An analysis of the Jorge Soler deal: I guess it's worth it after all

In Commentary And Analysis by Obstructed View Staff102 Comments

Despite all of my grumbling about the rumored pricetag for Jorge Soler, I was ecstatic when the initial reports today said that the Cubs had signed him to a 9/30 contract. Then we discovered that whenever he has enough service time to be elgible for arbitration, he can opt out of the deal and go through the usual arbitration process to get a higher salary. After thinking on this for a bit it made me less and less enamored of the deal. Absent lower order terms, the Cubs basically gave Soler a $30m signing bonus, with the added benefit to the player that if he disappoints he'll get cost certainty during those arb years. The Cubs would probably have had him under team control for nine years anyway if this was a signing bonus situation.

Aside from the risk inherent in any prospect, cost control is important. At what point would that money better be invested somewhere else? Yes, the Cubs can afford it and we've been beating the drum for years that the Cubs should flex their financial muscles on the international FA market to use their advantage against other MLB teams. That was pretty much Thoyer's gameplan when they found themselves blindsided by the new CBA. But just because a team can afford it doesn't mean it's a good idea. The Cubs could also afford building solid gold urinal troughs, or signing Josh Hamilton to a $500m contract, which would also be a big upgrade to the roster and Wrigley Experience™ that costs nothing but money. It doesn't mean it's a good idea. Was my intuition wrong though? What would be the breakeven point to sign him?

The consensus among scouts seems to be that Soler is a top-5 talent if he were in the draft. This year's draft was a relatively mediocre one, but there have been numerous studies about expected value of draft picks. I'm going to go with Sky Andrecheck's study from two years ago, not necessarily because it's the best (I have no idea) but because it's the first one I found and I don't have a BP subscription anymore. If there's something wrong with this study or you can suggest a better one I'd love to hear it.

If we consider the drafted Soler to be a high school draftee (not too unreasonable of an assumption), his expected WAR would range from 20.7, if he was the first pick, to 9.4, as the fifth pick. This is TOTAL career WAR, not necessarily just the wins generated during the time the Cubs would have control of him. The Cubs will have control of his peak years so it's fair to say that a solid majority of the production will occur over the course of the deal. We don't know exactly where he would be picked in the draft, so let's split the difference and treat him like a third overall pick, which has an expected career WAR of 12.1.

Soler is projected to go into high-A ball when he joins the organization, and should take three years or so to reach the bigs. The Cubs will then get three years of their negotiated cost control, then three more years of maybe-arbitration. There's also super two to consider but I don't think we need to worry about that given the total WAR above and the usual arbitration percentage discount rates. Super two looks good compared to league minumum, but Soler should already be making 5-6 times that.

We don't have the full details on how Soler's deal breaks down yet, and it's likely that it won't be a uniform $3.3m per year considering a likely reasonable signing bonus and some (typical for every signing) backloading. I don't want to get into trying to break down his WAR by year just yet to figure out arbitration, but the Cubs still do get *some* savings (based on 40/60/80) if he elects arbitration in those years. But let's just look at that $30m right now, since that's what the Cubs owe no matter what. Based on today's ~$5m/win, Soler only has to assumulate 6 WAR between his three non-arb years and the surplus WAR in his arb years. If you take into account the fact that $WAR is likely to go up under the new CBA's draft/international signing rules and the ridiculous new TV rights deals that teams are negotiating, the Cubs need even less production to make it breakeven.

Based on this reasoning it looks like this deal is a win for the Cubs, though not necessarily a huge one. Standard caveats apply – there's an awful lot of hand-waving going on here. It certainly doesn't look quite as good if he's "5th pick talent". And there's obviously still plenty of risk involved (and upside!). As we well know, the one thing that prospects do best is fail. But at least there's good reason to believe that a player with Soler's talent is more likely to fail at failing compared to most prospects.

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  1. Mobile Rice

    @ Berselius:
    I had this same issue. This is probably because Cespedes and Soler were mentioned in common reports. As I recall, Cespedes wore 51 while Soler wore 10 and that’s about the only way you can tell then apart.

