Draft Coverage
The 2013 MLB Draft kicks off at 6pm on MLB Network. The first two rounds are tonight. Pre-draft coverage is already underway. Unfortunately, Greg Amsinger is hosting rather than Brian Kenny. And as always, it seems, the guys who really know what’s going on are more or less marginalized. Peter Gammons, Harold Reynolds, and John Hart are at the main table. More Jim Callis, please. Can’t argue with the video highlights, though.
I’lll update this thread with analysis of the Cubs’ picks at #2 and #41 as the night progresses. OV draft archives are here.
Late Breaking News
Not much, really. Jonathan Mayo mentions that Kohl Stewart’s name has cropped up in the conversation for 1-1.
Deja vu. Two hours before #mlbdraft, no concrete idea of what #Astros will do at No. 1. Killing me!
— Jim Callis (@jimcallisBA) June 6, 2013
It will be interesting to see how seriously the Cubs take the position player over pitching philosophy. I’m guessing not very, and they end up with one of the college pitchers, and things play out mostly as has been predicted. Pitch f/x guru Harry Pavlidis, on the other hand thinks that the first 10 picks could play out very differently than everyone is expecting (h/t MO):
@moutfielder @bleachernation I don’t know the order, but I expect Moran, Bryant, Frazier, Kohl and Appel to go in the top 5.
— Harry Pavlidis (@harrypav) June 6, 2013
UPDATES
1. The Astros go with Appel. Oh, well.
2. Shocker! The Cubs passed on the live-armed Gray and went with Kris Bryant, the powerful third basemen from the University of San Diego.
Kris Bryant
From BA:
Bryant has shown huge raw power since his high school days in Las Vegas, and has blossomed into college baseball’s premier slugger. He posted a 1.081 OPS and nine homers as a freshmen, then a 1.154 OPS and 14 long balls as a sophomore, but he has taken his game to new heights as a junior, posting a 1.357 OPS and 25 home runs (seven more than any other Division I player) through 49 games. Opponents have pitched him very carefully, but he has remained patient, posting a 56-31 walk-strikeout mark. Bryant’s best tool is his plus-plus righthanded power, allowing him to launch towering shots over the light standard in left field or hit balls over the fence to the opposite field. He has adopted a wider base and a simpler approach at the plate this year, and he has impressed scouts with his ability to turn on inside fastballs or go the other way with sliders over the outer half. His plate discipline and ability to consistently barrel up a variety of pitches make him a safe bet to be at least an average hitter, and many scouts think he’ll be better than that. Bryant’s arm gives him another above-average tool. His athleticism gives him at least a chance to stick at third, although he’ll need plenty more repetitions to master the position. Some scouts project him as a prototypical right fielder. He has average speed and can be faster under way, and he has shown good instincts in right and center.
Comments
Updated BA top 50
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/updated-2013-draft-top-50/
GWQuote Reply
Jim Callis’s updated mock
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-4-1-one-more-last-chance/
GWQuote Reply
Apparently Kaplan tweets that the Cubs might draft Bryant. Thoughts? I still hope they end up with Appel
NateQuote Reply
I really want Bryant.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ Nate:
looks like that originated with danny knobler at CBS.
GWQuote Reply
I bet it’s Gray. Got a feeling
MylesQuote Reply
Gammons pronounced it a-PELL
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I gotta admit, I like the Cubs drafting early in the 1st round. However, I very much look forward to the years in which they draft very low in the 1st round. Hopefully the Cubs will eventually be drafting in the upper 20s on a consistent basis. Except for some arb picks. Lots of them, please.
dmick89Quote Reply
Law says Appel to Houston.
sitrickQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
Keith Law says Appel to houston. fuck. that’s why Cubs go Bryant
NateQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
The Baseball America logo font has to be the most mis-matched design choice ever. There is nothing about that Gael font that says “baseball” or “America” to me.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
My top 3 would be Appel, Gray, Bryant. I think that’s the order in which they’re drafted unless Colorado throws a curve.
