It's the second annual (holy shit, I've been blogging over a year) installment of Assume the Position! I don't plan on making many changes since last year, though I imagine I'll have to edit these a bit as the last few signings or so trickle in. The one thing I will do is just remove the players that aren't on the team this year (sometimes there were people that got in for some reason), and I'll had the relevant signings at the level I project them to break the team with. There are a LOT of NRI types that probably won't be in the organization when the season begins.
| Last Year | 2014 | Career | ||||||||||
| Name | Age | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Oliver wOBA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | ||
| MLB | Castillo | 27 | .274 | .349 | .397 | .331 | .326 | .269 | .341 | .407 | .329 | |
| Kottaras | 31 | .180 | .349 | .370 | .324 | .333 | .214 | .324 | .406 | .322 | ||
| AAA | Whiteside | 35 | .187 | .242 | .280 | .240 | .230 | .215 | .273 | .335 | .268 | |
| John Baker | 33 | .203 | .294 | .301 | .310 | .265 | .258 | .342 | .364 | .313 | ||
| Flores | 26 | .204 | .295 | .325 | .288 | .274 | ||||||
| AA | Lopez | 25 | .247 | .350 | .392 | .344 | .280 | |||||
| Noble | 26 | .232 | .288 | .295 | .270 | |||||||
| A+ | Krist | 23 | .253 | .351 | .382 | .345 | .284 | |||||
| Cabezas | 25 | .237 | .302 | .278 | .278 | .240 | ||||||
| A | Contreras | 21 | .248 | .328 | .423 | .341 | .280 | |||||
| Escobar | 22 | .237 | .293 | .387 | .312 | .266 | ||||||
| A- | Rymel | 23 | .253 | .337 | .315 | .321 | ||||||
| Brockmeyer | 23 | .271 | .355 | .336 | .341 | |||||||
| Marra | 20 | .224 | .313 | .482 | .375 | .291 | ||||||
| Rk | Petit | 21 | .209 | .253 | .233 | .239 | .209 | |||||
| Castillo | 21 | .265 | .280 | .367 | .302 | |||||||
| Mineo | 18 | .222 | .300 | .278 | .287 | |||||||
The MLB average wOBA for a catcher last year was .312.
MLB
Welington Castillo was great last year. He's quietly blossoming into a middle-of-the-order threat with the stick, and framing issues aside he's an average defensive catcher, maybe a tick above it. It's always a when, not if, for catchers to start moving off the position, but Castillo could easily spell Rizzo against lefties at 1B and let the very capable George Kottaras handle catching duties. Kottaras bats lefty, so that scenario isn't exactly flattering, but I imagine that protecting Castillo at the cost of exposing the Greek is a trade-off the Cubs will gladly make. I like Kottaras a good deal; he probably won't match Navarro's 2013 production, but a capable OBP in the mid 3's is more than fine with me.
AAA
Eli Whiteside and John Baker are the next guys up in case of injury/trade. They are both in the midnight of their careers, though once upon another time John Baker was quite useful. I hope to see neither of them in the majors this season. If Luis Flores is even on the team next year (I'm not sure, haven't heard anything – he's a 6-year minor league FA), he'd presumably go back to AAA, but he's got age on his side and absolutely nothing else.
AA
Rafael Lopez had a nice season in 2013, slashing .247/.350/.392 as a 25 year old. That's a very acceptable line, and hopefully good enough to merit a promotion to starting at Iowa next season. The Cubs like him and extended the NRI this season. Chad Noble followed a putrid 2012 with a similarly pungent 2013. I'm sure he's a very nice person.
A+
Chadd Krist, he of the 65 porn name tool, absolutely mashed in Daytona this year (.253/.351/.382). He'll look to grab the starts in Tennessee next season, and hopefully he keeps up that walk rate. Yaniel Cabezas was Chad Noble with less power.
A
Willson Contreras is a relatively exciting prospect. He's just 21, and he hit .248/.328/.423 in A ball last year. That's encouraging. He has 47% CS in 2012 and I said it was unsustainable; it was, and he nabbed 30% of would-be basestealers last year. He saw a little time at 1B and RF last season; I'm not sure if that's moving him off the position or just getting him in the lineup because the Cubs also like Carlos Escobar a good deal. Escobar was a 15th round pick in 2012 but backslid last season. He isn't great defensively and is likely to be left behind in this competition. He's also older than Contreras.
