Addison Russell maybe fixed it

In Better Know a Cub by myles106 Comments

Starting pitching woes aside, this year has been extremely fun for Cubs fans. Something interesting – sort the Cubs in descending order of plate appearances on the year, and you have to get to the 11th player on the list (Tommy the Stella, 83) before you find one that is not above the league average in wRC+. Put another way, the Cubs (when at full health) will always have at least a league-average bat coming off the bench in a baseball game. At pretty much the exact half-way mark of the season, the Cubs already have 6 starters at 2 fWAR.

The 6th in that list is a shortstop by the name of Addison Russell, who is doing his best to erase the bad taste 2017 left in everybody’s mouth. First things first – I’m always going to have his personal issues in my head when thinking about Addison, which doesn’t allow me to see completely straight. That said, I obviously don’t have all the information, and I’m probably never going to have more information that I do now, so it’s not fruitful to think about it. Instead, let’s focus on the abysmal year Russell had at the plate in 2017. Russell dealt with injury, and those 50 games he missed manifested themselves in the 110 games he did play. He walked less (by 1.7%), he struckout more (by 1.0%), and he ended the season with a lower wOBA than even Jason Heyward (who has been another revelation this season).

In 2018, Addison has changed his hit profile completely. Prior to this season, Russell pulled around 42% of his batted balls, with around 40% of all balls in play being grounders. This year, he’s using the middle of the field a lot more (up 10% over last year), and he’s getting some more elevation on his bat (27% LD from 21% in his career up to 2018). Also, his plate appearances look the best that they ever have as a Cub. Russell is walking nearly 10% of the time, and his strikeouts are around 20%. Russell hasn’t had the power that he’s had before, so you worry that perhaps he’s giving up some power for contact. If that’s the case, though, it’s a tradeoff that has paid off. Russell currently has 38 points on the league average for on-base percentage – he’s never been able to do that over a whole year in his career.

If you look at baseball savant, you can see the uptick in plate discipline that has led to this outcome. Russell is swinging less in general, but he’s chasing at career-low rates. He’s also missing at less pitches (due to making contact with more pitches in the zone). Most encouragingly, he’s been swinging at “meatballs”, which implies at least weakly that he’s not just guessing at the plate (or that he’s guessing right).

Lastly, Russell has been avoiding getting killed on offspeed stuff. In 2017, All you had to do to get Russell out was get to 2 strikes and throw offspeed in the ZIP of the plate. He loved swinging and also rarely made contact. That hasn’t been the case this year – he’s shored that hole in his game for the most part. In fact, while last year Russell was basically the same hitter against power, finesse, or average pitchers, Russell has tuned up finesse pitchers this year.

It’s too early to say definitely that Russell is now a better-than-average hitter. There are promising signs, but they aren’t universally positive. His exit velocity is down this year. His statcast data implies that he’s been lucky this year. It’s also too early in the year to say with great certainty that his chase rate and contact rate is absolutely stable. That said, he passes the eye test, and there are many pieces of evidence that he passes the stats test also. Russell was always brought his glove to the stadium, and this year he’s brought the bat as well. The ship on Russell, MVP candidate has probably long sailed (if it ever existed in the first place), but championship teams absolutely require cost-controlled 3-win players, and Russell is on pace to be that this year and more.

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  3. Rizzo the Rat

    Note: I’ve voted for Turner 20 times for the All-Star Game. I’m a genius, is what I’m saying.

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  5. Rice Cube

    For those wondering…

    Carl Edwards Jr. Returns! Maples and Zastryzny back to Iowa.

    Yu optimistically back by trade deadline but who the fuck knows.

    Bryant had a good BP and may go on a rehab stint before coming back to Cubs.

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  7. dmick89

    Myles, this was a nice article on Russell. I’d been meaning to write something along these lines for the last few weeks. He definitely passes the eye test as being better at the plate, especially plate discipline. The exit velocity drop is a bit concerning, especially with the higher line drive rate, so it will be interesting to see where this ends up at the end of the season. I never doubted that Russell wouldn’t be better than he was last year. I’m thrilled that he seems to have taken a step forward, which in all honesty I was not expecting. I know some have been expecting him to take that step forward, but his skill set seems like one that’s probably at its peak and will only get worse as he gets into his late 20s. For the time being, he’s great defensively, above average to well above average on the bases, probably slightly below average at the plate and overall is an above average shortstop. I’ll take that.

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  10. Rizzo the Rat

    Monty’s strategy of pitching gopher balls that the wind rescues is working brilliantly.

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  14. Rizzo the Rat

    Why are the crowd cheering a one-out sac fly when the Cubs are down two runs in the eighth?

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  24. North Side Pat

    I’d be fine with never seeing Chatwood on the mound again this season. Do with him what was done with Brett Anderson last year.

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  31. Rizzo the Rat

    Seriously, I know they’re down several runs but how do you not bring in a lefty to face Votto?

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  40. Rice Cube

    It was certainly a fun game to listen to. Gonna have to watch the highlights so I can start angry and end happy.

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  42. Rizzo the Rat

    I honestly wonder if having Chatwood throw over 120 pitches is some meta-strategy so they can put him on the DL for “fatigue” or something.

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  44. Rizzo the Rat

    Jake’s two biggest strikeout games this year have been against the Pirates… who have the fewest strikeouts in the league.

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  49. andcounting

    I didn’t realize Javy already has 16 SB with only one caught stealing this season. He had only stolen 28 bases prior to 2018. That’s kinda bizarre.

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  57. SK

    I can imagine the resignation in Pat’s voice, over-enunciating all five syllables of Suarez’s first name just now

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  94. Perkins

    There’s something innately satisfying about winning on a walk-off BB. It feels much more humiliating for the opposing team.

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  99. Berselius stuck in an airport

    If I weren’t a Cubs fan, I’d find Hamilton’s bizarre ownage of Lester pretty hilarious.

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  101. Perkins

    Javy, Willson, Lester ——-> All Stars

    Javy and Willson won the vote at their respective positions.

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  104. Rizzo the Rat

    Anyway, I’m happy for all the Cubs All-Stars, even if I couldn’t vote for Contreras over Posey in good conscience.

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  105. Rizzo the Rat

    Final ASG note: the NL team looks pretty weak this year. Two of the outfielders are not-very-good players having fluky years. (Harper, of course, is a very good player having a down year, but still worse than all three AL outfielders.) The NL does have a large advantage at first base, at least.

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