These 2016 Cubs are one of the best teams in the divisional era

In Commentary And Analysis by dmick8911 Comments

This is the best Cubs team most of us have seen in our lifetimes. You’d have to be pretty old to have seen a better Cubs team than the 2016 version. So let’s just say this is the best Cubs team in our lives, but how good are they compared to the rest of the teams? The Cubs 3rd order winning percentage has been quite high all season long. What is 3rd order winning percentage? I bring it up a lot around here and so I thought I’d share the definition from BPro.

3rd Order Winning Percentage: A team’s projected winning percentage, based on underlying statistics and adjusted for quality of opponents.

Uses Adjusted Equivalent Runs scored and allowed, which adjust the Equivalent Runs totals for the quality of each team’s opponents’ pitching and defense.

Clay Davenport introduces higher-order winning percentage in this article.

I’ve always thought of 3rd order winning percentage as a type of Pythagorean Theorem that attempts to remove some of the luck involved in baseball, as well as an adjustment for the quality of the opponents.

The 2016 Cubs have a 3rd order winning percentage of .702 through August. I looked back at all teams in the divisional era through the month of August. That began in 1969. Why just back to 1969? For starters, no one answered my ad to be my research assistant. The 24-team league is what I remember about baseball in my childhood. Finally, the strike zone and the lowering of the mound in 1969 had a big enough impact on the game that I felt it would be a good starting point.

These Cubs rank 3rd in 3rd order winning percentage in the divisional era. Only the 1969 Baltimore Orioles and 1998 New York Yankees rank higher. Here is the top 10.

Year Team W L PCT RS RA W3 L3 PCT3
1969 Baltimore Orioles 91 43 0.679 665 423 95.8 38.2 0.715
1998 New York Yankees 98 37 0.726 826 552 95.4 39.6 0.707
2016 Chicago Cubs 85 47 0.644 672 450 92.7 39.3 0.702
1998 Atlanta Braves 90 48 0.652 713 519 96.5 41.5 0.699
2001 Seattle Mariners 96 39 0.711 768 536 92.7 42.3 0.687
1974 Los Angeles Dodgers 83 49 0.629 661 461 89.9 42.1 0.681
1997 Atlanta Braves 85 51 0.625 678 483 91.2 44.8 0.670
2013 Detroit Tigers 80 56 0.588 699 530 90.8 45.2 0.668
2007 Boston Red Sox 80 55 0.593 712 538 90.1 44.9 0.667
1996 Atlanta Braves 84 51 0.622 659 509 89.7 45.3 0.665

I was surprised to see the Cubs ahead of the 2001 Mariners. They weren’t in actual record, but they were in this metric. The difference between the top 4 teams isn’t great. Only .016 points separates the ’69 Orioles and ’98 Braves. There’s a .050 difference between number 1 and number 10. The Cubs come out pretty good in actual record too.

Year Team W L PCT RS RA W3 L3 PCT3
1998 New York Yankees 98 37 0.726 826 552 95.4 39.6 0.707
2001 Seattle Mariners 96 39 0.711 768 536 92.7 42.3 0.687
1995 Cleveland Indians 80 35 0.696 663 490 71.9 43.1 0.625
1969 Baltimore Orioles 91 43 0.679 665 423 95.8 38.2 0.715
1986 New York Mets 87 43 0.669 639 473 82.8 47.2 0.637
1975 Cincinnati Reds 90 45 0.667 700 480 83.7 51.3 0.620
2004 St. Louis Cardinals 87 44 0.664 705 526 83.5 47.5 0.637
1979 Baltimore Orioles 87 45 0.659 629 492 83.9 48.1 0.636
1998 Atlanta Braves 90 48 0.652 713 519 96.5 41.5 0.699
2011 Philadelphia Phillies 86 46 0.652 599 429 84.7 47.3 0.641
1971 Oakland Athletics 87 47 0.649 597 462 83.4 50.6 0.622
1993 San Francisco Giants 85 46 0.649 677 522 80.5 50.5 0.614
1980 Kansas City Royals 85 46 0.649 673 545 77.1 53.9 0.588
2015 St. Louis Cardinals 85 46 0.649 532 392 75.6 55.4 0.577
1970 Baltimore Orioles 86 47 0.647 654 488 84.1 48.9 0.632
1998 San Diego Padres 89 49 0.645 669 530 82.3 55.7 0.596
2016 Chicago Cubs 85 47 0.644 672 450 92.7 39.3 0.702
1984 Detroit Tigers 87 48 0.644 699 555 87.1 47.9 0.645
2003 Atlanta Braves 87 49 0.640 778 629 82.6 53.4 0.607
1997 Baltimore Orioles 85 48 0.639 676 520 78 55 0.586

17th best out of 1290 seasons isn’t too bad either. It’s not as good as the 3rd order winning percentage, but still pretty awesome. How about the Baltimore Orioles placing four teams on the list of the best 20? Last year’s Cardinals were 14th best through August. I hope the Cubs don’t suffer the same fate they did, but I think by the end of the season the Cubs were just the better team.

In fact, I think it’s fairly clear that since about the midpoint of last season the Cubs have been, by far, the best team in baseball. Once Addison Russell and Kris Bryant got settled in and Kyle Schwarber got called up, I don’t see another team that compares too well against the Cubs.

Finally, here is the complete list of the Chicago Cubs seasons since 1969 through August. It’s a depressing list so feel free to skip it.

Year Team W L PCT RS RA W3 L3 PCT3
2016 Chicago Cubs 85 47 0.644 672 450 92.7 39.3 0.702
1969 Chicago Cubs 83 53 0.610 632 483 84 52 0.618
2008 Chicago Cubs 85 52 0.620 743 554 83.9 53.1 0.612
2004 Chicago Cubs 72 60 0.545 640 543 74.8 57.2 0.567
2001 Chicago Cubs 75 59 0.560 614 564 75.7 58.3 0.565
2015 Chicago Cubs 74 56 0.569 533 511 71.1 58.9 0.547
1984 Chicago Cubs 80 54 0.597 651 549 73.2 60.8 0.546
1970 Chicago Cubs 69 64 0.519 674 571 72.4 60.6 0.545
1972 Chicago Cubs 67 59 0.532 546 474 68.3 57.7 0.542
1989 Chicago Cubs 75 58 0.564 564 513 70.7 62.3 0.532
2003 Chicago Cubs 69 66 0.511 586 584 71.4 63.6 0.529
2005 Chicago Cubs 63 70 0.474 596 607 69.6 63.4 0.523
1977 Chicago Cubs 72 60 0.545 597 599 69 63 0.522
1971 Chicago Cubs 71 63 0.530 535 522 70 64 0.522
2009 Chicago Cubs 65 64 0.504 572 553 67.1 61.9 0.521
2007 Chicago Cubs 68 65 0.511 608 565 68.3 64.7 0.513
1996 Chicago Cubs 67 67 0.500 661 620 68 66 0.508
1992 Chicago Cubs 67 63 0.515 448 438 65.9 64.1 0.507
1983 Chicago Cubs 59 73 0.447 556 551 66.9 65.1 0.507
1979 Chicago Cubs 71 60 0.542 602 580 65.8 65.2 0.502
1991 Chicago Cubs 65 64 0.504 568 589 64.4 64.6 0.500
1995 Chicago Cubs 58 58 0.500 554 525 57.5 58.5 0.495
2014 Chicago Cubs 61 76 0.445 523 578 67.9 69.1 0.495
1988 Chicago Cubs 66 66 0.500 526 525 64.9 67.1 0.492
2002 Chicago Cubs 56 79 0.415 591 641 66.4 68.6 0.492
1998 Chicago Cubs 76 62 0.551 703 670 66.4 71.6 0.481
1990 Chicago Cubs 62 68 0.477 556 617 62.4 67.6 0.480
2013 Chicago Cubs 57 78 0.422 521 577 64.8 70.2 0.480
1993 Chicago Cubs 64 69 0.481 579 607 63.7 69.3 0.479
1987 Chicago Cubs 66 64 0.508 606 636 62.2 67.8 0.478
1973 Chicago Cubs 64 69 0.481 523 551 63 70 0.474
1978 Chicago Cubs 66 65 0.504 524 561 60.5 70.5 0.462
2000 Chicago Cubs 58 75 0.436 647 718 61.4 71.6 0.462
1975 Chicago Cubs 62 74 0.456 587 675 61.2 74.8 0.450
1982 Chicago Cubs 58 75 0.436 554 585 59.7 73.3 0.449
1985 Chicago Cubs 62 65 0.488 502 538 56.9 70.1 0.448
1986 Chicago Cubs 55 75 0.423 539 630 57.9 72.1 0.445
2010 Chicago Cubs 56 77 0.421 577 664 58.1 74.9 0.437
2011 Chicago Cubs 59 78 0.431 553 659 59.7 77.3 0.435
1974 Chicago Cubs 54 75 0.419 520 656 53.9 75.1 0.418
1999 Chicago Cubs 54 77 0.412 627 769 53.8 77.2 0.411
1980 Chicago Cubs 51 77 0.398 484 557 51.9 76.1 0.406
2006 Chicago Cubs 54 79 0.406 568 694 53.6 79.4 0.403
1976 Chicago Cubs 60 72 0.455 518 621 52.9 79.1 0.401
1997 Chicago Cubs 55 82 0.401 570 647 54.2 82.8 0.396
2012 Chicago Cubs 51 80 0.389 494 603 51.6 79.4 0.394
1981 Chicago Cubs 26 49 0.347 255 345 25.9 49.1 0.345

I leave you with this:

espn-divisional-era-august242016

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  3. Smokestack Lightning

    Or it’s entirely possible they’ve already worked out an extension and haven’t said anything because they don’t want to distract from what’s happening on the field. With how close to the vest the ownership and front office has kept big stuff, it honestly wouldn’t surprise me.

    My first thought is “How the hell is re-upping Theo a distraction, it’s been more distracting that he’s not been extended.” But then, looking back, Theo has typically preferred to keep as low a profile as possible. So this may be true. He may think it’s bad optics to announce the almost-certain-to-be record-breaking extension while the season is still playing itself out. Or, could be the plan is he’s outta here if the Cubs win it all (and I wouldn’t blame him, it’s all downhill after that).

    Basically, after thinking it through, I’ve come to the conclusion it could go either way. Prove me wrong.

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  5. Steve H IN SLC

    In fact, I think it’s fairly clear that since about the midpoint of last season the Cubs have been, by far, the best team in baseball. Once Addison Russell and Kris Bryant got settled in and Kyle Schwarber got called up, I don’t see another team that compares too well against the Cubs.

    Yup. 130-65 in the regular season since last July 28, a couple of days after that Hamels no-hitter. .667 winning percentage.

    If we could somehow erase that horrible 5-15 stretch from June-July this year, the overall regular season record rises to 125-50.

    Where does the Cubs’ run differential rank among teams in the division era?

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  6. Author
    dmick89

    Steve H IN SLC: Where does the Cubs’ run differential rank among teams in the division era?

    I’ll look at that, but it’s difficult to compare. It’s not an apples to apples comparison since the run environment is different. I will look into it though.

    I think the ’98 Yankees went 125-50 including the playoffs. Best season I’ve ever seen.

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  8. uncle dave

    It’s reassuring to know that this team is better than the worst Cubs team on that list was bad. That kind of surprises me.

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