dmick89Quote Reply
Come onnnnnnnnnnn Bryant.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ Nate:
I think they take a pitcher. Considering how shitty the Cubs pitching is in the minors, I think there would have to be quite a difference in talent to take Bryant. Not that I won’t be happy. I will be. You can easily argue he’s the best talent in the draft. He needs a lot more work than Appel and Gray, but that 70 to 80 power is special.
dmick89Quote Reply
Houston is on the clock? (dying laughing) Haven’t they been on the clock since early September?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Yea, I really hope they go pitcher. I’m just partial to Appel because I think he’s the best based on almost nothing (dying laughing). Yea it will be fine whoever they get. Maybe if they get Bryant they can trade Soler for David Price or some shit. I just want them to get good players, and compared to the Hendry years, at least I’m not nervous we’re getting a nasty case of mono in the first round.
NateQuote Reply
someone said first pick is 6:11, so I guess that’s when they’ll announce
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I like when they showed their draft room when the clock started and no one was doing anything except one guy on the phone, probably telling their guy in the studio who the pick is.
Four minutes of our lives gone.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Nate:
I like Appel because he seems to be the closest to the big leagues. Gray isn’t far behind. I worry about Bryant needing several years in the minors due to the skills he needs to improve. I think it’s relatively safe to expect that Appel sees the big leagues late next year. Gray too.
dmick89Quote Reply
GWQuote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
That was funny. Looked like half the room was watching Netflix.
dmick89Quote Reply
Appel
dmick89Quote Reply
bummer
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Agreed.
dmick89Quote Reply
I really don’t want to leave this first round with the Cubs top pitching prospect still being Arodys Vizcaino and Dillon Maples. Pierce Johnson is off to a fantastic start. Pretty sure Dave and I rated him higher than the Maples, but he doesn’t have the highest ceiling.
dmick89Quote Reply
Astros are a “storied franchise”?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
wish they had a chance to pass on him, at least.
GWQuote Reply
They still don’t know? Flip a coin.
dmick89Quote Reply
Dammit, Astros
BerseliusQuote Reply
More from Harry, via Twitter:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Interesting. I really expected a pitcher. Very surprised.
dmick89Quote Reply
Law says Bryant to Cubs.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I was hoping pitching. I bet Ian Stewart is pissed
Not Stationary WaLiQuote Reply
Bryant’s going to have to change his number (23).
Suburban kidQuote Reply
This makes the left side of the infield a little clogged. I assume Baez will move to 3rd at some point. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs move Bryant to RF.
dmick89Quote Reply
post updated with bryant’s BA blurb
GWQuote Reply
GW, Huge thanks for doing this. I was disappointed when I finally realized I wouldn’t be able to do it. I’ve always really liked this day so thanks for picking up the slack.
dmick89Quote Reply
So psyched.
sitrickQuote Reply
I approve. I don’t know shit, but I approve. His numbers this year were ridiculous. Does anyone track things like OPS+ for college baseball? I wouldn’t be surprised if his numbers were Bondsian. (Not that it means he’ll be Bonds, just that they’re that ridiculous.)
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
I really liked this post by Crawfish Boxes on Bryant:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013-mlb-draft/2013/6/5/4392336/2013-mlb-draft-profile-kris-bryant-3b-1b-of-san-diego
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
My guess is Cubs will keep Bryant at 3B for as long as they can, but they actually project him as a corner OF.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=kris-bryant
GWQuote Reply
Harold Reynolds is kind of a dolt.
I don’t think there’s much to separate Grey and Bryant, and am happy that they at least got one of the two. They were suppoosedly the highest-upside college pitcher and player, so I guess it just boils down to how you evaluate player development/injury risk. Tough to go wrong here, though.
uncle daveQuote Reply
In 2013, Bryant had a BB/K ratio of 0.6. He walked more than he struck out. His OBP was .500 and OPS 1360 without an absurd BABIP (.292). This, after the move to wooden bats.
