Quiet game. Logan Watkins got a start at 2B and went 1-3 with a CS (his 8th of the year). Brian Bogusevic was scheduled to be called up for 15 seconds yesterday after the Borbon collision, but he seems to be fine. He went 1-3 with a solo shot. Brett Jackson 2: Des Moines Nights (did I use this one yet?) went 0-3 with a strikeout. Dave Sappelt had a 1-3 day with a strikeout. His average is up to .233 now. Brad Nelson had the other objectively good game, going 1-2 with a double and a walk. Ian Stewart drew a start and went 1-3. His meteoric rise in avg continues (.148). 

Brooks Raley only threw 45 pitches in this game and was mildly effective. I'm really curious if he's injured or not, because this was a double header and he was on pace to easily just pitch the whole game himself. He had 3 innings of 1 run ball, on a solo shot. He walked 2 and K'ed 4. Esmailin Caridad had 3 solid innings in relief, and Rafael Dolis picked up the win in the 7th, with 3 strikeouts and a walk.

Las Vegas 51s 5 @ Iowa Cubs 6 (Game 2, 7 innings)

The Cubs sent out the B-team in this one. The only prospect was Josh Vitters, who went 0-3 with a strikeout. 

Barret Loux had a curious start; he allowed a single hit in 5.1 innings, but a combination of errors on Vitters and Yokids resulted in 4 runs allowed (2 earned). He also walked 3 so it wasn't all rosy. Zach Putnam helpfully blew the save and picked up the win; he had 0.2 innings of 3 hit, 1 run ball. Blake Parker continues to perform well this year, collecting his 6th save.

Tennessee Smokies 4 @ Chattanooga Lookouts 5 (11 innings)

Ugly day for the bats in Chattanooga today. The Smokies had 17 strikeouts. Matt Szczur had 4 of them (1-6, 2B), Arismendy Alcantara had 3 and his 15th error (1-5), as did Rafael Lopez (0-4, BB). Rubi Silva had no strikeouts and went 2-5 with a triple and 2 RBI. Christian Villanueva continues to warm up; he went 1-4 with a walk and double. Ronald Torreyes did not play until coming in as a pinch-hitter. He scored an RBI.

Instead of talking about all of the pitchers, here they are in their glory. Notice how Matt Loosen allowed 3 runs in 4 innings to get his ERA lowered to 7.99. 

The game ended on a wild pitch by Batista combined with a throwing error by backup C Jair Fernandez. The Smokies had Rubi Silva on 3rd with one out in the top of the ninth, but Villanueva and Lopez both struck out.

Daytona Cubs 7 @ Jupiter Hammerheads 2 (10 innings)

What if I told you that only one person on the Cubs drew a walk today? Where would Javier Baez be on your list of "most likely to be that person?" I'd say he's around 9th, but here we are. Baez went 2-4 with a walk and a strikeout. Jorge Soler went 2-5 with 2 RBIs. Both Chad Noble and Chadd Krist went 2-4, and Ben Carhart had 3 hits including a double.

P.J. Francescon had a good start. He lasted 6 innings and the only run he allowed was a solo blast in the 6th. Austin Reed pitched 2 innings and allowed a run, and Frank of the Valley collected his first win of the season with 2 innings of no-run work. 

VSL Cubs 12 @ VSL Tigers 2

Harrinson Bermudez collected the win. He pitched 2 innings, struck out none, allowed no hits, and walked 4.

The post JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-21-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.

Tennessee Smokies 9 @ Chattanooga Lookouts 2 (Game 1 – 7 innings)

Matt Szczur had a double and 2 RBI, and a strikeout also. Ronald Torreyes continues to cool off with an 0-4 performance. Arismendy Alcantara is really picking it up as of late, going 3-4 with 2 doubles and 2 RBI and 2 runs scored. It's nice to see; I have a divergent opinion from Luke regarding Alcantara, and I still think I'm right. His BABIP is lower than it usually is, but it has always been an unsustainably high number. Alcantara does not profile to have a BABIP north of .340; that's just not the type of hitter he is. His walk rate is up (and he's been on fire lately), but so are his strikeouts. He also doesn't look like he can stick at SS (but might stick at 2B). I'm optimistic that Alcantara can take a step forward this year (and with his past 3 games, he's actually improved upon his ISO). He's a terror on the basepaths, also, which will be nice. Christian Villanueva had a 2-run bomb in the 4th inning for his 3rd shot of the year. It was his only hit. Rubi Silva had a double and single for an RBI. Jonathon Mota scored 2 runs on a hit, walk, and strikeout. Alberto Cabrera even drove in a run with a double. 

Alberto Cabrera pitched a complete game for the Smokies. He allowed 5 hits and 2 walks accounting for 2 runs, and he K'ed 6. 

Tennessee Smokies 0 @ Chattanooga Lookouts 1 (Game 2 – 7 innings)

The only extra-base hit the Smokies collected was another double from Eric Jokisch, the starting pitcher. The only other players to get a hit were Ronald Torreyes (1-3), Christian Villanueva (2-3), and Ty Wright (1-3). Arismendy Alcantara did have a pinch hit walk, as did Rubi Silva. Those were the only two walks of the game for the Smokies.

Eric Jokisch had a great perfomance. He went 6 scoreless, with 3 hits, a walk, and 5 strikeouts. He needed a good performance after a rash of bad ones. Marcus Hatley blew the game in the bottom of the 7th.