A-
Lance Rymel's BABIP turned around and so did his fortunes. He was about league-average last year with the bat, but he's so old (24 this season) that he's got to move up or move out. Another 2012 draftee, his leash will be fairly long and I imagine he'll time-share with Contreras, but the clock is definitely ticking. Cael Brockmeyer was drafted in the 16th round last year and went immediately to Boise (he even saw to starts at Iowa in an emergency situation). He did well enough in Boise to merit a good amount of starts there next season, but he didn't have any power. At Cal-Bakersfield, he had a .450 slugging percentage, so hopefully 2014 brings a re-emergence in that aspect. In any case, he's a relatively patient hitter that doesn't strikeout all that often. I inordinately like Justin Marra a whole lot, and he did little to change that perception in 2013. He fought through a little injury, but came back and hit .224/.313/.482 in 96 PA at Boise last year. The 21-year old Canadian will probably be the primary DH in Kane County next year (at least I hope so).
Rk
Wilfredo Petit is a 4-year veteran of the Cubs organization but is just 21 now. He's never been even vaguely interesting with the bat, so I'm willing to just move on. Erick Castillo had 50 PA for the Cubs last year so that's basically worthless as well. Alberto Mineo had even less PA (60) than last year (62). The real person here is Tyler Alamo, the overslot 24th rounder from 2013. It was expected that he'd cost more than the $100,000 the Cubs ended giving to Tyler, but here we are. Alamo is a physical beast, an imposing 6'4" and 200 lbs. That's way too tall to imagine him playing catcher for all that long, so the bat will have to come. Alamo is only 19 and will likely split time between rookie league and Boise.
Comments
Myles NSed me, but I’m still really interested in your opinions on this:
Pay Kaepernick or draft a replacement?
Like You CareQuote Reply
Pay the man.
MylesQuote Reply
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jUBbCgMWmE
MylesQuote Reply
dmick89, Sweatpants Guru wrote:
Yeah, I guess if we’re counting the time from when the first rebuild-assets were acquired, then that’s fair. Although all the Cubs really did in mid-2011 was to not piss away the entire draft like they usually did (dying laughing).
I still think that we should either be giving Thoyer credit for getting this far in three years or blame Ricketts for not getting farther in five though. Probably both. You shouldn’t be able to claim you rebuilt in 4.5 years instead of 6 just because you slept through the first 1.5 years of when you should have been rebuilding (dying laughing).
fang2415Quote Reply
@ Myles:
Would you pay $16-17 million for what he is now or what he could be in the next few years?
Like You CareQuote Reply
Like You Care wrote:
I think he’s worth around that now, and probably will get a little bit better in the future. I’m not fully aware of the contract situation, but you can win a Super Bowl with Kaepernick and there are some teams that just fold to his skillset.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Iono. He has the potential to be an elite QB next year, but I feel like you can get 85% of what he is now for 5% of the cost in Jimmy Garroppolo.
He took a lot of blame for the NFCCG, but he nearly singlehandedly scored enough points to win the game. If SF wants to win the NFC West, they might have to pay.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
I’d say pay him too, he should be good for the next few years and he certainly has plenty of talent around him. What big names is SF expected to lose to FA/cuts?
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospectQuote Reply
I can’t decide if I hate signing day or the LLWS more as a media-driven ‘event’
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospectQuote Reply
Ryno, I think the question to ask is can he get better? He’s had about a year and a half as a starter. He has a really good offensive line, an aging RB (but with some nice young RBs behind him), decent WRs and a great TE. He has one of, if not the best, defenses in football. He is in the perfect situation for a young developing QB. His athleticism is second to none and at some point he’s going to need to be able to make those throws he’s missing now.
That being said, do the 49ers really need to spend $17 milliion a year on a QB? That team was good enough to get to 3 straight NFC championshps with Kaep and Alex Smith. And if there are guys out there who are good enough to supplant him now, at a fraction of the cost, isn’t that the smarter play and spend that money elsewhere?