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  2. Author
    Suburban kid

    Berselius wrote:

    The White Sox don’t play today, SK

    I considered this for a moment.

    Actually, aren’t there three abbreviations for the sox these days (CWS, CHW and CHA)? What do most of the newspaper box scores and TV line score use these days? I do not like the CHA/CHN usage…

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  3. Author
    Rice Cube

    This is one of the better pix of Soler I can find off Google:

    Interesting how such an obscure fellow who doesn’t even have a good picture (at least a readily available online one) was so coveted.

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  4. Author
    Rice Cube

    @ Suburban kid:
    (dying laughing)

    I didn’t really mean it that way 😀 Just that it’s very hard to find a picture of Soler and their jersey number seems the best way to discern them because the picture quality isn’t ideal.

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  5. Author
    mb21

    Nice work but drafted players get a signing bonus nowhere near what Soler is getting. The drafted player costs a few million (3rd pick) and this costing the cubs no less than 30. Since it could be for 9 years I don’t mind it bit it could also be expensive.

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  6. Berselius

    @ mb21:

    This is a FA signing, so you have to treat it like a FA signing when you’re talking $$. The draft comp is just to get a baseline for expected WAR. We’ve argued about this before though.

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  7. Pezcore

    What do you think the over/under is on Soler’s actual age? Concepcion played organized baseball. I would guess his age is at least somewhat reliable.

    Soler? We’ve already had one wrong answer, and all we’ve got to work from is A) the scouts and B) a Bozworthesque Demo tape.

    For all we know, he could be 25, hell.. even 30. Even if he’s only 22 or 23, do you really think a 22-23 year old outfielder in A-Ball is worth that much?

    He better be the listed age. Y’know what? This sounds like a Murray Chass move. Screw the statistics, my scouts are right. He loves scouts like Jim Hendry loves donuts. Tools are the key word. It’s sort of the ‘anti-SABR’ move.

    Chass has commented that the Red Sawx were anti-SABR before

    Old Man said this
    “Is it worth pointing out,” Neyer writes, “that these same Red Sox have built their organizational philosophy around the Bill James-Moneyball myths? That without sabermetrics the Red Sox wouldn’t have won one World Series, let alone two?”…. Moneyball teams didn’t consider defense a priority, and the Red Sox were one of them. When they realized the reality of their circumstances, they decided to gamble on not being thrown out of the Moneyball clan and traded for shortstop Orlando Cabrera and first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz, solidifying their infield defense and enhancing their playoff chances.

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  8. Author
    mb21

    I definitely think it is reasonable to question his age. Especially since it’s already gone up once. Say there’s a 80% chance he’s 20, 10% chance he’s 21 and 10% he’s older than that. I made these numbers up.

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  9. Pezcore

    I’m hoping on the under. I’m happy this isn’t an ML-contract, and I’m happy to see they are starting him at a low level. Still, he’s getting paid upwards of 3 Million yearly, and we know almost nothing about the guy.

    My first reaction is if he’s older that 23, we’re fucked. RAW should not come to mind on a 23-year old outfielder. Pitching is more complex.

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  10. Pezcore

    I think we should trade Brett Jackson and/or Scrapple at this point. All of our good specs seem to reside in either CF or RF. I also feel more bust than boom on both prospects who might be at peak value now.

    I’d do a prospect-for-prospect swap and aim for a Red Sawx Pitcher or a Blue Jays Catcher. Travis D’Arnaud is a name I like.

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  11. Doogolas

    I’m pretty sure his age thing was mostly looked into a while ago. Because initial reports on his existence when I saw them was that he was 18, and then everybody found out, “Oh wait, no, he’s actually 20.” So I don’t know if it’s as big of a concern as it might usually be.

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  12. Author
    SVB

    Hey MB.

    AAV. Ugh. That blows a lot of my verbiage right out of the water.

    Oh well. Learn something(s) new every day.