Daytona Cubs 1 @ Jupiter Hammerheads 4

John Andreoli had a rough night. He barely missed the golden sombrero (0-4, 3 K). Zeke DeVoss went 2-3 and was hit by a pitch. Javier Baez had a good night, with his 10th and 11th doubles and a strikeout. His average is now .262 on the year. Jorge Soler had a bad night at the plate; he had a single and 3 strikeouts. Chadd Krist had a single and a walk. As a team, the Cubs struckout 15 times. That's pretty unacceptable; only DeVoss didn't have a strikeout in this game.

Kyler Burke (remember him? Got him in a trade for Michael Barrett as an outfielder, converted to pitcher, 25 years old…) had a good performance in his first start of the season. He went 5 innings, allowed 4 hits, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts, and a run. You have to figure they'll promote him aggressively. Eduardo Figueroa was tagged for 3 runs in 2.1 innings of work and was quite hittable. Sheldon McDonald allowed a hit in 0.2 innings.

Kane County Cougars 7 @ Cedar Rapids Kernels 8

Gioskar Amaya had a great day. He went 2-4 with 2 doubles and a walk. Dan Vogelbach had 2 strikeouts, 2 RBI, and 2 singles. He was also picked off. Jeimer Candelario had a really nice day, with a run and 2 RBI off of a 4-5 day. Rock Shoulders kept the bat more or less on his shoulder; he went 0-2 with 3 walks. Oliver Zapata was 1-4 with a doulbe and a run scored (also an RBI). 

Tayler Scott has had a pretty nice year but he was awful today. He allowed a home run to Twins' megaprospect Byron Buxton, but he allowed 7 other hits and 2 walks also in a 5.1 IP, 5 R, 4 ER night. He struck out 4. Nathan Dorris blew the save and took the loss with 1.2 innings of 3-run ball. Steve Perakslis mopped it up in the 8th. 

The post JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-20-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.

Logan Watkins went 0-4 today without walking or striking out. Both Brian Bogusevic and 2 Brett 2 Jackson went 1-3 with a walk, strikeout, and run scored. Dave Sappelt is coming around, with a 2-4, 2 run performance. Brad Nelson had a great day; he had a 2-run jack and a double, scoring 5 RBIs. Donnie Murphy also had a home run. Hyde Yokids went 0-3 with a strikeout and 2 throwing errors. As a team, the Cubs only walked twice, but only struck out 6 times. They were 3-8 with RISP.

Nick Struck turned it on, a welcome sight given how poorly he's pitched this year. He went 6 innings and allowed 2 runs. He also struck out and walked 4. Yoanner Negrin went 3 innings for the save, allowing a single run on 4 hits and no walks. He also struck out 4. 

Tennessee Smokies @ Chattanooga Lookouts Postponed.

Daytona Cubs 5 @ Lakeland Flying Tigers 4

I had a little chat with Sahadev Sharma on twitter about Javier Baez the other day. 

Myles Handley ‏@factorialite18 May

@sahadevsharma I don't care how many tools are in the shed if the shed is permanently locked. in this case, the shed also strikes out a lot

 

 Hide conversation 

•  Reply 
•  Delete 
•  Favorite 
•  More

   

   

 

 

Sahadev does good work, and he doesn't seem all that worried about Baez. Hopefully he's right. Baez went 1-3 with a walk and no strikeouts. He also scored a run and celebrated by committing 2 more errors. John Andreoli played left, shifted to right, and went 1-5. Wes Darvill had a nice little game; he had a double and a walk. Jorge Soler had a quiet bat; 0-3 with no walks or strikeouts. Players 5-8 in the lineup each had a single RBI. The Cubs only struck out once in this game (Tim Saunders, who also had a double and 2 stolen bases).

Ben Wells had another middling start. He went 5 innings and allowed 4 runs (3 earned) on 4 hits and 2 walks. He also struck out 3 and allowed a solo shot to Aaron Westlake. Jeffrey Lorick and Luis Liria both pitched 2 strong innings to pick up the win and save, respectively.

Kane County Cougars 7 @ Cedar Rapids Kernels 8

Gioskar Amaya went 1-4 with a triple, an RBI, and a strikeout. Dan Vogelbach went 0-3 with a walk and 2 strikeouts. Jeimer Candelario was 2-4 with a double, his 15th of the year. Rock Shoulders went 1-4 with a 2-run homer. Bijan Rademacher continues to put up a nice, hollow average, going 2-4. 

Jose Rosario went 4 innings and only allowed 2 hits and a walk. Good, right? Nah, he didn't strike anyone out, and allowed a  home run and an unearned run. Ian Dickson really did not do well, allowing 6 earned runs in 4 innings also. Eddie Orozco allowed the loss in 0.2 innings. He walked 2, so good on him.

The post JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-19-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.

Chris Rusin threw 6.2 innings, allowed 5 hits and 4 runs. He walked 2 and struckout 3. He also hit a batter. Zack Putnam struckout the only batter he faced. Rafael Dolis gave up 2 hits and struck a batter out in an inning of work. Blake Parker pitched the 9th and allowed a walk and a hit. He struck a batter out.

The I-Cubs only had 6 hits and a walk in this one. Logan Watkins had one of the two extra base hits as he went 1-4 with a double. Ian Stewart also doubled and was 2-4. Donnie Murphy was 2-3.

Tennessee Smokies 7 @ Chattanooga Lookouts 5

Dallas Beeler had another strong outing. He went 6 innings, walked 2 and struckout 6. He gave up 4 hits and 3 runs. Trey McNutt struckout 2 in an inning of work.

