Jon Heyman is hearing that negotiations between the Cubs and second overall pick Kris Bryant are not progressing well. Bryant, the slugging junior third baseman out of the University of San Diego, is said to be seeking in excess of $6.7 million to sign, which is the slot value allotted for the pick, whereas the Cubs are offering in the neighborhood of $6 million. As context, first overall pick Mark Appel, who the Cubs had rated higher than Bryant on their draft board, agreed to $6.34 million, which was approximately $1.5 million below his slot value. Third overall pick Jonathan Gray signed for $4.8 million, also below his slot value of $5.6 million.
Crisis Averted
For the last week or so in the comments, I’ve been harping on the importance of the Cubs signing the remainder of their top 10 picks at no more than $192 thousand above their slot values. Under the new CBA, the first ten rounds are the only ones that count in determining a team’s overall draft budget. The slot values of those picks is combined, and the team is not allowed to exceed 105% of that amount in signing not only those players, but also difficult-to-sign high school players later in the draft. As such, It has become commonplace for teams to select three or four college seniors in rounds 5-10, sign them very cheaply (on the order of $10k), and put the savings toward other picks. If the 105% limit is breached, the club forfeits their first round pick in the next year’s draft, an extremely stiff penalty, to say the least.
I can only imagine that during the draft, Bryant advisor Scott Boras was salivating as he watched the Cubs’ draft play out. Only one of their top ten picks was a “signable” college senior, tenth-rounder Zach Godley, and a number of highly- regarded players were in the mix. As it turned out, third-rounder Jacob Hannemann, fourth-rounder Tyler Skulina, and tenth-rounder Charcer Burks required overslot deals to sign. If the remainder of the top ten didn’t come in significantly underslot, Bryant would have placed himself in an extremely strong negotiating position. You see, the 105% limit for the Cubs comes in at $528 thousand if Bryant signs, but only $192 thousand if he doesn’t. That means there was a very real chance that Bryant could have held hostage the Cubs’ first round pick in 2014 by threatening to go back to school. (Though it should be noted that even in that hypothetical, the Cubs would receive the third overall pick in 2014 as compensation for the Bryant loss. They would have been looking at only #3 overall, rather than #3 and #9, or wherever their natural pick ends up. The draft is confusing. Deal with it.) As it turns out, the Cubs have avoided that eventuality, coming in at only $187 thousand over for picks two through ten. Kudos to the front office for realizing what was at stake and making it work. It’s nice to root for a predictably competent organization.
What’s At Stake Now
Kris Bryant is currently lacking in any sort of significant leverage. He has the option of returning to school, but that’s always a risk for an athlete. Returning players slump and get dissected by scouts. Any injury could be devastating. Younger players emerge and rise up draft boards. For the Cubs, the 2014 draft is considered to be a strong one, and having two top ten picks certainly wouldn’t be the worst thing. What they do risk is not having a first round pick for a year, a significant loss of development time and progression that every team seeks to avoid. Also at risk is the ability to sign later picks at greater than slot value. On draft day, twelfth-round high school pitcher Trevor Clifton let slip that his agreement with the Cubs was for approximately $470 thousand above slot value. For that to happen, the Cubs need Bryant to sign for at least $130 thousand below slot. Other potential signees like high 24th-rounder Tyler Alamo could be casualties if Bryant requires more money than expected.
Prediction
My guess is that Bryant signs for approximately the same amount as Appel, in the range of $6.2- $6.5 million. My guess is that Clifton also signs. While Bryant has been relatively tight-lipped about negotiations, the UK-committed Clifton told a reporter that he hated school… so that’s not going to help his negotiating position. All in all, the Cubs may lose on a late-round pick or two that they expected to sign, but that’s a relatively minor setback compared to getting Bryant in the fold. That said, the deadline is July 12th, and with Boras involved, I expect that it will go down to the wire.
Comments
Great write-up. Thanks for following this so closely, it is actually interesting as opposed to the team the Cubs put on the field.
WaLiQuote Reply
Interesting. I would assume having the choice between Bryant and losing the pick next year, then, the choice is to keep the pick? They can always find someone else, possibly better.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
They are mostly out of the woods in terms of losing a pick, unless they announce an overslot deal on a late-rounder before they reach an agreement with Bryant.