    Skip

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  13. Author
    bubblesdachimp

    Gamecocks have won 21 in a row in postseason play… That might be more games won in the postseason over the past three years then the Cubs have won in 100

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  14. PFD

    Wow. Rizzo has been absolutely incredible.

    Also, if Soler is a top 50 prospect in all of baseball, where do you guys think our farm system would rank right now? Almora, Soler, Baez, Rizzo, Jackson.. the Cubs are really amassing an impressive amount of young offensive talent. Too bad there’s no pitching to speak of right now.

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  15. Author
    bubblesdachimp

    i mean rizzo is just incredible. I just dont see how he isnt an all star first baseman. The best thing that ever happened to the cubs might be him failing in 120 at bats in san diego

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  16. Author
    bubblesdachimp

    @ PFD:

    Yea i am dreaming of a future team of something along the lines of

    1B Rizzo
    RF Soler
    3B Baez
    SS Castro
    CF Almora
    LF Jackson

    I would honestly call toronto and offer them Garza for D’Araund straight up. And i still have some hope for Alcantra, Lake, Vitters and some of the others..

    We need some pitching though. Or maybe we buy the pitching and go after Greinke AND Hamels… I am pretty optimistic though

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  17. Author
    bubblesdachimp

    But the thought of a potential lineup of

    Jackson
    Almora
    Castro
    Rizzo
    Baez
    Soler

    is allowing me to dream

    edit: Will wait for someone to tell me we will be lucky if 2 of them are above average

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  18. PFD

    Yeah bubs nobody would say you aren’t optimistic, that’s for sure. (dying laughing)

    If 2 or 3 of the guys on your list (excluding Castro) pan out I think the front office would be happy. Either way, this is the first time during my time the Cubs (probably since 98 or so) that our minor league hitting was among the best in baseball.

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  19. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    @ bubblesdachimp:

    I think if the Cubs trade Garza, they have to get some pitching back. Same is true for Dempster. Does anyone think Dempster + Vitters is worth Jacob Turner for Detroit?

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  20. Author
    bubblesdachimp

    @ PFD:

    I cant remember the last time i had faith in hitting prospects. Its always the same fucking story it seems. Tools without performance. But here is the difference. I think Thoyer and co are bringing in the people to develop these kids. Shit Baez is drawing walks. There is no way they sign soler for that much if they dont believe the talent is there. I trust these guys. I am worried about the pitching. McNutt got lit up. (might be time to say fuck the starting and go bullpen)
    @ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:

    Yea i am kinda down for that too. I wonder if we could actually package Garza AND Dempster to Detroit for Castellanos and Turner.. I mean illitch is in abd health and wants to win. They need SP.. I would also be curious to take a flyer on Porcello or Smyly as well..

    I also think no way on August 1st LaHair is on this team. And i think we will get something better back then we think. Wonder if there is any chance we could do Lahair and something for Zach Lee of the dodgers?

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  21. Author
    bubblesdachimp

    Also the Nats will 100% be buyers… I doubt they really want pitching though and i dont think corner OF/1B is what they need. Maybe Soto if he comes back and hits would be a good fit for them

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  22. Author
    mb21

    In bubs world every prospect works out and those who aren’t top prospects improve to top prospects. I’d be optimistic if I lived in that world too.

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  23. PFD

    mb, I tweeted at OVBlog earlier but got no response (maybe the twitter should be discredited too… (dying laughing) )

    Anyway, just wanted your take on the Soler signing. Still down on it, with the money and years?

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  24. Author
    bubblesdachimp

    @ mb21:

    When governments are being tyrannical it is the rights of the people to break the bonds with said government.

    I am 100% pro secession and war of southern independence

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  25. Author
    bubblesdachimp

    @ mb21:

    Thats not true perse. I just see these guys performing and i like what i see. With the shit product on the field excuse me for seeing a sign of hope.

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  26. Author
    mb21

    @ Doogolas:
    Paperwork in Haiti is apparently even more shady than in the DR so I’d be concerned. How much? I don’t know but it’s a real possibility. He already lied once.

