The Cubs recently acquired top prospect Anthony Rizzo and some thought he may be the top prospect in the Cubs organization. I didn’t see how that would be possible when you consider their positions and John Sickels agrees with that. Both Brett Jackson and Rizzo were the top prospects of their organizations according to Baseball America prior to Rizzo joining the Cubs. I’m guessing he’ll be ranked 2nd in the Cubs organization. My opinion before I started looking more closely at it was that Jackson was the superior prospect by quite a bit.
It’s important to point out that Rizzo is a year younger than Brett Jackson, but Jackson is young himself so I’m not sure how much of a factor this really is. I looked at the numbers for each stop along the way to compare the two.
Rookie League
| Player | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | XBH% | ISO | BB% | K% |
| Rizzo | 24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .286 | .375 | .429 | .385 | .045 | .089 | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Jackson | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .455 | .533 | .636 | .512 | .067 | .078 | 20.0% | 26.7% |
Both players breezed through rookie league, but the age at which they did is most apparent at this level as Jackson went to college and Rizzo was drafted out high school.
Brett Jackson had a stop in short-season rookie league while Rizzo was promoted directly to A ball.
Low A
| Player | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | XBH% | ISO | BB% | K% |
| Rizzo | 361 | 104 | 27 | 0 | 9 | .317 | .374 | .482 | .389 | .101 | .057 | 8.6% | 20.8% |
| Jackson | 128 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 7 | .295 | .383 | .545 | .436 | .107 | .088 | 11.8% | 25.2% |
Jackson continues to hit more extra base bits, walk considerably more often and also strikeout at a much higher rate than Rizzo. Both players had impressive stints in A ball.
High A
| Player | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | XBH% | ISO | BB% | K% |
| Rizzo | 364 | 88 | 28 | 0 | 8 | .278 | .357 | .442 | .359 | .101 | .079 | 9.8% | 19.9% |
| Jackson | 312 | 83 | 19 | 8 | 6 | .316 | .420 | .517 | .424 | .108 | .104 | 14.8% | 20.3% |
Jackson was in High A at age 21 while Rizzo was there at 19 and 20. Age doesn’t make up for the significant difference here. Jackson out-hit Rizzo in every way. Even the strikeout rate was nearly equal.
| Player | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | XBH% | ISO | BB% | K% |
| Rizzo | 467 | 109 | 30 | 0 | 20 | .263 | .334 | .481 | .361 | .108 | .071 | 9.5% | 21.6% |
| Jackson | 565 | 126 | 23 | 9 | 16 | .266 | .370 | .454 | .378 | .086 | .104 | 14.0% | 24.3% |
Rizzo’s season at AA was basically the same as his season at High A. Jackson was worse at AA, but he’s still out-hitting Rizzo. Rizzo did hit for more power, but Jackson got on base at a much higher rate. Strikeouts become even more of a problem for Jackson while also becoming one for Rizzo at this point.
AAA
| Player | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | XBH% | ISO | BB% | K% |
| Rizzo | 413 | 118 | 34 | 1 | 26 | .331 | .404 | .652 | .433 | .152 | .073 | 10.8% | 21.8% |
| Jackson | 215 | 55 | 13 | 2 | 10 | .297 | .388 | .551 | .404 | .118 | .091 | 11.8% | 30.2% |
Rizzo had one of the most impressive offensive seasons of any minor leaguer last year. Jackson held his own too, but the strikeout rate becomes alarmingly high.
Career
| Player | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | XBH% | ISO | BB% | K% |
| Rizzo | 1629 | 425 | 119 | 1 | 64 | .296 | .366 | .514 | .385 | .115 | .070 | 9.7% | 20.9% |
| Jackson | 1341 | 331 | 61 | 22 | 40 | .292 | .393 | .491 | .402 | .094 | .101 | 13.8% | 24.0% |
Rizzo is more of a power hitter than Jackson, which shows in the slugging, extra base hit percentage and isolated power. Jackson is more patient at the plate though Rizzo isn’t at all impatient. Jackson is also going to strikeout a lot more. Overall, Jackson has been the better hitter by about 20 points of wOBA. The number there that most stands out to me is the number of triples each player has. Jackson is a considerably better athlete, which is why he’s playing CF and Rizzo is stuck at the other end of the defensive spectrum.
As a result, Jackson is quite a bit better as a prospect than Rizzo. When you consider the defensive adjustment used in WAR, Rizzo would have be as much better as he was in AAA to be of equal value to Jackson. Centerfielders and Shortstops are worth +0.25 WAR for their position alone. 1st base is the easiest position on the field and the defensive adjustment is -1.25 WAR.
