2016 Steamer Projections: 100 Wins?

In Commentary And Analysis, Projections, Unobstructed Views by JonKneeV41 Comments

Well. That sure was fun. Although the Theo & Jed may not be done swinging deals yet (rumors include trading for a cost controlled, young starter and/or a CF), we can take a look at how the New-Look-Cubs project for next season with the additions of Jason Heyward, John Lackey, Ben Zobrist, and Adam Warren.

First, a fun look at the top ten position players in fWAR according to Steamer:

Name Team Off Def WAR
Mike Trout Angels 61.6 3.3 9.2
Bryce Harper Nationals 49.5 -6 6.8
Josh Donaldson Blue Jays 23.9 10.1 5.9
Giancarlo Stanton Marlins 39.9 -4.7 5.9
Manny Machado Orioles 18.7 14.2 5.8
Andrew McCutchen Pirates 37.1 -3.6 5.7
Kris Bryant Cubs 29.2 3.1 5.6
Paul Goldschmidt Diamondbacks 35.6 -6.6 5.2
Anthony Rizzo Cubs 31.9 -4.5 5.1
Jason Heyward Cubs 19.6 5.7 4.8

That's three Cubs position players that are projected to be in the top 10 in 2016 fWAR. Quite impressive. Jake Arrieta also comes in at #5 for pitcher WAR projections.

Now let's take a look at the projections for the all the Cubs currently rostered.

Name PA Off Def WAR
Anthony Rizzo 657 31.9 -4.5 5.1
Kris Bryant 651 29.2 3.1 5.6
Jason Heyward 648 19.6 5.7 4.8
Ben Zobrist 621 10.4 1.8 3.3
Jorge Soler 520 4.4 -9.3 1.2
Kyle Schwarber 501 14.8 -6 2.6
Addison Russell 501 -4.7 8.9 2.1
Miguel Montero 412 -4.3 9 1.9
Chris Coghlan 283 -1.1 -3.1 0.5
Javier Baez 273 1.7 -0.1 1.1
Tommy La Stella 156 -0.4 -2.4 0.2
David Ross 151 -7.9 3.4 0
Brendan Ryan 141 -8 2.5 -0.1
Arismendy Alcantara 90 -1.7 0.3 0.1
Christian Villanueva 70 -1.3 -1.4 -0.1
Matt Szczur 47 -1.3 -1 -0.1
Willson Contreras 13 -0.2 0.3 0.1
TOTAL      

28.3

Name IP ERA FIP WAR
Jake Arrieta 208 2.93 2.93 5.2
Jon Lester 204 3.15 3.22 4.4
John Lackey 193 3.67 3.72 2.9
Kyle Hendricks 166 3.49 3.61 2.7
Jason Hammel 157 3.74 3.80 2.2
Pedro Strop 65 3.06 3.14 0.8
Hector Rondon 65 3.13 3.22 0.7
Travis Wood 63 3.36 3.85 0.4
Justin Grimm 55 3.03 3.12 0.7
Trevor Cahill 55 3.53 3.58 0.4
Adam Warren 40 3.06 3.26 0.4
Neil Ramirez 35 3.39 3.59 0.2
Clayton Richard 30 3.57 3.86 0.1
Rex Brothers 25 3.96 3.99 0
Yoervis Medina 20 3.96 4.05 0
Zac Rosscup 15 3.35 3.57 0.1
Spencer Patton 10 3.34 3.40 0.1
Pierce Johnson 10 3.67 3.82 0
Andury Acevedo 10 4.24 4.39 0
Carl Edwards 9 4.22 4.16 0.1
Eric Jokisch 9 4.12 4.28 0.1
Dallas Beeler 9 4.30 4.45 0.1
TOTAL       21.6

The projected "true talent level" of the 2016 Chicago Cubs is 49.9 wins above replacement. A replacement level team is 47.7 wins. Put those numbers together and Steamer projects the currently-as-built Cubs to win 97.6 games.

They will be a popular pick by most baseball pundits to win the NL Central and 2016 World Series. A lot can still go wrong, but it looks like 2016 will be a very competitive year on the North Side. By pretty much all our reactions to the Jason Heyward signing, it was a huge get for the Cubs not only by addition, but subtraction from the Cardinals. I'm sure many of your agree with me, but on paper the 2016 Cubs will be the best Cubs team of my lifetime. I'm just glad that we finally have an owner and leadership that didn't cave into the pressure (and poorly written essays) of fans and instead followed their process. Get excited ladies and gentlemen. 

Share this Post

Comments

  4. Author
    JonKneeV

    Uh oh. I don’t think I should have gone over to check out that BCB post.

    If you don’t want to go over there, basically TL;DR version is “Woe is me. I was wrong about about the rebuild, but you guys are picking on me, so say you’re sorry.”

