Baseball Prospectus has come out with their annual PECOTA projections and today we'll take a look at the Cubs pitchers. For what it's worth, the depth chart over there has them projected for 5th in the NL Central with 71 wins. Only one team is projected to be worse in the National League (69 wins): the Miami Marlins.
I'm fairly sure that 71 wins is pretty close to any online sportsbook. The Cubs aren't exactly primed for a strong season in 2014. It's another rebuilding year. The 2014 season will mark season number four of the Cubs Decade of Rebuilding Plan.
Here are the Cubs pitchers (I calculated the FIP).
| Name | G | GS | IP | H | HR | ERA | FIP | WARP |
| Travis Wood | 31 | 31 | 186 | 167 | 21 | 3.68 | 4.10 | 2.1 |
| Edwin Jackson | 31 | 31 | 186 | 182 | 21 | 4.15 | 4.00 | 0.9 |
| Jose Veras | 61 | 0 | 64 | 52 | 7 | 3.58 | 3.98 | 0.6 |
| Carlos Villanueva | 24 | 24 | 144 | 139 | 20 | 4.23 | 4.32 | 0.6 |
| Pedro Strop | 56 | 0 | 59 | 49 | 5 | 3.68 | 3.76 | 0.5 |
| Jake Arrieta | 21 | 21 | 111 | 103 | 13 | 4.27 | 4.35 | 0.5 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 11 | 11 | 58 | 58 | 7 | 4.00 | 4.21 | 0.5 |
| C.J. Edwards | 19 | 14 | 89 | 76 | 9 | 3.95 | 3.99 | 0.5 |
| Blake Parker | 51 | 0 | 54 | 45 | 6 | 3.74 | 3.88 | 0.4 |
| Daniel Bard | 31 | 2 | 37 | 29 | 4 | 3.61 | 4.16 | 0.3 |
| Kyuji Fujikawa | 23 | 0 | 25 | 22 | 3 | 3.55 | 3.81 | 0.2 |
| Michael Bowden | 31 | 3 | 51 | 46 | 6 | 3.91 | 4.30 | 0.2 |
| Kevin Gregg | 55 | 0 | 55 | 48 | 6 | 4.15 | 4.21 | 0.1 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 31 | 31 | 195 | 188 | 26 | 4.49 | 4.39 | 0.1 |
| Zac Rosscup | 19 | 0 | 20 | 17 | 2 | 3.99 | 3.96 | 0.1 |
| Justin Grimm | 25 | 25 | 137 | 137 | 14 | 4.31 | 4.03 | 0.1 |
| Wesley Wright | 33 | 0 | 35 | 32 | 4 | 4.19 | 4.21 | 0 |
| Hector Rodon | 61 | 0 | 64 | 63 | 9 | 4.29 | 4.30 | 0 |
| Chang-Yang Lim | 35 | 3 | 37 | 34 | 4 | 4.29 | 4.43 | 0 |
| Brooks Raley | 37 | 0 | 40 | 38 | 5 | 4.27 | 4.74 | 0 |
| Chris Rusin | 13 | 13 | 69 | 71 | 9 | 4.67 | 4.69 | 0 |
| James Russell | 61 | 0 | 64 | 65 | 10 | 4.45 | 4.61 | -0.1 |
| Arodys Vizcaino | 28 | 0 | 30 | 29 | 3 | 4.42 | 4.18 | -0.1 |
| Trey McNutt | 16 | 7 | 39 | 40 | 5 | 4.91 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| Pierce Johnson | 18 | 18 | 86 | 85 | 10 | 4.65 | 4.50 | -0.2 |
| Jonathon Sanchez | 14 | 14 | 76 | 67 | 11 | 4.69 | 4.84 | -0.3 |
| Neil Ramirez | 19 | 19 | 95 | 89 | 13 | 4.72 | 4.71 | -0.3 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada | 12 | 12 | 77 | 81 | 10 | 4.82 | 4.67 | -0.5 |
| Alberto Cabrera | 37 | 0 | 40 | 42 | 5 | 5.30 | 4.74 | -0.5 |
| Dillon Maples | 18 | 11 | 59 | 62 | 7 | 5.80 | 5.42 | -0.9 |
That's just sad. I'm fairly sure they're wrong on Samardzija. Something about PECOTA just doesn't like him, which was understandable a couple years ago. Nobody liked him and then the new front office promoted him. I think they did it to anger me, but turns out I was the fool. That happens sometimes. Probably a lot of times.