As you can see, for Rizzo to be equal to Jackson he’ll have to be 1.5 WAR better as a hitter. Rizzo is also not a very good baserunner while we can expect Jackson to excel at it.
Both of these players are good prospects and it’s awfully nice to have one organization’s top prospect as the Cubs number 2, but Jackson is the better prospect here and it’s not particularly close.
CAIRO projects a .316 wOBA and 1.9 WAR for Brett Jackson over 600+ PA. It projects a .289 wOBA and 0.1 WAR for Rizzo over 450+ PA. Oliver projects a .330 wOBA and 1.5 WAR for Jackson and .339 wOBA and 0.6 WAR for Rizzo. Bill James projects a .342 wOBA for Jackson and .318 for Rizzo. So there are two who expect more offense from Jackson and overall, the value difference is significant. Brett Jackson is a very good prospect. There are reasons to be concerned. He strikes out a ton, but he does a lot of very good things. Rizzo is also a good prospect, but he’s going to have to hit more than Jackson has to in order to be successful.
Comments
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MishQuote Reply
Also, should be called “A Tale of 2 Prospects”, because there’s not enough Dickens on this blog.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami](dying laughing)
http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?t=685039&page=2
SK lead me to believe that links were bad manners.[/quote]
Links without any summary are bad, and people who post links willy-nilly with no description are bad people.
You are still a good person, assuming you have not raped anyone, are steroid free, and do charity work.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Mish].[/quote]:
BerseliusQuote Reply
I’m not a stat nerd or a math major but don’t you get ISO by subtracting BA from SLG? Are your #s correct in the ISO field?
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Jon Heyman]#reds and #rays are in on ryan theriot, a versatile infielder with a excellent bat. #astros also have some interest[/quote](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Aisle424Quote Reply
http://www.fuckyouall.co.uk
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]www.fuckyouall.co.uk[/quote]I won’t click that unless you tell me what it is.
MishQuote Reply
http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/01/peter-abraham-is-not-plagiarist-but-he.html
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mucker]I’m not a stat nerd or a math major but don’t you get ISO by subtracting BA from SLG? Are your #s correct in the ISO field?[/quote](dying laughing) I think I subtracted BA from OBP. I have no idea why I did that, but it’s too funny to change now.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]www.fuckyouall.co.uk[/quote](dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
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uncle daveQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/01/peter-abraham-is-not-plagiarist-but-he.html[/quote]Here’s the money quote for you, SK
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MishQuote Reply
You should replace all that text and those tables with this:
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
KG also rates Rizzo behind Baez, though it’s hard to compare them at their different stages of development.
ACTQuote Reply
Levine says the Cubs are close to a 1-year deal with kWood.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]:[/quote]
This is about motherfuckin’ periods
.
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]This is about motherfuckin’ periods
[/quote]
Which ruined my night last night, as your mom was on hers.
BAZINGA
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)[/quote]
So let me see…. he gets paid by a MAJOR media publication to write about baseball. Yet, knows nothing of the sport or its players.
I’m continued to be amazed by the amount of stupidity each of these journalists manage to have.
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Which ruined my night last night, as your mom was on hers.
BAZINGA[/quote]
My mom is dead. Joke’s on you.
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
I didn’t realize Theriot’s bat was so excellent.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]My mom is dead. Joke’s on you.[/quote]Mish likes that shit.
mb21Quote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Mish likes that shit.[/quote]They put up less of a fight.
It was 3 AM and she was in a graveyard, what did you expect would happen?
/Castro apologist’d
MishQuote Reply
Necrophilia? No wonder people continue to blast this site for being complete shit.
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]I didn’t realize Theriot’s bat was so excellent.[/quote]Did you know he was a versatile infielder?
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]They put up less of a fight.
It was 3 AM and she was in a graveyard, what did you expect would happen?
/Castro apologist’d[/quote]Dead girls don’t say no.
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]They put up less of a fight.
It was 3 AM and she was in a graveyard, what did you expect would happen?
/Castro apologist’d[/quote]
Necrophilia means never having to say you’re sorry.
Snyds01Quote Reply
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]Dead girls don’t say no.[/quote]Neither do girls that are alive if you have chloroform.
MuckerQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/big-splash-before-cubs-convention-is-a-myth.html
mb21Quote Reply
It kinda seems like apples and oranges at this point because they have different qualities due to playing different positions. Hopefully Rizzo will get his batspeed up this year in AAA since he will less likely be brought up this year than jackson i think. Both should help the club a lot in the future and hopefully as soon as this year for jackson.
andrewQuote Reply