Loading ...Poll: What will Anthony Rizzo’s wOBA be this season?
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14 Responses to “Poll: What will Anthony Rizzo’s wOBA be this season?”
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I voted, but I don’t really have a good sense of wOBA as a raw number yet, so I’m not sure what is good/bad/average.
@ josh:
It’s scaled to OBP. So if you can think on those scales, you can think on wOBA scales.
here’s the 23-and-unders 100+ PA for the last five seasons sorted by wOBA.
i’m going to guess Rizzo to come in around the average of this group (even though his earlier cuppa is at the bottom).
Some of you people are nuts. .400 or higher? I’d be thrilled if he’s that good in a few years, but right now? Aramis Ramirez was a damn good hitter and he never went over .400. And that was in 2004 when there was a lot more offense. Among Cubs players with at least 300 PA in a season only Derrek Lee (2005, 2009) and Sammy Sosa (2000, 2001, 2002) have hit for a .400 wOBA or higher since 2000. Sosa did it in 1998 and 1999 also. You have to go back to 1993 to find a non-Sosa or non-Lee Cub to hit .400 or higher with only 300 PA in a season (Rick Wilkins hit exactly .400). In 1990 Ryne Sandberg hit .400. Davey Lopes hit .400 in 1985. That’s it since 1980. You have this list of Cubs hitters with 300 PA or more who hit greater than .400 in a season.
Sammy Sosa did it 5 times
Derrek Lee did it twice
That’s it. Since 1980.
Sandberg, Lopes and Wilkins each hit .400.
I can understand being excited, but .400 wOBA excited?
@ gaius marius:
I went with .320-.329 and based on that list perhaps I was a little optimistic. Anything over .330 has to be considered wildly successful. Hopefully the expectations come down like they did for Castro. Some Cubs fans though he was going to have a wOBA of .360 or so right off the bat.
Going back to 2001 and increasing it to 250 PA, you get this list: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=250&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2001&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=14,23&players=0
Nobody over .400. Highest was James Loney at .386 and then Prince Fielder at .383.
Basically, some people are expecting Rizzo to be Frank Thomas: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=250&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=1980&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=14,23&players=0
@ mb21:
MB: did you ask me for my opinion, or did you just wanted to say what you wanted to say and didn’t really care if I would disagree with your position? Just tell me that you don’t care about my opinion then, so I won’t bother to answer you in the future.
@ shawndgoldman:
So my .380-.390 guess was wildly optimistic. On the other hand, why the fuck not?
I guessed .330 to .339 because I figured the power would offset some of the on-base issues.
I guessed .340-.349 because I figure/hope he’ll be better than Chris Davis and at least as good as Ike Davis. I figure that’s as good of a way to guess as regression…
@ WaLi22:
Of course I care about your opinion. That’s why I asked the question. Saying those who are most optimistic are nuts doesn’t mean I don’t value the input. If someone had said this offseason that I’m nuts as far as my optimism for Brett Jackson I’d have agreed.
mb21 wrote:
So, nuts is not a compliment? Dammit, they are so healthy, like almonds and walnuts are good for you and stuff. Well, at least no one has ever accused me of being sane.
I said .400 as a joke. I assumed that everyone would have answered in a silly fashion based on all the Rizzo jokes lately. More logically probably like .335 would be my guess.