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  7. berselius

    cerulean: I disagree with this statement. As social animals, loyalty is hardwired into the brains of most us.

    However, loyalty almost always has a price, and I think that price is seldom more than five or six figures—in other words, a drop in the bucket relative to the contracts being signed. As we have seen with Zobrist and Heyward, there are other factors that have enormous value for the individual, but loyalty at these rates is not one of them.

    Compounding the issue—neither the team nor the player is indebted to the other if either are any good, further diminishing the value of loyalty. It’s business, and at this scale, it trumps the personal.

    Maybe that’s part of why Trump is such an asshole.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  15. cerulean

    Smokestack Lightning,

    That’s kind of too bad, because they are probably right that the other names aren’t worth it. I’d rather see them blow their flexibility on players more likely to be busts than have enough to offer Harper a contract in a few years. But I think this is why the Cards are the Cards.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  16. Perkins

    Many people learn something about themselves and take an opportunity to grow when they are provably wrong on a consistent basis. Nice to see that Alvin still isn’t one of them.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  17. Author
    JonKneeV

    dmick89,

    This says since 2013

    Until early 2013, it used to be that FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference both calculated WAR using different values for replacement level. That has since been changed, and both sites now calculate replacement level the same way:

    This new unified replacement level is now set at 1,000 WAR per 2,430 Major League games, which is the number of wins available in a 162 game season played by 30 teams. Or, an easier way to put it is that our new replacement level is now equal to a .294 winning percentage, which works out to 47.7 wins over a full season.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  18. Myles

    dmick89:
    For some reason I thought Fangraphs used a .300 replacement level, which would mean 48.6 wins. When did they change that?

    Few years ago. Bref and FG standardized their replacement level (though they are obviously still calculated differently).

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  22. Author
    JonKneeV

    Interesting the Steamer projects Javier Baez being worth 1.1 WAR despite getting less than half of a season’s PAs.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  24. Myles

    EnricoPallazzo,

    Well, in my opinion his defense is overrated to begin with. He also hasn’t had a positive defensive rating since 2012 according to fangraphs (though inside edge loves him). I think he’s an average first baseman, defensively.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  27. cerulean

    EnricoPallazzo,

    Aren’t these Def values adjusted by the level of difficulty of the position? Rizzo has been worth 38 DRS in his career, but has a -17.5 Def per fangraphs. Chances are all 1Bs have a negative Def to begin with—that is, normalized to every position, not just first base.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  28. dmick89

    UZR has him at 26.9 in his career. Above average, but not great. 8.3 in 2013 was his best followed by 7.0 and 3.4 last year. I don’t know what’s been the best years defensively for a 1st baseman, but Pujols’ prime at 1st is the gold standard for me. He was ridiculous over there for a few years and maybe even longer. No idea how good he’s been the last 5-7 years though.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  33. cerulean

    Pujols had one truly exceptional year in 2007: DRS of 31, UZR of 24.1, Def of 13.1—his only positive Def with the exception of his rookie season, but that was before most of the advanced metrics like UZR.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  35. cerulean

    dmick89:
    This is the new puppy I’m getting in a few weeks. She’s 5 weeks old in this picture and is currently 7 weeks old.

    I’ll speak on behalf of everyone here in saying that there will need to be lots of gifs of this one.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  36. Smokestack Lightning

    cerulean:
    Smokestack Lightning,

    That’s kind of too bad, because they are probably right that the other names aren’t worth it. I’d rather see them blow their flexibility on players more likely to be busts than have enough to offer Harper a contract in a few years. But I think this is why the Cards are the Cards.

    Either way, it works for the Cubs, at least on paper. If the Cardinals save their cash and can’t do something biggish in the trade market, then they’re quite possibly looking at 3rd place and hoping to sneak in on the WC next year (or not making the playoffs altogether), and then probably keeping ye olde powder dry another year since it’s not likely they’ll outbid the field for the very little that’s going to be out there in Winter 2016 either.

    So, they may not hurt their flexibility long-term by sitting out the remaining expensive names, but they’re doing their short-term no favors either. Losing on Price and Heyward is kind of a big deal, especially with the latter going to their chief division rival.

    Yes, yes, I’m sure they’ll find a way to be not terrible, but putting aside all superstitiousness about their magical ability to win 90+ regardless of what’s on their roster, barring something substantial trade-wise I think it’s far more likely that they’re looking at a short period of semi-irrelevance similar to 2007-2008 (though I doubt they’ll dip under .500 with the Brewers and Reds punting), than keeping pace with the Cubs, and maybe even the Pirates (assuming they’ve got more moves in the pipeline).

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  39. Perkins

    If anyone is interested in face value tickets (available for most games) in section 436 next season, get at me. I’m willing to sell at face for most games, other than Cubs/Sox, weekend Cubs/Cardinals, and the home opener.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0

Leave a Comment