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  27. Author
    ACT

    I like Rizzo and everything but let’s not go nuts. He’s probably not a future superstar. Besides, Cashner is a starter now!

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  28. shawndgoldman

    Anyone following the Iowa Cubs game? Apparently Rizzo got drilled in his last AB and then there was an “injury delay.”

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  29. shawndgoldman

    I think we’re going to see Rizzo this weekend, even if its just for one series. I know the economics don’t make sense, but this kid deserves a promotion.

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  30. Gen. Sherman

    bubblesdachimp wrote:

    @ mb21:
    I am 100% pro secession and war of southern independence

    Looking forward to re-defeating you.

    A seceded South Carolina would function eerily similar to North Korea in less than a decade.

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  31. Author
    mb21

    @ PFD:
    Weird. I don’t see that tweet. Anyway I’m not as down as I thought I’d be. 9 years is better than 4 but at the same time 8 years is misleading. I like it a lot better than the Concepcion deal.

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  32. Author
    mb21

    @ bubblesdachimp:
    Being optimistic is one thing but penciling two guys with zero professional experience into an MLB lineup is more than just liking these guys. Why not pencil in next year’s first round pick into the everyday lineup?

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  33. Author
    dylanj

    god the thought of being able to watch the US army attack South Carolina is too much. Once SC surrenders we can put Bubbles in a FEMA deathpanel camp

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  34. Author
    mb21

    I guess what I’m saying is that literally every single team has a dream team lineup and stud rotation in 5 years IF EVERYTHING WORKS OUT. every team’s top pick or two is a future superstar if all goes well.

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  35. Author
    dylanj

    we do need some pitching and I think when we trade Dempster that’s what we will get back. I think MD was right and we wont see the Cubs trade Garza unless we get a great deal. I think he will get extended.

    But say we get a B level guy back for Dempster and sign most of our class and get the top pick next year-thats turning a average to slightly below average farm into a good one real quick. I just wish this stupid CBA was gone.

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  36. Author
    mb21

    @ dylanj:
    I’d rather go after a position player if we trade Demp. Acquiring questionable young pitching doesn’t excite me too much. I could be wrong about his value though.

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  37. Author
    dylanj

    i feel pretty confident Rizzo is the real deal. Castro already is a productive player. But Jackson, Baez & Soler are just maybe’s and Almora is 19 years old (dying laughing). No sense counting on those guys.

    I still think there is something to Vitters. I hope he gets the starting job next year

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  38. Author
    bubblesdachimp

    @ mb21:

    Because the north waged a war of aggression on southern business?
    @ mb21:

    Why do we think 120 AB’s in the worst park in the majors for a 21 year old is more important than 500+ ABS of killing the ball at AAA when the scouting reports say his swing has gotten shorter? I mean shit Rizzo has some of the best numbers i have ever seen at AAA while being so young. The Cubs have no chance of getting him if he doesnt just fail in SD

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  39. Author
    dylanj

    also keep in mind if by a miracle the TRANSFORMATION! of F7 is real then we basically got an above average starter out of nowhere without giving anything up. A rotation with Garza and F7 at the front end is already a good start.

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  40. Author
    dylanj

    one thing ive noticed about Jackson since ive been watching a lot of iowa this year is he is kind of weird at the plate. When he strikes out its usually just flailing at pitches like 3-4 pitch AB’s and he looks Neifi lost. But he does take his walks. Its weird. its like sometimes he has already decided just to hack away

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  41. Perkins

    mb21 wrote:

    @ Doogolas:
    Paperwork in Haiti is apparently even more shady than in the DR so I’d be concerned. How much? I don’t know but it’s a real possibility. He already lied once.

    Having been to Haiti, I’ll say everything there is shady, except for the actual land since they basically deforested their whole country.

