lot of power in his short minor league career. As a 3rd baseman, that's not good. He did hit his first home run of the season today and went 2-4 with a walk.

Carlos Escobar and Oliver Zapata were also 2-4 each. Gioskar Amaya continues to suck. He was 0-5. Dan Vogelbach was 1-5 with a strikeout.

The post JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-12-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.

My off the cuff reaction to the deal is that the Cubs received the bulk of the upside here. It's certainly possible that Rizzo doesn't pan out the way the Cubs hope (think early Carlos Pena), but at approximately $6 mill per season, it won't be a lead weight on the franchise. In a medium case (think Adam LaRoche), it's a fair deal, and shouldn't be difficult to move. If Rizzo continues to improve, however, (think Derrek Lee) this could be an absolute steal. In 2020, I would venture to guess that a 2 yr/ 29 million dollar deal will look reasonable for a 30 year-old first baseman near the prime of his career. 

On track to be a super two player, Rizzo would have had four years of arbitration (2015-2018). I don't think it's a stretch that in the medium case or better scenario he would have earned nearly all of the $41 million that's guaranteed in this deal in those four arbitration years plus one year of free agency, in which case the option years are gravy for the organization. Stay tuned to OV for more analysis on the deal.

The post Anthony Rizzo Signs Extension With the Cubs appeared first on Obstructed View.

Drew Carpenter pitched 5 innings, struckout 6 and walked just 1. He allowed a home run, a total of 6 hits and 3 runs. Casey Coleman gave up 3 hits, walked 2 and struckout 2 in an inning of work. 2 runs scored. Zach Putnam pitched the final 2innings and allowed a hit and struck a batter out.

Pinch hitter Darnell McDonald hit a home run. Brett Jackson, Brad Nelson and Alberto Gonzalez had the only other I-Cubs hits on the night. Each had 2.

Birmingham Barons 9 @ Tennessee Smokies 7

Alberto Cabrera gave up 13 hits and walked 3 in 4.1 innings. I’m not even sure how that’s possible, but what is most impressive is that despite 18 baserunners (he also hit a batter), the Barons only scored 6 runs off of him. So maybe we should just talk about how his strand rate was about league average.

Kevin Rhoderick allowed a run on a hit and 2 walks in 3 innings. He struckout 2. Trey McNutt threw 1.2 innings, allowed a hit and 2 walks and 2 runs. He struckout 1.

Rafael Lopez was 1-4 with a home run and a walk. Tim Torres was 3-4 with a double and a strikeout. Jair Fernandez was 2-3 with a walk.

Arismendy Alcantara has really been struggling over the last couple of weeks. He was 1-4 with a strikeout. Over his last 10 he’s hit .182/.250/.242.

Dunedin Blue Jays 3 @ Daytona Cubs 4

PJ Francescon pitched 5 innings, allowed hits and 3 runs. He struckout 4 and walked none. He also gave up a home run.

Fracescon has made 7 starts this year and pitched a total of 35 innings. He’s struckout 31 and walked only 7. He has allowed 5 home runs, which is a bit troubling, but the K/BB rate is pretty good.

Jeffrey Lorick pitched a clean inning. Austin Reed walked 2 in an inning of work and Hunter Cervenka pitched 2 innings, allowed a hit and struck a batter out.

Zeke DeVoss is working on a demotion to Kane County. Although he has no problem at all getting on base (.375 OBP), his batting average is now down to .200. He’s slugging a Ryan Theriot-esque .324. Even over the last 10 days, he’s only hit .094, but his OBP is still .275. Far from acceptable, but even when he struggles the guy gets on base in other ways. He’s been one of my favorite prospects, but he needs some more balls to fall in for hits and needs to flash a little more power.

If Zeke DeVoss is working on a demotion to Kane County, Tim Saunders is working on a demotion back to Marietta College. He was 1-4 last night, but he struckout two more times. His strikeout rate is over 30% and his walk rate at about 7%. He has a total of 3 extra base hits on the season in just under 100 plate appearances. He’s batting only .188/.278/.247.

Javier Baez had a good night, going 2-4 with a double and a triple. He stole base and committed his 14th error of the season in just 31 games. John Andreoli and Dustin Geiger each added 2 hits, and so did Taiwan Easterling. Andreoli tripled. Jorge Soler doubled in 4 plate appearances.

Kane County Cougars @ Burlington Bees (postponed)

The post JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-9-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.

Last year, there was a large top group of talent with varying price tags that allowed the Astros to be creative. This year there's a top group of two players: Appel & Gray. Appel has a better frame, arm action, delivery, track record and projectability along with a wider base of skills. Right now they may be comparable prospects, but scouts prefer Appel going forward… With a weaker crop to spend savings later from this pick, Gray will need to come in well below Appel's price tag to get serious consideration here, but he doesn't have the motivation to do that as he'll get paid just fine going second.

If the Astros have the same feelings as McDaniel, they will probably take him first overall and offer slot value. However, McDaniel also hears that the Cubs are very high on Appel, which could push them towards drastic actions:

This could create a situation where the Cubs could float a full slot or above slot number to Appel to see if they can play the signability game to get him slide to them.

The signability card used to be wielded by draft candidates with some regularity in order for them to get more money, but the current CBA makes that very difficult. Could the Cubs and Appel feasibly strongarm the Astros into passing on Apple under the current system? I do think it's possible.

For this exercise, let's assume that the Astros would offer slot value for Appel, but no more (keeping in mind they set a hard line at significantly less than slot for their top pick last year). If the Cubs really wanted to go all in, it would have to look something like this:

1. Make it clear to Appel that they will offer significantly more than #1 slot value.

This would require significant sacrifice on the part of the Cubs. The difference between the slot value of the #1 and #2 picks is about $1.1 million. The Cubs could offer up a 5% overslot for their entire draft budget (approximately $0.5 million) to close that gap to $0.6 million. In addition, they would need to essentially punt on other early selections in the draft. The slot value of their second pick is $1.4 million. Taking an extremely signable college senior at that slot would allow them to devote nearly the entirety of that money to an Appel offer and substantially top the slot value for the #1 overall pick. They could do the same for a combination of their third and fourth round picks, or their fourth through seventh picks, or fifth through tenth, etc…

2. Convince Appel to take a hard line with the Astros.

Appel is advised by Scott Boras, which is really all that needs to be said. The Appel/Boras duo played hardball last year, and could well do the same this year if given assurances by the Cubs. They have limited leverage, but not none. No team wants to risk giving up a year's worth of development time on a prospect when there are other good options available.

Would it be worth it for the Cubs to sacrifice #41 overall to "move up" from #2 to #1? Historically, yes. In the 2013 MLB draft? I have no idea. If Appel really grades out that much better than Gray, it's probably a decent bet. To take some recent examples, is upgrading from (#2) Dustin Ackley to (#1) Stephen Strasburg worth (#41) Chris Owings? Of course. Is it worth (#40) Tyler Skaggs or (#42) Garrett Richards? Still yes. How about upgrading from Danny Hultzen to Gerrit Cole (prior to Hultzen's injury)? Is it worth (#40) Jackie Bradley Jr.? Maybe not.

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