MuckerQuote Reply
Can’t coach athleticism right? But you can coach reads and decision making. After only 1.5 yr Kaep seems to be improving on the latter. That he turned down Cubs for the 49ers suggests he has good decision making process. Keep him.
BVS, my dad drank HammsQuote Reply
@ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:
We’ll shed Carlos Rogers’ salary, which will help. We’ll restructure a few.
The main issue is that Aldon Smith will be due a big contract pretty soon. His and Kaepernick’s contracts will tie up a lot of cap space. I suppose they’ll manage, but it’s mostly a value thing with me.
Like You CareQuote Reply
fang2415 wrote:
I give them credit for a much better farm system. I’m not entirely convinced the Cubs are in better shape than they were a few years ago. I am certain they are in better shape to contend for a longer period of time while maintaining a smaller payroll. I’m not convinced that’s better.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
Mucker wrote:
He reminds me of John Elway. That arm strength and athleticism. Elway was a better QB at this point, but I feel like the potential is similar. He can definitely improve, but I also feel like SF took it easy on him (limited-read plays, boots with high-low, etc.)
Mucker wrote:
And that’s the crux for me. He’s relatively raw, but he’s been playing QB a long time.
If he can start making those throws or stop attempting the throws he can’t make (become more self aware), he’s worth what he’ll ask for.
Mucker wrote:
And this is how I rationalize not having to make that call. It’s impossible to tell if Kaepernick will improve his only major deficiency at the moment, so I hide behind cost/production.
You mentioned the running game and OLine, but where were they against SEA a few weeks ago? Without Kaepernick, SF gets blown out. That wasn’t the first time SF had trouble running, either.
So there I go back to square one. I think they should pay him because they draft well enough to turn the roster over as needed. One mistake, though, and they’re fucked. There’s no margin for error in that division.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ BVS, my dad drank Hamms:
Believe me, I’ve considered him spurning CHC as a pro (dying laughing).
Like You CareQuote Reply
Koyie Hill —–> Nationals
There go the Cubs chances at a World Series.
JimLQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
I think there’s no question on his potential and at this point, that’s what the 49ers are going to pay for because he hasn’t really reached it yet. I think if the 49ers can continue to keep a strong team around him and not expect him to carry the team through a rebuild, then the 49ers should be good for the next decade and that should help Kaep reach his potential. But how long do the 49ers wait? They don’t have to extend him just yet but it’ll probably be cheaper to do it now. Do they wait to see if he turns that corner they want him to in 2014 and then sign him kind of like the Bears did with Cutler?
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
If they wait, he’ll be a UFA. That might be a bigger gamble.
He’s said he understands that a large contract could hamstring the team. If I were SF, I’d put that to the test. I’d tell him Tom Brady made a similar statement a few years ago and restructured his deal to average $11.4 million per year. Similar statement, similar deal.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ JimL:
With Hill in Washington, and Henry Blanco/Blake Lalli both on Arizona’s Non-Roster Invite list, the Cubs are screwed.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
Yeah, that’s true.
There are a lot of talented players on that 49ers roster who will be looking for paydays. What’s the contract status of Willis, Smith and Bowman? If he really understands that and is willing to give a hometown discount, then that should make the decision easy for the 49ers. But if he wants to go all Joe Flacco on them, I would tell him to fuck off. (easy for me to say)
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
I’m pretty sure Iupati, Crabtree, Aldon Smith and Kaepernick are the players in line to receive a significant pay increase within the next year or so.
Cutting Carlos Rogers will go a long way toward bringing some of these guys back, plus SF is about $6 million under the cap.
They must keep Aldon Smith. He’s an elite talent.
They should bring Iupati and Crabtree back, but only if the price is right. It might come down to keeping two of Kaepernick, Iupati and Crabtree.
Like You CareQuote Reply
Time to revisit this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fi_ly7HTSzk
(dying laughing)
Like You CareQuote Reply
Like You Care wrote:
I’d feel a lot more comfortable finding an impact WR in the draft than a QB/OL, FWIW
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospectQuote Reply
@ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:
Well that’s because you’re a GB fan. (dying laughing)
SF finds lineman like GB finds WRs but has trouble with WRs like GB does linemen. I don’t know that I’d call Crabtree mediocre, but the gap between him and the elite WRs is larger than the one between him and the mediocre, imo.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
Like, I’m right here dude.
George KotarrasQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
@ George Kotarras:
¡Y yo tambien!
Rafael LopezQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
@ Rafael Lopez:
Me too, eh.
Justin MarraQuote Reply
Viva La Revolucion!
Yaniel CabezasQuote Reply
Freddie Freeman —> 8/$135.
How fucking good does that 7/$41 for Rizzo look.
GBTSQuote Reply
Player A: 38 HR, .251/.330/.435, 107 OPS+, 4.9 bWAR
Player B: 44 HR, .271/.343/.452, 114 OPS+, 4.0 bWAR
One of those is Freddie Freeman’s first two seasons as the Braves 1B (1255 PA). The other is Anthony Rizzo’s first two seasons as the Cubs 1B (1058 PA).
GBTSQuote Reply
The Cubs look pretty good in the catcher position. I can’t wait to see whether their other positions are equally strong!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Yaniel Cabezas:
Check my similarity scores on B-Ref. Mike DEFELICE, Baby.
Take that, F***faces.
John BakerQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
I was about to make fun of Ryan Flaherty, but it turns out he was actually worth about 1 win for the Orioles last year in only 271 PA, with a .259 BABIP.
Thoyer should hire MB
fang2415Quote Reply
This is not what I was expecting.
AlvinQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Freeman has more service time and is coming off a fantastic season.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
I wonder, who would people here rather have given what we know about them (performance, salary, etc.)? I think Freeman is going to be a lot better than Rizzo, but so much better that he’s worth that much more money? I don’t know.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/02/05/cubs-unlikely-to-land-korean-righty-suk-min-yoon/
GWQuote Reply
Can someone smarter than me run Rizzo’s 2013 slash numbers if he had a .371 BABIP instead of .258? They hit the same number of homers and Rizzo had a higher ISO and BB% than Freeman.
GBTSQuote Reply
2013 Freeman: 23 HR, .181 ISO, 10.5 BB%, 19.2 K%, .371 BABIP
2013 Rizzo: 23 HR, .186 ISO, 11.0 BB%, 18.4 K%, .258 BABIP
Both are 24 years old. One is owed slightly under $100M than the other.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
That comes out to .999/!!!/∞
fang2415Quote Reply
It depends on how good you think Rizzo is. I expect him to be average from this point forward or thereabouts. I’m not expecting any kind of breakout from him and I don’t see the potential in him that is clearly there with Freeman.
That said, you could probably make up the difference in another players, but obviously you’d rather have just the one. I don’t know. It’s not an easy decision in my opinion picking between those two contracts.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
I don’t know if I really like either player on long term deals. I’d take Rizzo since he’s cheaper, but I almost wish the Cubs would have just kept going year to year with him.
EdwinQuote Reply
Nevermind.
Freeman 2013 R+RBI: 198
Rizzo 2013 R+RBI: 151
GBTSQuote Reply
Player A, 1771 MiLB PA: .303/.364/.474 7% BB-rate, 14% K-rate
Player B, 1913 MiLB PA: .303/.372/.542 9% BB-Rate, 20% K-rate
Which is Freeman, which is Rizzo?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
2014 Zips:
Rizzo: .255/.336/.464 wOBA: .343
Freeman: .286/.365/.477 wOBA: .361
GWQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/02/06/cubs-darwin-barney-avoid-arbitration-for-2-3-million/
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
In fairness, Freeman was a year ahead of him, age-wise, and Rizzo gets a pretty big bump from the PCL vs. IL difference.
GWQuote Reply
Is Rizzo really worth $100M less than Freeman? The answer is no. Rizzo plus his contract are a much better value. Rizzo has the potential to provide surplus value and out perform his contract without much projection.
srbutch5Quote Reply
Did Pecota stop doing player comps, or am I just not seeing it?
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospectQuote Reply
Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect wrote:
The annual has comps, and I think the depth charts have 3 comps as well.