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  42. Author
    mb21

    @ Berselius:
    Pitching is relatively easy to acquire in my opinion. If you develop position players well you’re not going to struggle to find quality pitching. If there’s one thing that I didn’t like in this last week’s draft it’s that the Cubs drafted early on often on what the organization needs and not necessarily on talent. It’s entirely positive they took the BPA with all those picks that went to pitchers, but that’s not at all likely. Given how quickly pitchers fade into oblivion or how pitchers are basically at their peak by the time they reach the big leagues I just see no need to draft that many pitchers so early on. Based on my limited knowledge the Cubs draft was aimed at what the organization needed and not acquiring the best talent they could.

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  43. Doogolas

    Well, I mean, as far as Rizzo goes, it’s not just that he’s completely destroying the ball at Iowa, it’s that he’s destroying it in absolutely every conceivable situation. His OPS is under 1.000 in the following situations:

    Behind in the count. And even then he is hitting over .300 with an ISO over .150. Hell there are only two situations where his OPS is below 1.100:
    Behind in the count.
    April. And in April it was 1.093, I mean, he’s not just killing AAA he’s making it look like a joke. He may not be a future superstar, but I think it’s not being too optimistic to say we have an All-Star type guy.

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  44. Author
    bubblesdachimp

    @ mb21:

    I never liked ethier. Never. I think the dodgers have freaked out based on him leading the league in RBIs.

    As far as Rizzo goes. I mean shit this kid is what 22? In a full year he has hit what 48 or 49 homers? I mean if this kid is not an all star or superstar then i just dont know what more yall want. Yes he doesnt play in the middle of the diamond but so fucking what? I feel the negative impacts about this kid are based on 120 ABs in the bigs at 21. I just dont think that is fair. Especially on a blog that whenever someone does something good we say “SMALL SAMPLE SIZE” I would like rizzo to get the same benefit of the doubt. I mean this is no longer a small sample and he is 22 in AAA.

    Today was game 152 for Rizzo in AAA: 48 HR, 158 RBIs, an obp over .400 a OPS over 1.000, 50 doubles,

    If this isnt someone we are supposed to expect to be a superstar then what the fuck are we waiting for? I am 100% serious. Jesus. This kid is a fucking beast. A fucking man child at 22. But based on 153 plate appearances he is not that good. I love this blog but sometimes i shake my fucking head.

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  45. Doogolas

    I don’t think Billy Hamilton is going to be that good. IMO he doesn’t have enough “real power” for his walks to hold up in the majors. I’m guessing a lot of his doubles are just singles that he was able to stretch, ala Campana. But because he has no real power teams will throw him strikes all day and force him to hit his way on. Very possibly a solid player, but unless he has some actual power somewhere deep down inside, I don’t think he’s more than a slightly better version of Campana.

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  46. Smokestack Lightning

    I like Rizzo and everything but let’s not go nuts. He’s probably not a future superstar. Besides, Cashner is a starter now!

    Fuck that. I’m with bubs on this one. Go nuts, everybody. Enjoy the future possibilities of one Anthony Rizzo for once without having to endure all the caveats and constant fucking reminders of how shitty everything will continue to be no matter who we draft, who we sign, who develops, and who puts up 1.200 OPS at age 22 in AAA.

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  47. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    1B in the NL has also declined significantly. After Votto, it’s either LaHair or Freddie Freeman for the most productive this season. I don’t think there’s any doubt Rizzo is supposed to be better than LaHair of the dog.

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  48. Author
    EnricoPallazzo

    dylanj wrote:

    I still think there is something to Vitters.

    why? from what i’ve heard, the consensus seems to be that he’s not really gonna amount to much. but “what i’ve heard” may well be pure conjecture based on incorrect/incomplete analysis so i am just curious as to why you say that.

    @ bubblesdachimp:

    amen. there is absolutely jack shit to get excited about at the major league level. and i don’t watch other sports. so rizzo is the only bright spot and i’ll be damned if i’m not gonna enjoy watching him put up monster numbers in the PCL and hopefully the NL central at some point.