I like Travis Wood as much as the next guy, unless the next guy is related to him. Then I probably don't like him as much. Anyway, if he's the best starting pitcher on the team, you've likely got an awful pitching staff. PECOTA thinks the Cubs have just that.
Their bullpen could be fairly strong with ace relievers like Pedro Strop and Jose Veras wearing Cubs uniforms. There are a handful of teams that would be happy to boast they possess those two, but only the Cubs do. That's to their advantage right there. Throw in Wesley Wright or any other reliever they have and the Cubs bullpen might be mediocre.
Comments
That’s a really surprisingly low number for Samardzija. I also was never a big fan or believer of the guy but he’s been way better than I thought he would be.
From the last thread, Hamm’s had some great commercials with the Bear back then. I don’t think I ever drank one though.
cwolf, older than dirtQuote Reply
I’ll be curious to see how the ’14 Cubs get 0.6 WARP out of Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, and Kevin Gregg…
BVS, my dad drank HammsQuote Reply
@ BVS, my dad drank Hamms:
(dying laughing) Come to think of it, a lot of my friend’s dads drank Hamm’s back then so I probably did drink a few pilfered ones as a youth.
cwolf, older than dirtQuote Reply
@ cwolf, older than dirt:
Me too. What I remember is that they were a lot less potent than Mom’s martinis.
BVS, my dad drank HammsQuote Reply
Start at 2m15s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJ8cEuEgF-U?t=2m15s
BVS, my dad drank HammsQuote Reply
@ BVS, my dad drank Hamms:
My mom drank fucking Manhattans back then. I like my booze but those are horrible. Maybe she drank them to discourage young cwolf from sneaking sips.
cwolf, older than dirtQuote Reply
Is it possible we are underrating Alcantara? A MIF that can play good defense with 15-20 HR pop and 30+ SB at a great rate is pretty hard to find right?
He might be Bubbs number three prospect and he should maybe be opening day leadoff man
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ BVS, my dad drank Hamms:
Yeah, the winters are going to be hell I imagine. but its supposed to be a nice city besides that, I think.
Besides, I’ll just call OV Con a business expense!
My company makes forest gifs, so this won’t be a problem.
akabariQuote Reply
@ akabari:
I have a number of friends and relatives who have lived in MSP for varying lengths of time and to a person they loved it (other than the longer and colder winter vs. Chicago). Between visiting said friends and relatives and business trips there, I’ve probably been up there a couple dozen times and really enjoyed it.
cwolf, older than dirtQuote Reply
@ akabari:
@ cwolf, older than dirt:
Yeah, that’s what my friends from there say too, and my experience as a visitor. Also I noted the driving is far more civil and closer to the speed limit than other places I’ve lived, especially compared to SE Michigan.
I was at a conference in MSP last August. Very nice. Train ride from Chicago was good too.
BVS, my dad drank HammsQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
2013: 15 HR + 30 SB — Carlos Gomez, Mike Trout, Jason Kipnis*
2012: Gomez, Trout, Ryan Braun, BJ Upton, Jimmy Rollins*
2011: Upton, Braun, Rollins*, Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ian Kinsler*
*played MIF a majority of games
15-20 HR + 30 SB is pretty rare anywhere. MVP McCutcheon was 21HR 27SB
BVS, my dad drank HammsQuote Reply
dmick, you were quite the hellion as a high schooler, eh?