All of the position players in the lineup had a hit. The top of the order did this:

• Matt Szczur 3-5, double
• Ronald Torreyes 2-5, double
• Arismendy Alcantara: 3-4, 2 doubles, home run

Jair Fernandez was 2-4 and Anthony Giansanti was 2-4 with a double and a triple.

Daytona Cubs 6 @ Lakeland Flying Tigers 5

Zach Cates walked 2 and only struckout 1 in 5.2 innings. He gave up 5 hits and 3 runs. David Cales threw 2.1 innings, allowed 3 hits and 2 runs. He walked a batter and struckout 4. Hunter Cervenka struckout 2 in an inning of work.

The Cubs acquired Cervenka, along with Michael Bowden, in the Marlon Byrd trade with the Red Sox. He’s appeared in 9 games this season and has thrown 17.2 innings. He’s allowed just 7 hits and 4 runs. He’s struckout 16, but he has walked 10. He’s had a tendency to walk a lot of batters so there doesn’t see to be much improvement there. He’ll either need to improve that or he may only have a career of a LOOGY ahead of him.

Zeke DeVoss and Dustin Geiger were 2-5. Geiger doubled. Javier Baez had another good day at the plate going 3-5 with a double. That’s two days in a row he’s had good results. More of it, please.

Jorge Soler continues to rake. He was 2-4 with a walk and a strikeout. Wes Darvill was 3-5.

Kane County Cougars 4 @ Cedar Rapids Kernels 0

Pierce Johnson had his best start of his career last night. He threw 6 innings and struckout 9 batters while walking only 1. He’s having a great year so far. Over 8 starts and 40.2 innings, he’s walked 12 and allowed only 1 home run. He’s struckout 45. Pierce turned 22 a week ago and it won’t be long before he’s in the Daytona rotation if he keeps this up.

Justin Amlung walked 2 and struckout 3 in 2 innings. Jeffry Antigua struckout 2 and and allowed a hit in 1 inning. The Cougars pitchers struckout 14 batters and walked only 3.

Dan Vogelbach and Rock Shoulders were both 2-4. Vogelbach had a double and a strikeout while Shoulders struckout twice and hit his 9th home run of the season. Jeimer Candelario doubled in 4 plate appearances. Oliver Zapata was 3-4 with a home run.

VSL Cubs 3 @ VSL Rays 2

The VSL Cubs had allowed a ton of runs so far. They’ve allowed 22, 8, 15, 15 and now 2 runs. It’s nice to see them play a game that I can be certain is actually baseball.

The post JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-18-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.

According to Baseball America, there are 3 players in the 2013 draft who have a tool that ranks at 80.

Evaluators rarely break out the top grade on the 20-80 scouting scale, but I believe there are three tools worthy of an 80 among the top prospects in the 2013 draft. Those three are Oklahoma righthander Jonathan Gray’s fastball, San Diego third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant’s power and Maryland high school outfielder Matt McPhearson’s speed.

Baseball America ranks Bryant as the 3rd best draft prospect. He's got ridiculous power.

Bryant’s (No. 3 on our Draft Top 100) power has been apparent for a while. It made him a borderline first-round pick coming out of a Nevada high school in 2010, though his signability scared teams off. We noted in our Preseason All-America coverage that he had the most usable pop in his draft class, but he has found a new level as a junior.

Bryant hit three homers over the weekend, boosting his total to 28, a school record and nine more than any other player in NCAA Division I. He has outhomered 228 of the 296 teams in Division I. His combination of bat speed, strength, pitch recognition, discipline and barrelability give him elite power.

He's now up to 29 home runs.

As far as the draft goes, there are probably 5 or 6 guys who stand out from the rest. Supposedly it's two this year in Gray and Mark Appel, but there can't be much of a difference between numbers 2 and 6 or 7. As long as you take one of those players, you've done well and there's no reason to complain.

I don't know nearly as much about these guys as the Cubs and others teams do. I'm not really qualified to say who, among that group, should go in which spot. When a team like the Cubs takes a Tyler Colvin or Hayden Simpson, well, that's just wrong. Neither player was ranked anywhere near the position in which they were taken. They couldn't have been an equal talent at the time of the draft.

I'm still hoping the Cubs draft Mark Appel. He may not have an 80 tool, but those are rare and I'm not sure it should stop a team from drafting him. He is probably the most polished player in the draft. Some have said he could pitch in the big leagues this season. If the Cubs were to draft him, there'd be no need for that. He'd spend a little time at Mesa and maybe Kane County this season. Next year he'd probably start at High A with the possiblity of a quick promotion to AA where he'd spend much of the rest of the season.

Early in the draft, I usually favor going after position players because they have more value. The provide value offensively and defensively whereas pitchers only provide value on the mound. The antiquated rules in the National League force the pitcher to provide sub-replacement level value while batting.

The Cubs need for lots and lots of pitching isn't making me lean toward Appel. I like that he could provide value quickly, which would mean that there would be less risk in drafting him. The newest CBA caused fewer good players to reach free agency (think Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo extensions). Teams are locking players up early and these good players are reaching free agency at an older age. Because of this, I'm wondering if the risk of the draft prospect hasn't become the most important consideration early in the draft.

I wouldn't want to take Appel over a guy who was clealry a better draft prospect. Estimating risk is difficult enough with amateur players so if your choice is two players of different levels of talent, you should always take the one who is better.

Jonathan Gray's 94-97 mph fastball with heavy sink might have more upside than Appel. Kris Bryant's 80 power might be better than any skill that Appel possesses. Despite this, neither of them are clearly the better prospect. You can make an argument quite easily for any of these players, along with a few others.