I don’t think any org wants to defer their first round pick for a year, unless the benefits are huge, like knowing that a Bryce Harper-type would be there for your pick the next year, which almost never happens. I think the Cubs would gladly sacrifice Clifton if it meant bringing in Bryant. Don’t think that will happen, though. It would be a big risk for him to go back to school. If he drops even to number 5 overall, that’s lost money and a year of development for him.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Oh, I see. Sacrifice of the others. I take that to mean Clifton isn’t signed yet? Surely they can’t back out of another deal.
joshQuote Reply
AKA “Boras/Bryant leaked to Jon Heyman that “negotiations are not progressing well” to put pressure on Cubs.”
Whether the Cubs actually make decisions on figurative ideas created by the media like “pressure” remains to be seen.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ josh:
Clifton hasn’t been officially announced, and Callis hasn’t said anything, which I think tells you all you need to know. I think they agreed upon a number on draft day, but nothing will be signed until the Cubs know that they are not risking a first round pick as a result of the contract.
GWQuote Reply
JonKneeV wrote:
yep
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
That makes sense.
joshQuote Reply
I thinking Bryant disappointing anyway.
Gerund PerryQuote Reply
@ Gerund Perry:
Why?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Gerund Perry:
Most prospects are. That doesn’t mean you don’t try to get the best one.
joshQuote Reply
Great coverage of the draft, GW. I think the Cubs should hold their offer at around $6 million. I just don’t see Bryant returning to college. Best case scenario is he’s the top pick next year and gets about what Appel got this year. Worst case scenario is that he doesn’t get picked first and ends up with less of a signing bonus than he’d have gotten this year.
There’s almost no chance he comes out ahead by returning to school.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
This.
I offer $6M and dare him to go back to school and put up Ruthian numbers two years in a row.
GBTSQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Except not being drafted by the Cubs. (dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
That’s a good point. (dying laughing)
The more I think about this, the more I might even be inclined to offer something around $5.5 million. It’s still almost certainly more than he’d get next year.
dmick89Quote Reply
So, the day off worked?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The Cubs really Cubbed that scoring opportunity.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Jon Heyman doesn’t have a good record of credibility.
mobile svbQuote Reply
@ mobile svb:
Is it any worse than the other guys?
dmick89Quote Reply
Nice to see Rizzo doing some damage the past few games.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
So Tom Tunney sucks.
rice in limboQuote Reply
Aramis is gathering numbers today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I haven’t kept score, exactly, but it seems to me that he passes on rumors a lot faster than others, and then gets caught on them being baloney, or plants, as indicated above.
Brian Bogusevic has an ugly batting stance.
SVBQuote Reply
Kevin Gregg is looking like Kevin Gregg today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Bat Castro 8th. He will learn to deal with being pitched around and maybe how to take a walk. Or he will see pitches to hit, since no one wants men on for the mighty Cubs bats in the 9th spot.
JQuote Reply
Gregg “saves”…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ SVB:
I hear you, Skip, but what are the alternative explanations in this situation? I mean, if Heyman is just parroting a rumor, how far could it possibly be from the truth? If Bryant wasn’t asking for more than the Cubs were offering, he would be signed already. The most likely scenario, from where I stand, is JKV suggested. The Boras/Bryant camp isn’t getting what they want, they’ve given up on the possibility of holding the 2014 first round pick for ransom, and are resorting to a leak to increase public pressure on the Cubs to pony up. What else could possibly be going on here?
GWQuote Reply
http://vine.co/v/hzB3eZAaqtQ
GWQuote Reply
Bryant camp is blowing smoke. Trying to drum up something, I guess. Appel maybe gained $3 mil by going back to school, and he went 8th last year. Bryant could jump to 1st next year, but for what, $1 mil more and to play for the Marlins? It sounds like he’s hardly a sure #1 if he goes back, and if he did he’d certainly have no legs to stand on in the 2014 draft. And it would set his FA clock back too, since a year in the minors does Bryant way more good than it does for Appel. Bryant/Boras know he has zero leverage and are hoping that playing tough to get may get a slight budge from the Cubs.
JQuote Reply
@ J:
Even if he went 1st overall, he’s still looking at taking as much below slot as Appel did this year since he’d then be a college senior. I think the Cubs could offer $5.5 million and Bryant will sign. He could maybe get another million next year on the off chance he’s selected first overall.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
His swing, his name and his personality.
Gerund PerryQuote Reply
@ josh:
Of course you trying to get the best one, but value being important too.
Gerund PerryQuote Reply
methinks Gerund Perry is Ryno.
dmick89Quote Reply
Vote Baez into the Futures Game: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/all_star/y2013/fut/ballot.jsp
He’s going up against Carlos Correa so there’s some decent competition.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
New Shit
MylesQuote Reply