Apparently, CF isn't as loaded as I thought (for my purposes, Soler is a RF, not a CF). There's at least one top 3-5 teamwide prospect in here, and a few ok-ish prospects as well, but it's not a surplus of value like I thought when I started.
| Last Year | 2013 | Career | |||||||||
| Name | Age | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | pwOBA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | |
| MLB | Campana | 27 | 0.264 | 0.308 | 0.299 | 0.273 | 0.274 | 0.262 | 0.306 | 0.300 | 0.272 |
| Jackson | 24 | 0.175 | 0.303 | 0.342 | 0.292 | 0.305 | 0.175 | 0.303 | 0.342 | 0.292 | |
| Byrd | 35 | 0.210 | 0.243 | 0.245 | 0.216 | 0.310 | 0.278 | 0.336 | 0.413 | 0.328 | |
| DeJesus | 33 | 0.263 | 0.350 | 0.403 | 0.332 | 0.330 | 0.281 | 0.355 | 0.419 | 0.341 | |
| AAA | Jackson | 24 | 0.256 | 0.338 | 0.479 | 0.354 | |||||
| AA | Ha | 22 | 0.272 | 0.352 | 0.385 | 0.346 | |||||
| Szczur | 23 | 0.210 | 0.285 | 0.357 | 0.299 | ||||||
| Silva | 24 | 0.263 | 0.277 | 0.413 | 0.311 | ||||||
| A+ | Szczur | 23 | 0.295 | 0.394 | 0.407 | 0.373 | |||||
| Silva | 24 | 0.302 | 0.322 | 0.412 | 0.333 | ||||||
| A | Easterling | 24 | 0.243 | 0.316 | 0.366 | 0.314 | |||||
| A- | Martin | 20 | 0.270 | 0.318 | 0.377 | 0.328 | |||||
| Almora | 19 | 0.292 | 0.292 | 0.446 | 0.339 | ||||||
| Rk | Almora | 19 | 0.347 | 0.363 | 0.480 | 0.380 | |||||
The average wOBA for a CF in 2012 was .323.
MLB
The Cubs had 5 players with over twenty starts at CF last year. 5! For some reason, I didn't include Joe Mather or Reed Johnson in this (who cares, really), and added Marlon Byrd because why not. He was terrible, and also on some sort of performance enhancing drug. One has to think what type of performance it was enhancing, because Byrdo was straight terrible last year. He's out of baseball, most likely. The starter at CF this year (and he logged the most starts on the Cubs at CF last year too; he was there most likely starter in both center AND right) is likely David DeJesus. He doesn't pass the eye test, defensively, but his "defensive metrics" point to an average-ish effort in any part of the outfield. He'll be a slightly-above average offering in center if he can hack it there, and should turn a nice profit at the trade deadline when the Cubs sell him off. I like DeJesus a lot, and he walked over 10% of the time last year, the first of his career. Tony Campana was seriously not good at baseball. He can't field even with his 80 speed, he has less power than you (and I mean you, dear reader) do on your beer league softball team, and he has poor plate discipline. That said, he has value as a pinch-runner on a team with a really good 4th OF. That isn't the Diamondbacks, but w/e. We got live humans for him, so I'm happy. I would have accepted dead humans, honestly. Brett Jackson has a retooled swing. Unless it cuts his strikeouts in half, I'm not terribly interested. That being said, there's still a place on the Cubs for a high-walk, high-strikeout, moderate-power CF that is a plus defensively. That's what Jackson could be without too much dreaming. If he could get his K's to just Adam Dunn levels (he's 7% away!), his line goes from .171/.303/.342 to like .200/.330/.370. On second thought, maybe he's got to get them lower than that….
AAA
No one. Seriously. The way it worked out, Jackson got to the majors, Campana got sent to Arizona, and Dave Sappelt was profiled in LF. Jim Adduci is gone, and Jeff Frazier played 1 game at CF for the ICubs last year. This is the first and last time you'll ever hear the collection a syllables coalesce as "Jeff Frazier" for the rest of your life.
AA
Jae-Hoon Ha is interesting, in a sense. He was thought of as a toolsy "developmental" prospect who never really developed…until last year. In 200 more PA than any other year, his walk rate went from 4.5% (his previous high, comically) to 9.5%. His ISO stayed the same, and his BABIP was relatively normal, but the result was a .273/.352/.385 line in AA at 21. Putting that into perspective, he's younger than Szczur is, but last year he performed well at a level Szczur barely reached (and struggled at). For good measure, he also walked at a higher rate than Szczur at AA. That's slightly disingenous considering Matt's track record and SSS at AA (158 PA), but if Szczur is a legit prospect (and I don't think he is) than Ha is at that level or better. Speaking of, Matt Szczur, the shine has rubbed off quite a bit. It's hard to get jazzed about a guy who is prospect-old at each level he gets to (and who doesn't completely dominate those leagues). He's got 10 pounds to grow into, and maybe that'll give him some power, but he needs to move up the ladder pretty fast if he wants to be thought of highly. Rubi Silva is a baseball player.
A+
Hate. Let me tell you how much I've come to hate you since I began to live. There are 387.44 million miles of printed circuits in wafer thin layers that fill my complex. If the word 'hate' was engraved on each nanoangstrom of those hundreds of miles it would not equal one one-billionth of the hate I feel for humans at this micro-instant. For you. Hate. Hate.
Also, there are no prospects at A+ because they either moved to AA or are Elieser Bonne (so, no.)
A
Taiwan Easterling was one of the oldest players on his team last year, but he still couldn't hack league-average. He's still young to the system (college senior; he was actually drafted in the 6th round in 2007), but his frame isn't projectable and he's been nothing but overwhelmed so far. His time is short.
A-
Darien "Trey" Martin angered me when I couldn't find him in fangraphs. He's been a nice little player so far. He did OK last year (crushed rookie league, was ok-ish at A-), though plate discipline is already a minor concern. Martin has a nice frame and can grow into some power (and out of center, possibly) and will still be 20 this year. He'd start at A if it wasn't for Albert Almora, who did everything he was supposed to last year. At 145 PA, I'm not going crazy for anything just yet, but he did very well in his first taste of professionals. Sure, his walk rate was incredibly bad. However, look at his K rate too; he wasn't overmatched, he was just too good for the league. He made contact with everything he swung at, and that contact was for the most part loud. Almora is plenty far away but could climb the ladder quickly until he reaches a level that he has to work at.
Rk
I am a happy camper so I guess I'm doing something right. Happiness is like a butterfly; the more you chase it, the more it will elude you; but, if you turn your attention to other things, it will come and sit softly on your shoulder.
Albert Almora was here.
There's definitely some talent here. The Cubs have one potential superstar in Almora, and 3 people or so with a shot at contributing in the majors (Jackson, Ha, Szczur). Let's hope Jackson can take over for DeJesus after he's traded, because CF are pretty damn expensive.
Projected Rosters:
MLB: DeJesus
AAA: Jackson/Ha
AA: Szczur/Silva
A+: Easterling
A: Almora
A-: Martin
Comments
Don’t worry, there’s still the Mets. I’m still (dying laughing) that the Mets two highest paid outfielders are Jason Bay and Bobby Bonilla, who hasn’t played for the team in over a decade (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
Seriously? The Mets are still paying Bobby Bonilla? Or is this tongue in cheek?
Oh, I’m afraid you are seriously overestimating my power. Even Josh laughs at it.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
In 2000 the Mets bought out Bonilla’s last year of $5.9M by promising to pay him something like $1.2M for 20 years starting a decade later. They thought they were going to score big with Madoff in the short run. They’re also still paying Brett Saberhagen something like $250k per year for another decade or something like that.
GBTSQuote Reply
Fuckin’ Madoff, bro.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Considering some of the stories you hear about how pro players manage their money, this seems like a good deal to me….
SVBQuote Reply
So I have a problem…
In some contest I won here last year, possibly best commenter award, I forget, I won a t-shirt and asked for a onesie instead in hope that I would need it one day. I chose the “Amusing, but wrong” onesie. Well now it looks like I’ll need another.
Which one should I choose?
http://www.cafepress.com/obstructedview
I was thinking the “1908 is a recent championship I enjoyed” or the “Nice snark” one. Thoughts?
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Is that like having two children at once?
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I guess they can both come out at once or one comes out some amount of time before the other. It could go either way.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
For your wife’s sake I hope they decide to take turns. Congrats. Also, I think you can’t go wrong with generic Cubbie facepalm.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
WaLi wrote:
I’ve always been partial to
Trade a bunch of prospects
It just might work
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Would that be read as trading his children, though?
GBTSQuote Reply
You CHI fans in need of LBs should check out UNC’s Kevin Reddick, Southern Miss’ Jamie Collins and UConn’s Sio Moore. All looked pretty good yesterday in drills.
RynoQuote Reply
I honestly have no idea if this is real or fake.
http://blogs.tcpalm.com/off_the_beat_will_greenlee_blog/2013/02/a-man-accused-of-throwing.html
MishQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
For my sake too.
I like the facepalm more than the sign as well. I may end up going with that.
WaLiQuote Reply
Isn’t Jae Hoon Ha expected to move to right?
Congrats wali.
dmick89Quote Reply
IoI.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno, you think Te’o’s 40 time will drop him? Or was his stock starting to drop already?
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
ILBs are kind of like the RBs of defense. Positionally, they’re undervalued. Every year there’s an ILB that everyone thinks is going in the top 15, and every year that ILB drops to the early 2nd.
So whenever you hear someone talking about an ILB going top 10, just roll your eyes. Even at his peak value, Te’o was a late first at best.
His 40 definitely didn’t help him, but what really hurts him is how stiff he looked in drills, imo.
And I still like Minter as the top ILB…even at his size.
RynoQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Doing some research on it, that might be the case. He started 20 games there last year (over 80 in center), but I’m not sure when those starts came. If he moves to RF, his value pretty much falls off a cliff.
MylesQuote Reply
ZOMG! Tyrann Mathieu is looking good at the combine!
Do these people forget how dynamic a player he was 12 months ago? It’s not like he was sitting on his ass last year.
I was hoping SF took a flyer on him in the 4th, but they might have to use an earlier pick if teams don’t care about his issues. I don’t know that he’s an every-down player, but he’s a premium nickel CB and PR/KR, imo.
RynoQuote Reply
I’m reading this book called “Baseball by the Numbers” that you jerks recommended and it’s all like “Barry Bonds is good” and “Win/loss record isn’t a good measure of pitcher performance.”
The fuck!?
joshQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
What about the 4 reps though? That’s got to be a concern, no? Physical WRs are going to eat him alive.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
Not afraid of his 4 reps on the bench press?
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
I’m surprised no one mentioned the four reps on bench in response to my Mathieu comment…
Yes, that is a pathetic showing on bench…even for someone his size. But I don’t think that will affect his perceived value. Anyone who expected him to be an every down CB wasn’t paying attention two years ago. At best, I think he’s a third CB and return specialist, but he is a turnover machine and that’s hard to teach.
Basically, I think Mathieu will make enough impact on third and fourth down initially to justify using a 4 on him. And I’d bet a 3 on him becoming a four down player. If not for the off-field stuff, I might even bet No. 31 overall.
RynoQuote Reply
josh wrote:
I hope you don’t think that A-Rod was worth his contract or you are in for a NASTY surprise
MylesQuote Reply
Interesting stuff regarding 2013 high school draftees and age at draft time.
in light of Jazayerli’s awesome study and Cubs 2nd overall pick.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/2/26/4013322/2013-mlb-draft-draft-age-of-high-school-prospects
8volumesthickQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I think that would be fun to put to a pole. My guess is that exactly 0% of baseball fans believe A-Rod was worth his contract.
Hilariously, at one point in this book, they compare a player as being about as good as Andre Dawson (and thus not HOF worthy).
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Pole?
Poll.
joshQuote Reply
@ Mish:
“This flying burrito is not to be confused with The Flying Burrito Brothers, the influential country rock group whose debut album, “The Gilded Palace Of Sin,” was released in 1969.”
5 Run Home RunQuote Reply
This must have been uncomfortable for you, Josh
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
Stupid Hawk…
RynoQuote Reply
Ah, I see…
RynoQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
Maybe he was trying to get into the country from Mexico and didn’t have his passport?
/Shameless reference
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
That’s exactly what Landry looks like.
RynoQuote Reply
http://www.sbnation.com/2013/2/23/4022182/john-wetzel-40-gif-nfl-combine
RynoQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/26/there-is-now-an-amway-store-in-citi-field-seriously/
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
I like the irony of the “1908” slogan on a newborn. Guess with twins you don’t have to worry about them being too big for the small onesies.
Congrats. Wish my kid would have been twins. It would have resolved a lot of other issues later…
BVS still at workQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Do you think there is some problem here? Just like what happens to scalped tickets, no?
BVS still at workQuote Reply
valbeuna on pace to post 2.750 OPS – greatest player of all time or just top 3?
/rant’ed.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
loria sucks
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Wife decided she liked that one the best. You win!
@ BVS still at work:
Yeah we are excited about them. They cost a lot of heartache and money (miscarriages, surgeries, IVF) so we are glad we are getting two.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Loria does seem like a douche. This part stuck out though:
Aren’t the Rickett’s trying to do something similar to this?
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-01-31/sports/chi-cubs-marketing-chief-hayward-20130131_1_hayward-cubs-chairman-tom-ricketts-joint-venture
Basically Ricketts and Hayward are forming a company and the Cubs will be a client.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
i’m not sure if “joint venture” specifically means that rickets will get a piece of hayward’s company’s profit. it probably does though. so yeah, it looks like they’re doing the same thing. i wonder how rare it is for owners of companies to pay themselves consulting fees. i guess it’s probably pretty common.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Probably just a legal loophole-ish way to “launder” money as it cycles within the various entities and corps etc. held by the principal owner. I am hoping that the difference is that Loria is evil and Ricketts is not.
“Evil” being a completely subjective term, mind you.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
I don’t know what the Marlins’ ownership looks like in terms of percentages, but if I’m not mistaken the Ricketts family essentially own 100% of the Cubs (I think the Tribune still has a minute interest, IIRC). There’s really no shenanigans to be had when you’re only financially accountable to yourself. If anything, I would expect this is a clever way to divert money away from Todd so he stops blowing his money on action figures.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I’m talking in terms of channeling profits to yourself at the expense of others, not talking about potential IRS shenanigans.
GBTSQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/projections/2013-cubs-projections-starlin-castro.html
dmick89Quote Reply
The next time I read a weblog, I hope that it doesnt disappoint me as much as this one. I mean, I know it was my option to read, but I basically thought youd have some thing intriguing to say. All I hear is usually a bunch of whining about some thing that you could fix should you werent too busy searching for attention.
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