This is where I think risk has become more important than ever. Perhaps instead of choosing the guy with the highest upside (probably Bryant), you take a similarly talented player who you think has a better chance of being productive at the MLB level.

Any of these players would instantly make the Cubs farm system better. Gray or Appel would immediately become the organization's top pitching prospect. Bryant would probably fit in nicely right behind Jorge Soler at the top. Any of these would be a good pick and an improvement over what they already have.

So who do you take? You are the Cubs and whatever player you hope they get is still available after the Astros pick. Who is it?

I'm taking Mark Appel. Based on what I've read, I like this chances to be a productive MLB player better than the others.

What about you? Vote below and discuss in the comments. Baseball America, MLB.com and Keith Law rankings in parantheses.

The post 2013 MLB Draft: who do you take? appeared first on Obstructed View.

As I was typing this, it was 9-6. The Cubs had to score 2 runs in the bottom of the ninth to make it interesting, but of course they failed to win it. 

Logan Watkins went yard for the 3rd time this season. It was his only hit; he also walked once and struck out twice. He grounded out to end the game. Thanks Logan, I didn't want to stay up any longer. Hide Yokids went 2-5 with a strikeout. Brett Jackson was really good today so I won't make a stupid entertainment-related pun for him today. He was 4-5 with a double. No, he didn't strikeout. Dave Sappelt went 2-5 with a double and a strikeout. Josh Vitters climbs the ladder with a 3-3, 2B performance. However, he also had the triple crown of stupidity; he was picked off, caught stealing, and had an error. He drove in a run and scored twice. Ian Stewart had a pinch-hit strikeout, and eventually walked. Attaboy.

Guillermo Moscoso was really hurt by that error but he also was poor today. He went 5 innings and surrendered 9 hits. 4 runs scored, 2 earnred, and he struckout 8 and walked none. As you type it out, you get the sense that Guillermo was likely very unlucky today. Esmailin Caridad should probably pack it up; with his 3 runs allowed in 0.2 innings, his ERA is up to 7.16. Casey Coleman had a rough outing as well, allowing 5 baserunners and 2 runs in 2.1 innings. Hisanori Takahashi was the janitor, throwing a perfect ninth.

Kane County Cougars 3 @ Cedar Rapids Kernels 4 (12 innings)

Bijan Rademacher again had the best night of the crew, with a 3-5, 2 run performance. He also had a double. Dan Vogelbach went 1-5, as did Marco Hernandez. Jeimer Candelario went 2-5 with a double, and celebrated with a throwing error. Gioskar Amaya was demoted all the way to 8th in the lineup; he went 2-5 with a strikeout.

Dillon Maples got the start! He went 5 innings and only allowed 2 hits. Unfortunately, he allowed 2 runs, with a walk and 5 strikeouts. Lendy Castillo could teach him a thing or two; he went 5 strong innings and allowed a single run. His ERA is down to 8.07. Nathan Dorris lost the game for the Cougars in the 12th inning.

Tennessee Smokies 4 @ Chattanooga Lookouts 3

Quite the bland game. Matt Szczur went 2-5. Ronald Torreyes went 1-5 with 2 RBI. Arismendy Alcantara continues to flounder; he went 0-4 with his 13th error of the season. Christian Villanueva heard about being on dmick's list and decided to hit today, going 3-4 with 2 doubles, an RBI, and a run scored. Tim Torres also had a nice game, going 1-2 with 2 walks. No one else was notable.

Kyle Hendricks took the mound in what might be one of his last starts as a Smokie. He did what he was supposed to; 7 innings, 6 hits, 3 earned runs, a walk, and 3 strikeouts. The big damage was a 2 run blast in the 7th because I fucking jinxed him. Tony Zych threw a perfect eighth, and Zach Rosscup faced 4 batters and allowed no contact in the 9th for his first save.

The Smokies faced Zach Lee, who used to be a quite notable prospect (and one in endless trade scenarios involving Dempster. They tagged him pretty good. They also face Yasiel Puig, a top hitting prospect that the Cubs were briefly linked to before Soler. He went 1-3 with a double, a walk, and a strikeout.

Daytona Cubs 5 @ Lakeland Flying Tigers 1 (7 innings)

Jorge Fucking Soler! He went 4-4 with a HR, and RBI, and 3 runs scored. And he didn't even have the best game on the team! Dustin Geiger went 4-4 with 3 doubles and a triple. That's a career game; add 4 RBIs to that toal and he's gotta be thrilled. There were only two other hits on the team (Javier Baez, 1-4, and Tim Saunders, 1-3), but who cares. Those two performances were sublime.

Yeiper Castillo pitched a complete game (it was only 7 innings). He allowed a solo shot in the 7th inning but dominated the rest of the way. He's had a quietly phenomenal year thus far.

Daytona Cubs 7 @ Lakeland Flying Tigers 4 (12 innings)

Javier Baez must think he gets paid by the error. He had 3 in this game, which probably offsets his offensive contributions (2-5, 3B, BB, 3 runs). Jorge Soler had a much worse game than his other one, going 3-6 with a double. Dustin Geiger was the shit yet again, with 2 walks, 3-4 with a double and 2 runs. Taiwan Easterling only had 2 hits in 6 plate appearances, but they were a double and a triple. Ben Carhart also had a nice one; he was 0-3, but walked twice and drove in a run. As a team, the Cubs walked 6 times and struck out only 5.