I don’t care where they play him. Those are eye-popping numbers.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
I don’t think you can say he’s the best hitting prospect on the team, but I think you can say he has the best statistical track record, for whatever little that’s worth w.r.t. prospects. And unlike many of the other Cubs prospects, this guy has very good command of the strike zone.
I like.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ GW:
I like the .295 BABIP with a .340 BA he had this year. (Not from a scouting perspective, but just as an oddity.)
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Did I overhear him say Appel will be in MLB by July?
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
After hearing Appel talk all jesus on tv, i’m less disappointed. Hopefully the Cubs can hit a shit-ton in 2015.
NateQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
that was harold reynolds, feel free to ignore
NateQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
GWQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
@ GW:
(dying laughing)
I’m not sure what the guy adds to any conversation about baseball. Maybe he doesn’t know it’s June already.
uncle daveQuote Reply
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/scott-miller/22356953/budding-slugger-kris-bryant-brings-scouts-back-to-glaus-werth
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I don’t love the pick but you almost can’t draft for need this high. I think it’s clear that either the Cubs value Bryant more than most, or that Gray values himself more than the Cubs do.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I wanted Appel, but I’m fine with this pick. Unless it’s someone who’s as close as Appel is to the majors anyway, BPA is probably more important. The Cubs can trade some of their glut of bats for arms when they need to anyway, and have $$ to pay for FA pitching.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I think in baseball you almost always have to go with the best available. There’s so much uncertainty between draft day and the time a guy is scheduled to reach the majors that it’s difficult to even know what your needs three or four years down the road will be. That might not be the case in other sports, though I admit a bias towards best available even in something like the NFL, where guys play immediately.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Bryant: “I think they want me at 3rd base”
GWQuote Reply
“I changed my approach a little this year. The biggest thing I did coming into the year was just focus on the mistake pitch that pitchers are going to throw. I realized that I wasn’t going to get too much to hit…but I think I did a good job all year of just hitting that pitch that came over the white.”
GWQuote Reply
GW wrote:
I just blue myself prematurely.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
Here are Bryant’s grades from ESPN (I would assume that Keith Law is largely responsible for these)
Skill: Present, Future
Hitting: 45, 45
Power: 70, 70
Plate Discipline: 50, 55
Running Speed: 40, 40
Fielding Range: 45, 45
Arm Strength: 55, 55
And the scouting report
dmick89Quote Reply
Myles wrote:
I’m perfectly happy with the pick. Like GW, I’d have preferred the Cubs have their choice of Appel, Gray and Bryant. I think it’s fairly clearly they wanted Appel and ended up taking a bit longer to make the choice than the 5 minutes they were allowed. They were probably surprised Appel was taken and were flipping coins on the other two. Since Appel was off the board, I think you have to be pretty happy with the pick. The Cubs think he’s better than Gray and that’s good enough for me.
I like it even though I really wanted to leave this 1st round with a better pitching prospect atop the Cubs rankings than Vizcaino and Maples. Pierce Johnson has probably separated himself at this point anyway.
dmick89Quote Reply
So if Bryant stays at 3rd (and I’d assume he will for now), he’ll probably start this year in Boise or Peoria after he signs. Could be Daytona if they promote Baez.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
(dying laughing) I just assume Baez is a 3rd baseman. I know he’s currently playing SS so nevermind. Just can’t get over the fact he’s playing SS. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing) Bryant thinks he can play in the bugs right now, “but will leave it up to the Cubs”
Berselius37Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I forgot if someone asked this…but do you think Baez could handle 2B?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
He probably could play in the bugs. Whatever that is. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Is that like the Bugs Bunny League?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I would assume so since he’s currently playing SS.
dmick89Quote Reply
new shit
GWQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
yeah. it’s a really shitty story.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply