Skip the Mongoose, who hates twitter rumors.
Schedule
The 2013 MLB Draft starts at 6 pm CT, with coverage on MLBN kicking off an hour before that. The first two rounds take place today, with 3-10 coming tomorrow, and the remainder on Saturday. If this year is anything like last year, top players will go in the first few rounds, followed by a bunch of signable college seniors around rounds 5-10, followed by some more interesting names 11+.
We will keep you updated with analysis on all the Cubs picks throughout the draft.
Number 1 Overall
Still lots of uncertainty about tonight’s draft, as no one is certain what the Astros will do with the first overall pick. I think it’s safe to say that at the very least, the ‘stros are trying to use all of the time available to leverage a lower price tag out of a pick. There are rumblings that they will try to make a run at Sean Manea with pick #40, which would probably require someone to take a discount at #1.
GMs and agents think Luhnow will wait until at least 4 to decide Appel, Gray or Moran
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) June 6, 2013
Rumblings #Astros might be team to pop Manaea, at No. 40. Not sure what cost would be but they have $9.2 mil for top 2 picks. #mlbdraft
— Jim Callis (@jimcallisBA) June 6, 2013
That said, I don’t think it’s a given that they pass on anyone. In Jim Callis’s updated mock this morning, he has them nabbing the big hopped-up righty from Oklahoma.
For now, I’m sticking with Oklahoma righthander Jonathan Gray as the No. 1 choice. There’s no indication that his positive drug test for Adderall will affect the stock of BA’s top-rated prospect, and I’m told it’s not an issue with Houston.
Personally, I’m hoping they take Colin Moran, as has been rumored in the past, though Moran is undoubtedly a better fit for the Cardinals. That way the Cubs will have their choice of the “big three” prospects: Gray, Appel, and Bryant.
Appel to the Cubs?
Callis also passes along the rumor that the Cubs have been talking to Appel about a deal
There was a lot of buzz Wednesday evening that the Cubs were closing in on a deal with Appel at No. 2, which could mean: a) he’d subsequently try to scare off Houston; b) he’d see if the Astros could trump Chicago’s offer; or c) no agreement is imminent and this is just an attempt to increase his leverage.
My guess is that this is a leak from Appel’s camp in an attempt to pressure the Astros to pony up.
Possible Surprises
Peter Gammons reported last night that the Rockies may go with high school first baseman Dominic Smith at #3 overall.
Draft is so unpredictable that it appears the ‘Stros and Cubs @1-2 are in quandaries, and teams think the Rockies @3 go 1B Dominic Smith.
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) June 6, 2013
Kiley McDaniel thinks this is just a leverage ploy
To be clear I’ve been on a plane most of the day & just talked to a scout that heard the Smith rumor. Sounds like leverage ploy to me.
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) June 6, 2013
I think the Cubs are the only high pick I haven’t heard a below slot rumor about. it’s only good business to let one get out, real or not.
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) June 6, 2013
I don’t mind the Cubs staying out of that game. I’ve spent enough time in my life worrying that the Cubs will go cheap in the draft. Seems to me there’s plenty of other things the club could be doing today, like figuring out who will be available at pick 41.
Pick 41
It’s really difficult to project anything past the first 10 or so picks in the draft. Keep in mind that last year, after taking Alberto Almora #3 overall, the Cubs took 7 straight pitchers. I don’t think it’s safe to bet on that happening again, especially with the possibility that the Cubs take a big arm first overall, but the minor league pitching is still truly awful, so it could go either way. Cubs Den has a post up with some possible pitching targets for round two. My advice is to watch for surprising names that drop out of round one. Keep BA’s top 500 handy.
Soundtrack For Stat-Lovers who Like Pavement
Comments
keith law is chatting now
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/48183
GWQuote Reply
Law puts Cubs’ chances of taking Appel or Gray at 90%
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-is-matt-cain-struggling/
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Only a 90% chance that the Cubs will take the Top 1 or 2 guy with the 2nd overall pick?
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi wrote:
If Gray is gone and Appel says “7.5 million no less” and Bryant says “sure, 4 sounds great” the Cubs would think about it (and probably still go with Appel)
MylesQuote Reply
McDaniel has Appel to the Cubs if the ‘Stros take either Moran or Gray.
http://sbb.scout.com/2/1297610.html
GWQuote Reply
Law pointed out in his chat that the team that drafts Appel pretty much has to agree to terms with him before the draft, since as a college senior, he really has no signing deadline. That squares with the reports of the cubs negotiating with him last night.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Huh.. Can it go into next year? What would happen if Appel doesn’t sign with the Cubs (or whatever team that drafts him) this year. I thought the Cubs would get a #2 next year and lose that slots money this year. What would happen to Appel? Would he be a free agent?
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
pretty sure he goes back into the draft next year. i’m not sure whether he could sign after the deadline date, though.
GWQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I’d go with Bryant in that case.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ GW:
That’s what I was thinking when I read that rumor this morning.
I agree in that I hope Gray, Appel and Bryant are all available. This way we can all analyze this pick down the road to see how well it turned out.
dmick89Quote Reply
WaLi wrote:
IIRC, players who are drafted but have no remaining college eligibility have until one week before the next Rule 4 Draft to sign. They’re not on the same timetable as players who can return to college.
Any player who is drafted but doesn’t sign is eligible for the next Rule 4 draft, and the team that picked him is barred from picking him again unless the player consents. I think you’re only a free agent once you go undrafted in a Rule 4 draft in which you’re eligible.
GBTSQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
so i guess the designated slot value stays with him up until that point.
GWQuote Reply
That’s how that whole J.D. Drew loophole went down way back when. He played 4 years of college, got drafted by the Phillies, didn’t like their offer, so he went and played Independent League Ball for a year. The idea was that he’d be an unrestricted free agent by the time the next draft came around, because (a) he’d be ineligible for the draft since he signed a professional contract and (b) the Phillies would lose exclusive negotiating rights the week before the next draft.
MLB closed the Independent League loophole before the next draft so he was eligible again, but I’m pretty sure teams still have exclusive negotiating rights with players with no college eligibility basically right up until the next Rule 4 Draft.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
right, hochevar’s situation ended up more or less the same way (playing in indie ball, going back to the draft). i just wasn’t sure what would happen with his slot money under the new system; makes sense that he would be subject to it’s restrictions up until he enters the draft again.
GWQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
I’d assume it’s the same as when they had the draft and follow. You had up until the moment the draft started to sign any picks from the previous draft. Most of the guys you wanted to sign were signed fairly quickly, but there was always a few players you drafted with the intention of not signing. You just wanted to see how they progressed.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
This could be another advantage to drafting Appel. Since you have to be sure he’ll sign, you should be able to get him signed quickly and get him some low minors experience this season. I wouldn’t expect a Mark Pawelek type situation (Cubs announced his signing before their 2nd round pick), but I’d think you could get him signed in the next couple weeks.
dmick89Quote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Lake is playing for Iowa tonight.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Basically, none of the prospects stand out so much to be a lock, then?
joshQuote Reply
Ian Stewart moaned about wanting a release on Twitter this morning.
Junior Lake promoted to AAA.
Be surprised if these two events are unconnected.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ josh:
I think Harry saw this draft class as (1) tighter 1-10 than most evaluators and (2) deeper on the position player side than most evaluators.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I’m still hoping the Cubs trade for one of those CB picks. Im kinda hoping they’d ask to keep it hush hush until they’ve made their first pick…I guess it’s not happening though
NateQuote Reply
new shit
GWQuote Reply