Eduardo Figueroa got the start today. He was not so good. He only lasted 3 innings and gave up 4 runs on 4 hits/2 walks. Austin Reed shut the Tigers down in the 4th and 5th, and Sheldon McDonald was aces, going 4 strong innings. Frank Del Valle finished it off with 3 great innings to collect his first win of the year.

VSL Mariners 15 @ VSL Cubs 8

Programming Note

I'm in a wedding tomorrow. I will not be writing the recap for Saturday's game.

The post JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-17-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.

Before this season, both dmick/Uncle Dave and I made our prospect lists. These aren't the only prospects in the Cubs system, but they are nearly all the ones worth talking about. I might have missed a prospect here or there, but it's a good jumping off point. The list of the first 21 is right here:

Javier Baez 65
Jorge Soler 65
Dan Vogelbach 65
Albert Almora 60
Brett Jackson 60
Gioskar Amaya 55
Arismendy Alcantara 55
Arodys Vizcaino 55
Logan Watkins 50
Christian Villanueva 50
Junior Lake 50
Dillon Maples 50
Duane Underwood 50
Jeimer Candelario 45
Dave Sappelt 45
Marco Hernadez 45
Matt Szczur 45
Pierce Johnson 45
Paul Blackburn 45
Josh Vitters 40
Juan Paniagua 40

Starting this month, dmick89 and I are going to cover which prospect we think are rising and falling. We'll focus on 3 or 4 guys, and list any honorable mentions we might have. Keep in mind, this is only for actually prospects; Brian Bogusevic is tearing up AAA but that's not as important as Jorge Soler tearing up A+ ball. — Myles

Stats are current through Wednesday's games

3. Gioskar Amaya: I was probably a little higher on Amaya entering this season than a lot of people, but even if I used MLB.com's 18th ranked prospect in the Cubs system, Amaya has fallen. He hit 8 home runs last year in short-season Boise, led the league in triples, and he added 6 more doubles. He slugged .498, which gave him an ISO near .200. His OBP was nearly 100 points higher than his average. For a 2nd baseman, these numbers were impressive.

So I've been more than a little disappointed with Amaya's results in 2013. Promoted to full season A ball at Kane County, he's been terrible. His walk rate has been cut in half (down below 6%) and his strikeout rate increased to nearly 25%. He hasn't yet hit a home run and has 9 extra base hits. He's hit .237/.280/.321, which is good for a 71 wRC+.

There's still plenty of time for Amaya to improve these numbers, but it's going to be difficult to have season ending numbers that look that impressive. He was rated near the bottom of the lists by the prospect analysts and is likely to drop off at this point.

2. Marco Hernandez: what was supposed to be a fantastic Cougars infield that boasted a legitimate prospect at every position has turned out to be disastrous. Hernandez struggled last year when he was promoted to A ball. His average was down, OBP down and slugging down. That's all true this year. He did have a couple nice games yesterday and that's not reflected in the stats.

His walk rate is horrendous. It's below 3%. In 280 A ball plate appearances he has a total of 12 extra base hits. He is only 20 years old and plays a premium position, but this guy has shown little skill beyond the ability to play SS.

Dave and I had Hernandez near the bottom of our list of prospects. I'm comfortable in knocking him down further at this point and depending on whether or not he shows much improvement the rest of the way, off the list entirely. The Draft is coming up next month so there will be two or three players that will sneak in above him and potentially pushing off.

1. Javier Baez. You knew it would be Baez. Baez currently has an ISO of .224, which is very good. It's allowed him to be productive enough so that his wRC+ is essentially league average (98). Doesn't sound so bad. It is bad.

Last year when he hit .188/.224/.400 (.288 wOBA, 76 wRC+) at Daytona in 88 plate appearances, you could point to him getting adjusted to the league, his .200 BABIP or highlight his .213 ISO and say things were going to be all good. The ISO is basically the same and, predictably, his BABIP has increased to .292. He's hitting just .238/.271/.462.

He's walking less than ever before and Baez was never one to take a lot of pitches. His walk rate is down to 3.2% and his strikeout rate has jumped to 29.0%. That's higher than Brett Jackson at the same level. Most of his strikeout rates are higher than Jackson's at the same levels. The difference between the two being that Jackson was very good at getting on base via the walk. Baez is not. He's flat out terrible at taking walks.

Prior to High A, Baez had 235 plate appearances in A ball. He hit .333/.383/.596. Those are ridiculous numbers for someone his age. In 241 A+ plate appearances, he's hit .220/.261/.439. Much of Baez's rankings have been based on the 235 A-ball plate appearances, but he now has nearly as many in A+ as he had before. Baez also had 18 plate appearances in rookie ball and A-.

Baez just hasn't been very good at all since getting to Daytona. I think anybody would agree that a .260ish OBP isn't going to cut it.

There are a handful of FSL players with 3 or 4 walks on the year. Baez has 5. He has the 3rd most strikeouts. He has the 26th lowest batting average this year. He has the 10th lowest OBP. Of the 7 FSL players with a lower walk rate, only 3 of them have a strikeout rate above 18.4%.

To make things even worse, Baez has made 14 errors this year in 35 games played. He stole 25 bases in his 253 pre-High A plate appearances. He's stolen 7 in Daytona.

One of the things that was actually impressive about Baez prior to Daytona was that he had been hit by 11 pitches. He wasn't afraid to stand in the box and take his base. He was afraid to not swing the bat, but that's another story. He's been hit 4 times in as many PA since he got to Daytona. It's almost like the pitchers with better control got promoted.