BVS, my dad drank HammsQuote Reply
Down the rabbit hole:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ofvgxpsEs8
uncle daveQuote Reply
I actually recall that Dunston catch and throw.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMrjRRFV4IQ
uncle daveQuote Reply
Roan’s mullet/shirt game is airtight. Highlight of my childhood: Roan once called the third baseman of the Phillies “Mike Shit” on the air. (He was the sports guy at the CBS affiliate in Champaign prior to getting the WGN gig.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAKkHxkkCyA
uncle daveQuote Reply
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdFqKgOwwT8
uncle daveQuote Reply
I have three points to add to this discussion:
1) Harry Caray was good at broadcasting
2) Hamm’s (or maybe everybody in the seventies) was bad at advertising
3) Theo was hired in October 2011, so isn’t it more meaningful to call it the third season of the rebuild?
They way I see it, since being good in 2009 when the Ricketts bought the club, the Cubs had two zombie years where they attempted to breathe continued life into the old team, followed by a srs rebuild starting with Thoyer from the start of the 2012 season. So 2014 is season number three of the Thoyer rebuild and season number five of the Ricketts’s rebuild if you give them credit/blame for Hendry’s zombie-time.
fang2415Quote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Mel Hall: The scoop was “Phenom.”
Not.
A reminder for our 7 top 100 prospects
Dave, you got a lot of camera time at 4:26. Nice stocking cap.
BVS, my dad drank HammsQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/02/05/ranking-the-rotations-2014-edition/
Cubs aren’t last!
WaLiQuote Reply
Eat your heart out, Minnesota
MylesQuote Reply
fang2415 wrote:
When I wrote the comment I was thinking more about Baez being drafted in 2011 and considering the Cubs farm system wouldn’t nearly be what it is without him, it’s fair to say the rebuild began four seasons ago. Furthermore, the Cubs didn’t do shit after the 2010 season so they certainly weren’t trying to improve. In fact, they really didn’t do anything noteworthy after 2010 either.
dmick89, Sweatpants GuruQuote Reply
I guess it’s mock day for this week. I’ll do CHI because I know there are a few fans here and SF because I want to. Beyond that, just let me know if you want one for another team.
CHI:
14 DT AARON DONALD PITTSBURGH
51 S ED REYNOLDS STANFORD – Smarter Dashon Goldson
82 DE MARCUS SMITH LOUISVILLE – Tweener edge rusher
113 DE JACKSON JEFFCOAT TEXAS – BPA. Can never have too much pass rush.
144 CB ROSS COCKRELL DUKE – Relentless, physical CB.
Get rid of Peppers, grab a FS in FA and this draft fixes that defense.
Like You CareQuote Reply
SF:
30 WR ODELL BECKHAM JR. LSU – Starting to feel like this will be the pick in real life.
56 S JIMMIE WARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS – Allows Eric Reid to play SS and vastly improves deep coverage.
61 CB KYLE FULLER VIRGINIA TECH – Makes SF’s a top-2 secondary in terms of athleticism.
77 WR DONTE MONCRIEF MISSISSIPPI – Feel like he’d be a fringe first rounder any other year.
94 QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO EASTERN ILLINOIS
125 C MARCUS MARTIN USC
158 S TRE BOSTON NORTH CAROLINA
Feels weird to draft so many skill positions.
Like You CareQuote Reply
I know most of you don’t care about football, but I’m interested in your opinion about what SF should do with Kaepernick.
On one hand, his athleticism is off the charts. Arm strength is probably the best in the NFL. Maybe the fastest in the NFL (though I think Cam is a better runner). Improving his progressions, though the SF offense still gives him a lot of one-read routes. Improving mechanics.
On the other hand, he still relies too much on athleticism. A little too confident in his ability (the two INTs in the NFC Championship were correct reads but poor throws). Still fairly raw for his age.
There are no FA QBs out there this year, so you’d have to draft a replacement. There are about six QBs in this draft that I’d feel comfortable supplanting Kaepernick with next season (one of them was in the mock above) and a handful of others I think could do it in 2015.
You know what you’re getting with him and you know he still has room to grow. Would you offer a big contract or look to replace him?
Like You CareQuote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/assume-the-position-c.html
MylesQuote Reply