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  49. Author
    mb21

    I think Vitters could end up being a decent utility or platoon player. I don’t see much of a future for him as a starter. I don’t think he can stick at 3rd base for very long and if you move him to LF or 1st base he just doesn’t have the bat. He hasn’t been very good since his 28 game stint in High A back in 2010. Since he’s had wRC+s of 84, 99 and this year it’s 94. You really have to go back to the first half of 2009 to find the last time he’s been good over a decent period of time. Considering the likely switch to an easier position and his walk rate I just don’t see how he can be a decent starter. I think you really have to look for the positive and throw out the negative, which is basically looking at his really good half in 2009 and really good month in 2010 and weighting those more than the rest.

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  50. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    I’m as excited as any of you about Rizzo. His numbers are eye-popping, even for the PCL. But so were Jake Fox’s (and yes I realize there’s an age difference). So I try and temper my expectations for him, even as I am immensely enjoying his incredible performance. I don’t see why I can’t do both, or why I shouldn’t do both. It’s a lot more likely that Rizzo is a lot more Leon Durham than he is Mark Teixeria. That’s just a simple matter of fact, and stating that fact doesn’t dampen my enthusiasm for him one bit. It just makes me circumspect in my expectations for him, which I think is a healthy way to be a fan.

    Hope wildly, expect realistically.

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  51. Author
    mb21

    Vitters has a league average OPS and his OBP is well below league average. There just aren’t too many players like that who succeed at the big league level and most who do have tremendous power (Soriano). Vitters is slow, not very good on defense, has average power and gets on base very little.

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  52. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Mucker:

    I’d be surprised if there is. THoyer don’t seem anxious to say much about it. I think they’re much more concerned to get this guy in the fold so they can watch him play.

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  53. Author
    WaLi

    Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

    His numbers are eye-popping, even for the PCL. But so were Jake Fox’s

    Since we like to look at past numbers and temper our expectations so the hope monster doesn’t get us, how many players have put up #’s like him in AAA? Who has done it at his age?

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  54. Author
    mb21

    Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

    That’s just a simple matter of fact, and stating that fact doesn’t dampen my enthusiasm for him one bit. It just makes me circumspect in my expectations for him, which I think is a healthy way to be a fan.

    Well put. I see no reason we can’t be optimistic and rational. Pencil Rizzo into the lineup. Put him in the best spot in the lineup. He just might be that good. At the same time, accept the reality that even being average at the MLB level is damn hard and being above average is even harder. Being really good is extremely hard and unlikely for any prospect. Being great is a dream.

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  55. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    @ mb21:
    It’s pretty crazy when you think how highly rated he was as a prospect going into the draft, and see what he’s become.

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  56. Author
    EnricoPallazzo

    mb, what is your new avatar? it would appear to be a severed head that has been somehow attached to the shell of a turtle. but i’m guessing that’s wrong…

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  57. Author
    Mercurial Outfielder

    @ WaLi:
    In the PCL? Without looking, probably quite a few. Hell, Micah Hoffpauir carried a 1.145 OPS over 313 PA in the PCL in 2008, and immortals such as Larry Sutton, Calvin Pickering, and Jason DuBois have done the same. In Rizzo’s age group, you see names like Travis Snider, Kila, and CarGo putting up big OPS numbers in the PCL. It’s a good young hitter tearing a league that is very hitter-friendly. That’s a fact. But saying does not diminish in the least< what Rizzo is doing. It just helps me to realize that what he is doing right now is no guarantee of big league success. Doesn’t make his season any less impressive, though. That is for damn sure.

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  58. Author
    mb21

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    No shit. Went from top high school bat in the country to nothing pretty quickly for me. That walk rate was horrendous. It’s actually slightly better this year, but we’re not halfway through the season.

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  59. Author
    mb21

    EnricoPallazzo wrote:

    mb, what is your new avatar? it would appear to be a severed head that has been somehow attached to the shell of a turtle. but i’m guessing that’s wrong…

    That’s exactly what it is (Tortuga from Breaking Bad)

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  60. dan

    @ mb21:
    according to the confederacy’s vice president Alexander Hamilton Stephans….the great truth that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery-subordination to the superior race-is his natural and normal condition. This new government is the first in the history of the world, based upon this great physical,philosophical, and moral truth.

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