Baez is still just 20 years old and still has a lot of potential, but he's not the best prospect in the system anymore. Jorge Soler has taken that from him. Albert Almora may soon move ahead of him and if Dan Vogelbach's power returns, I'd put him above him too. Depending on how the rest of the season goes, it's also possible that the 1st round pick is ranked above him. We could see Baez fall down to 5th or even lower. If he doesn't improve the rest of the way, it will be lower.

I talked about this with Josh Vitters for years. You have to take walks. You have to take some. Vitters walk rate was quite low in the minors, but his walk rate is quite a bit higher than Baez's was. I'd be happy to see one improvement from him the rest of the year: patience. He has no chance to be a good MLB player walking as little as he does. He certainly has some power and could be a pinch hit specialist, but that's about it. He has to be more selective and if we see him improve at that, things suddenly look a lot better.

I guess the problem with that might be an even higher strikeout rate, which would seem difficult to do. If he's working deeper counts, he will strikeout more. Scary.

Honorable mention: Brett Jackson, Christian Villanueva

Brett Jackson's walk rate has declined 3 years in a row now. It stands at 8.7% through Wednesday. His strikeout rate has declined from over 33% to below 27%, but that's still bad. Along with the loss of strikeouts, though, his power has declined considerably. Jackson is capable of going on a tear and posting even better AAA numbers than a year ago, but he's quickly becoming an afterthought.

The Cubs working with him to cut down on his strikeouts by altering his mechanics is something I've always disliked. Sometimes it has great results, but it seems to me that more often it's the opposite. Brett Jackson was always a guy who struckout a lot and walked a lot. When he put the ball in play he'd hit it hard. He was productive. Very productive. What's wrong with that?

I understand it's the organizations obligation to help a player as much as possible, but sometimes I think they tinker too much. This might be an example because it seemed as soon as Dale Sveum talked about Jackson needing to make changes this time last year, shit got worse for Jackson. Maybe that's just a coincidence. I don't know.

Christian Villanueva's walk rate is back down to 7%, which is about what it was before the Cubs acquired him last year. His strikeout rate has jumped to 24% or more since joining the Cubs. He's reportedly quite gifted with the glove, but these numbers, along with a lack of power, aren't going to work at 3rd base.

The post Cubs Prospects on the Decline appeared first on Obstructed View.

Matt Garza’s final rehab start was a fantastic one. He threw 6 innings and allowed 4 hits and a run. He didn’t walk anybody and struckout 8. The question now is who is he going to replace in the Cubs rotation?

Brooks Raley threw the final 3 innings and allowed 2 hits and a walk while striking out 3.

The I-Cubs only had 5 hits and nobody had more than 1. Brent Lillibridge, Brian Bogusevic and Josh Vitters were each 1-3. Dave Sappelt was 1-4 and Donnie Murphy was 1-2.

Tennessee Smokies @ Jackson Generals

Matt Loosen is not having a very good time this year. In 4 innings tonight, he gave up 3 hits and walked 6 batters. He struckout 5 and allowed a home run, but somehow gave up only 4 runs. I guess that’s impressive. He’s been terrible in his 5 appearances this year.

AJ Morris had a very good night in relief. He threw 3 innings and didn’t allow any walks or hits. He struckout 3. Marcus Hatley pitched the 8th and allowed a hit. Frank Del Valle got his 5th save and struck a batter out.

The Smokies had 8 hits on the night. Arismendy Alcantara was 2-4 with a double and a strikeout. Ty Wright hit his first 2 home runs of the season for the Smokies. Jonathon Mota was 2-4 and so was Rafael Lopez. Lopez doubled.

Charlotte Stone Crabs 12 @ Daytona Cubs 7

PJ Francescon had about as shitty a start as you can have. In 5 innings he allowed 9 hits and 5 walks. He gave up 2 home runs. he allowed 10 runs. He’s had starts this year in which he’s given up 6 runs, 7 runs and now 10 runs. He’s made just 8 starts. He’s been kind of good in the others, but that’s not at all impressive.

Lefty Jeff Lorrick pitched 1.2 innings, allowed a hit and a walk. He gave up an unearned run. David Cates threw 1.1 innings, allowed a hit, walk and a run. He struck a batter out. Hunter Cervenka allowed a hit in an inning pitched.

Tim Saunders filled in at SS for Javier Baez who got the day off. Don’t worry. The Cubs got the same kind of offensive production out of him that they’ve gotten from Baez, except for the power part. Saunders continued to have a shitty season and was 0-5. I’m sure the only reason he hasn’t been demoted to Kane County is because he’d be on the bench behind another struggling 2nd baseman in Gioskar Amaya.

John Andreoli was in CF for the struggling Zeke DeVoss. He went 1-4 with a walk. Jorge Soler was 1-5.

Dustin Geiger was 3-5 with a double and a home run. In Chadd Krist’s 2nd game at Daytona, he was 3-3 with 2 doubles and 5 RBI.

Peoria Chiefs 0 @ Kane County Cougars (Game 1)

Cougars pitchers allowed only a hit in Game 1 of the double-header (7 innings). Bryan Smith went 4 innings, walked 2 and struckout 2. Eddie Orozco threw 2 innings, allowed the only hit and struck a batter out. Jeffry Antigua struck a batter out over an inning of work.

Pin-Chieh Chen was 2-3 with a walk. Gioskar Amaya and Marco Hernandez finally had good games. Each had 3 hits. Dan Vogelbach was 1-4 with a double and 2 strikeouts.