MylesQuote Reply
@ GW:
I’ve stopped believing the “PCL turns everyone into a slugger” mantra. Sure there’s a boost, but I don’t think it’s nearly as significant as people make it out to be. It’s become the Keyser Soze of the stat game, IMHO. And their career MLB lines aren’t vastly different, anyway. I think Freeman is a tick better, but he isn’t even close to $94M better.
srbutch5 wrote:
My sentiments, exactly. Rizzo may not be a better player, but he represents a better value.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
I think Freeman is quite a bit better actually and I’d probably prefer Rizzo given the contracts. I just think it’s closer than other people do.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
The Braves should have been more proactive in signing him to a long-term contract prior to this offseason.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I haven’t written up my AAA run environments post yet because I don’t have the technical skills needed to acquire the data to make it a worthwhile exercise. (If someone is proficient enough to write code that spiders box-score data and wants to help, please let me know). The answer, though, as far as I can tell, is that it can make a huge difference, especially if a player is out west (as Rizzo was with the Pads).
On Rizzo v Freeman. Yes, I think that Rizzo is the better value. Most of us, I think, won’t be content with that in the long run. If Rizzo is consistently a 2-2.5 WAR player, that will be disappointing to me, regardless of whether he gets paid minimum wage. The Cubs need someone to hit, and it doesn’t look like that’s going to come in free agency. At least not for a while…
GWQuote Reply
The one thing that I wish I understood better is the rigidity of assets in baseball. It’s entirely possible (and almost certain) that Rizzo is a better value, but Freeman might be a better choice for a baseball team because it’s such an imperfect exercise actually leveraging that value. Say that Freeman makes $10 million a year more than Rizzo but only provides $7 milion a year more in production. Sure, you’re saving $3 million a year, but you still have to get convert that extra $10 million into production somewhere. There are a finite number of free agents that may or may not fit on your team, and trades aren’t something you can rely on.
I’d rather have Rizzo’s contract than Freeman’s all things considered, but I might feel differently if I was a Braves fan. I don’t know.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
well said
GWQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Good points. What’s the point of value if you can’t spend that money somewhere?
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi wrote:
Faget points
Old Grumpy ManQuote Reply
WaLi wrote:
You could always spend it on fancy new signage in your outfield.
GBTSQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
You could always spend it on lawyers to litigate with people who have almost no legal grounds to oppose your fancy new signage in your outfield.
fixed
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ GW:
I’m anxious to see that post. My main objection to this little truism is that it’s just used to dismiss whole sets of numbers, because PCL. It’s become a crutch for people who have no other reason to be down on a player, so they can just wave his numbers away by invoking the PCL. My feeling is, if there is an effect, it can be measured. If it can be measured, it can be quantified. If it can be quantified, it can be weighted for. If it can be weighted for, then we’ll have better discussions of what minor league numbers mean, and maybe even better projections for MiLB’ers who get get serious PA in the PCL. But until that work is done, I think you have to take the numbers for what they are. And FWIW, only 697 of Rizzo’s 1913 MiLB came in the PCL. They were the best seasons of his MiLB career, to be sure. But simply chalking that up to league difference seems to me like lazy reasoning.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Guys, it’s okay.
I went to the comments section at BN and they told me Vogelbach is going to hit 60HR every season from 2015 on. So this argument is a moot point.
AkabariQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I guess you could construe it as lazy, though I would disagree with that characterization. Freeman split his 19-year old season at A+/AA, while Rizzo was at A/A+. Then at 20 it was AAA/MLB vs A+/AA, respectively. That year makes a big difference. The run environments also have to be considered. How much? I’m not sure, and it would be difficult to say with any precision given the changing character of leagues from year-to-year. Also, some hitters can better leverage parks to their advantage (which is what Keith Law specifically said that Rizzo was doing with the Pads- swinging to get fly balls up into the air- and had improved at Iowa). There are likely some nonlinearities there.
Can it be estimated better? Probably. I hope to try a few things in that regard. But just making note of these things when comparing slash lines is going to be better than using the slashes alone.
GWQuote Reply
new shit:
http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/2014-mlb-draft-jeff-hoffman-and-pitching-at-the-top.html
GWQuote Reply