Following Myles write-up on Cubs prospects on the rise, Rock Shoulder’s inclusion on the list was rewarded with an 0-4, 4 strikeout performance.

Peoria Chiefs @ Kane County Cougars (Game 2)

This game is currently through 5 innings and all I’ve got two things I’m going to say about this game. Marco Hernandez hit his first home run of the season. The Cougars have committed 5 errors. 3 of them have been by Jeimer Candelario (now 11 on the season). That’s all.

UPDATE: The game is over and who really gives a shit who won because the Cougars made 6 errors. SIX ERRORS!

VSL Tigers 15 @ VSL Cubs 10

The VSL Cubs took 11 walks in today’s game. RF Ricardo Marcano was 1-3 with 3 walks.

The post JOT Minor League Recap 5-16-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.

Javier Baez 65
Jorge Soler 65
Dan Vogelbach 65
Albert Almora 60
Brett Jackson 60
Gioskar Amaya 55
Arismendy Alcantara 55
Arodys Vizcaino 55
Logan Watkins 50
Christian Villanueva 50
Junior Lake 50
Dillon Maples 50
Duane Underwood 50
Jeimer Candelario 45
Dave Sappelt 45
Marco Hernadez 45
Matt Szczur 45
Pierce Johnson 45
Paul Blackburn 45
Josh Vitters 40
Juan Paniagua 40

Starting this month, dmick89 and I are going to cover which prospect we think are rising and falling. We'll focus on 3 or 4 guys, and list any honorable mentions we might have. Keep in mind, this is only for actually prospects; Brian Bogusevic is tearing up AAA but that's not as important as Jorge Soler tearing up A+ ball.

Honorable Mention

Pierce Johnson: Pierce has flashed a nice (K-BB)/PA this season. I'm excited to see what he can do as he grows up and fills out (6-3/175); the strikeouts have always been there (10.75 K/9 junior year of college) and if he can add some to his frame he could project at the middle of a rotation.

Dan Vogelbach: It's slightly dicey to include Vogelbach here, because he's not at the same level he was last year. A line of .292/.363/.438 isn't that impressive, and I understand that. What is impressive, though, is that his walk rate has stayed relatively the same (11.1%) and his K rate has actually plummeted (12.4%). He's not being overmatched in the slightest, the hits just aren't falling in and his power has decreased for one reason or another. That power is going to return, have no doubt. When it does, his line is going to closely resemble the one he had last year.

Vogelbach has also more-or-less erased concerns about his ability to stick at 1B, and has even stolen 3 bases (I can't speak to the quality of those SBs, but they still exist). 

Bottom line is this: power fluctuates pretty wildly, and sometimes it takes a whole season to average out. I seriously doubt that Vogelbach is going to ISO in the middle 100s the rest of the year (he sits exactly at .150 right now). That's the only thing separating him this year from last – and the fact that he hasn't let that affect is PAs and actually improve on his walks is impressive, regardless of his slash line.

Logan Watkins: Watkins is ready to contribute at the MLB level, in my opinion. His line is deceiving at first (.236/.382/.398), but it's actually pretty impressive. He gets on base around 40% of the time, and his ISO is greater than Vogelbach's this year. There's nothing inherently wrong with that; his only issue would be his inability to effectively move runners (he doesn't put the ball in play very often). 

There's a stigma associated with low batting averages that sometimes obscure your valuation of a player, and with Watkins it's pretty telling. His power increases slightly every year, and he's reached base at the same high level throughout the majors; his batting average is depressed only because he takes so many walks (and the associated strikeouts from working deep in counts). Turn half of his walks into singles, and his line becomes .314/.382/.460, which looks a lot better but really isn't by much.

There's a concern that Logan might get outmatched at AAA but that concern is fading for me. He's showing enough power to make pitchers respect him, so I'm not worried about a Campana problem. He also has shown an ability to take a walk so he isn't going to face a Vitters problem. He works deep in counts, but I am afraid that his ability to do so won't be as strong because it's harder to make contact at this level in general, so he's not going to have as strong a chance to extend plate appearances.

#3

Kyle Hendricks: I really like Hendricks' game. He just doesn't issue free passes and doesn't give up home runs. Usually when you say that, you're looking at a groundball guy that doesn't strike many out. However, Hendricks has a little more swing-and-miss in his game than you're typical pitch-to-contact guy. This year, he's fanned 20.5% of his batters while walking 5.8%. That's a strong Joe Blanton comp; that sounds like an insult but it's not. Besides Blanton being unlucky, that's an indication that Hendricks' game can probably be slotted in for a #3-#4 spot if he keeps developing. I'm not saying Hendricks can stay at those peripherals in the majors (though that's not out of the realm of possibility), but if he does he's in some pretty nice company; Jered Weaver, Hiroki Kuroda, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, and Mike Minor all had similar K/9 and BB/9 ratios last year. 

When the Cubs finally traded Dempster last year, Christian Villanueva was considered the better prospect in the deal. I think we can put that idea to rest at this point. Hendricks could sniff the bottom of the top-10 in a redone list. I don't think his ceiling is very high but his floor is pretty high too. He also has the arsenal of pitches that could stand up in the majors (a 4 and 2 seam fastball, change, curve, slider, and a cutter that he toys with – he'll almost certainly drop a pitch or two that won't play up in the majors). 

One last thing: in his first start this year (April 7), Hendricks allowed a 3-run blast to Donald Lutz in the 5th inning. He hasn't allowed a home run since.

#2 

Rock Shoulders: His line is the strongest among all prospects in our system. He carries a .316/.401/.571 slash brought on by a 12.5% walk rate. He has 8 home runs and a mid-200s ISO. What's not to like?

Unfortunately, there are some warts to his game. He strikes out in roughly 1/4 of his plate appearances. It's really hard to be overly productive when you can't make good contact, and Shoulders doesn't. When he does make contact, they are falling in for hits almost 2/5 of the time. That's bound to decrease at some point, especially given Shoulders' "limited" speed. It's easier for hitters that are too advanced for a league to put up gaudy BABIP (the BABIP against me in A ball would be around .800 or so), but rest assured Shoulders isn't that caliber of hitter yet (at least not in the MLB).

On the plus side, Shoulders has played in left field. That's a major hurdle for him to clear if he wants to play on the Cubs; he's outclassed by Vogelbach in the minors and Rizzo isn't likely going anywhere (though a lot can happen in the 3 years until Shoulders *might* be ready to play in the big leagues. Until then, it'll be imperative for Shoulders to work on making himself a tougher out; I'd like to see that K% sit below 20% if at all possible. 

#1

Jorge Soler: How could it NOT be Soler? He's the proud owner of a .262/.345/.505 line in the pitcher-friendly FSL. He's 16th in the FSL in wOBA, and most of the players above him are much older or are also pretty formidable prospects. He had a rough week or so, but on the whole he's been everything you could expect and more. His walk rate is 10.9%, so a lot of my concerns about Soler's game (patience, acclimating to the minor leagues) have eroded. His OBP has dropped 50 points but his SLG has only dropped by about 10; both can be explained with a precipitous drop in BABIP. I'm not sure where his true rate might lie, but even if it settled where it is (.272) he'd be a productive player. It'd be nice to see what he can do mid-June during a promotion to AA. 

The only disappointment with Soler this year was his fight or whatever. I wasn't there and it sounds like it was very overstated from where it was first reported; still, not a shining moment for a new prospect. His strikeouts have also increased slightly over last year. That's to be expected when you climb your 3rd level in 2 years. 

There you have it. No one prospect really took a leap forward, but at least these half-dozen have acquitted themselves well. Look tomorrow for dmick's sister article!

The post Cubs Prospect Monthly Review: Rising May 2013 appeared first on Obstructed View.

Things didn’t fall apart for the Smokies until after starter Eric Jokisch left the game. He pitched 6.2 innings, allowed 7 hits and 2 runs. He walked a batter and struckout 5. Then Trey McNutt came in and pitched 0.2 innings. He gave up 2 hits and 2 runs. He was followed by Brian Schlitter who also pitched .2 innings. He allowed 3 hits and 4 runs.

Matt Szczur was 1-4 and was caught stealing for the 3rd time. Arismendy Alcantara was 2-3 and so was Jair Fernandez. Fernandez hit a home run and drew a walk. Rubi Silva, Christian Villanueva and Jonathon Mota each added a hit.

Charlotte Stone Crabs 7 @ Daytona Cubs 1

Austin Kirk has had a rough season. He threw 4 innings and gave up 7 hits and 6 runs. He walked 4 and struckout 4. To give you an idea how useless wins and losses for pitchers are, he’s thrown 38 innings this season, given up 46 hits and 24 runs on 7 home runs, 16 walks and 30 strikeouts. Despite being awful, he’s 4-2.

Luis Liria and Sheldon McDonald each threw 2 innings and both of them allowed 3 hits. Each of them struck a batter out. Frank Del Valle pitched the 9th and gave up 2 walks, 2 hits and a run. He struckout 2.

It was another terrible night at the plate for the Daytona Cubs. They had 5 hits and a walk as they scored only 1 run. John Andreoli was 1-3 with a walk. He was drafted in the 17th round in 2011 and turns 23 in June. He’s mostly played LF in his career and has a total of 1 home run. He has played some CF, which will be necessary for him to get to the big leagues. So far this year in 34 games, he’s hit .323/.412/.425. He’s also stolen 10 bases. He only has 8 extra base hits, though.

There were four Cubs who were 1-4: Javier Baez, Dustn Geiger, Ben Carhart and Chadd Krist. The Cubs had no extra base hits. Jorge Soler was 0-4 with 2 strikeouts.

Peoria Chiefs 0 @ Kane County Cougars 4

Taylor Scott and Nathan Dorris combined on a 3-hit shutout against the Chiefs. Scott threw 7.1 innings, allowed 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 2. Dorris pitched the final 1.2 innings and gave up a hit.

The 20-year old Taylor Scott has had a fine start to his 2013 season. The South African was picked in the 5th round of the 2011 draft out of Notre Dame Prep High. He’s not a guy who strikes many out. Last year at Boise he struckout 43 in 71.1 innings. This year he’s struckout 23 in 38.1 innings. He’s walked 15, allowed only 1 home run and given up 30 hits.

Pin-Chieh Chen and Rock Shoulders were each 1-3 with a walk. Shoulders struckout twice and Chen struckout once. Bijan Rademacher, Dan Vogelbach and Willson Contreras were each 2-4.

Jeimer Candelario was 1-4 with a strikeout. Gioskar Amaya was dropped to 8th in the order and went 0-2 with a strikeout. Marco Hernandez was 2-3.

VSL Cubs 7 @ VSL Phillies

I know next to nothing about the VSL team and probably won’t be writing much about them until later on. So check out the box score because I’m going to highlight maybe one person per game for awhile.

Amaldo Cabrera was 3-5 with 3 doubles.

The post JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-15-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.