2013 MLB Draft: Jonathan Gray Tests Positive for Adderall

In Commentary And Analysis, News And Rumors by GW90 Comments

jonathangray

Does Adderall Add to the Fastball?

Two days ago, the news broke that Jonathan Gray was one of two players to test positive for Adderall in tests administered by MLB to the top 200 propects in the draft. Adderall is an amphetamine. There is a decent chance (I would say in the neighborhood of one in three) that Gray is selected by the Cubs with the second overall pick tomorrow, which makes me curious about this incident. Two observations:

ONE

The history of PEDs in MLB is littered with folks who convinced themselves that a particular drug would, in fact, have no (or even a negative) effect on player performance. In the early 90s, old-school commentators would routinely tell us that building muscle was a recipe for disaster, it couldn’t enhance hand-eye coordination and it made players less flexible and more injury prone. That reasoning may sound silly now, but trust me that this was a strongly-held belief by many for a number of years. More recently, a number of analytically minded folks have taken the position that steroids help to build muscle, but not fast-twitch muscles or lower body muscles which are necessary in baseball. This site is perhaps the best known proponent of that argument. I would also lump the “HGH isn’t scientifically proven to help” theory in with this school of thought. I’m aware of both these old-school and new-school “steroids don’t help” theories, and think they are probably wrong, just for the record.​

On the other hand, starting pitchers on speed? I find that bizarre. I was always under the impression that the historical use of greenies in baseball was primarily by position players dealing with the daily grind, to aid their reaction times when stepping up to the plate. Maybe also relievers, who were used more frequently in the past, and relied upon intensity and getting “up” for their the few batters they would have to face. Starting pitchers, though, have to pace themselves for long outings and are used on a regular schedule. What say you, overly-medicated, misanthropic readers? Does the use of speed by starting pitchers make sense? Was he perhaps just trying to cut weight to make himself more attractive to pro scouts?

TWO

I have exactly one friend who currently attends college. He was completely shocked when I told him that I had never used Adderall. In his opinion, everyone in college uses it during exam season, or when they have a big paper, due, or whenever else they need to actually accomplish something academically. Granted, he attends an SEC school (don’t make me retire, OV), but his impression was that it’s use is nearly universal. Is it possible that Jonathan Gray was just cramming for finals? If anything, the use makes Gray seem a little dumb; he should have known this test was coming. Other than that, I don’t see how this test should dissuade the Cubs from picking him. Keith Law has mentioned that he hears Theo prefers Gray to Mark Appel, and if that’s the case, I don’t think there is a reason to pass on him with the #2 pick.

 

Random Draft Notes

  • The Draft starts tomorrow and runs through Saturday. We at OV will have complete “analysis” of all the Cubs picks, so stay tuned. Also check out the archives for previous takes on the top prospects.
  • I have previously noted that some scouts think Appel could feasibly pitch in the Major Leagues this September. For those who were skeptical of such an aggressive timetable, note that not one but two college pitchers from the 2012 draft are currently in big league rotations. Kevin Gausman (#4 overall) has started three times for the Orioles, and Michael Wacha (#19) twice for the Cards. I’ll grant that the Cubs are likely to be less aggressive than either of these two contenders, but Appel is at least as advanced as either of those two pitchers.
  • Keith Law’s latest podcast, in which he interviews Jim Callis regarding the draft, is worth a listen. Both recount the horrors of having to analyze the shocking Hayden Simpson pick on live TV.

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Comments

  1. WaLi

    Lump me into the group of people who never took Adderall in college, but had a friend who did and said it was common.

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  2. WaLi

    I see no reason to pass up on Gray just because he tested positive for Adderall. Would the Cubs have an opportunity to be able to pay him under slot because of this?

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  3. Aisle424

    For me, I personally order my preference on the picks as 1) Bryant 2) Gray 3) Appel.

    I’ll be fine with any of the three, as I think they are all worthy of the second pick in the draft, but those are my preferences. I like freaky talent in draft choices but I also understand the value of a more polished, “safer” choice, which is why I like Bryant. He has the freaky factor with the 80 power and he’s a college hitter and those tend to be “safer” choices statistically.

    With the pitchers, you get the freak or the polish, so for me, the tie breaker is the freaky 100 mph arm-strength of Gray over Appel’s longer track record and depth of repertoire.

    I keep seeing that the Astros will take Appel, so I’m likely to be happy tomorrow either way, but if I had my way, I’d pick Bryant and then load up on arms later.

    I don’t know how I’ll feel if they go and take someone other than one of these three. I trust this front office, but if they don’t pick one of those three, I won’t know what to think about it. It would be like if the Cubs chose someone other than Teixiera or Prior in 2001 with their 2nd pick.

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  4. Author
    GW

    @ WaLi:

    keith law (and dmick) have brought up this possibility. jim callis thinks it’s unlikely. from what he hears, most clubs aren’t swayed by this report

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  5. Author
    GW

    Aisle424 wrote:

    For me, I personally order my preference on the picks as 1) Bryant 2) Gray 3) Appel.

    interesting. i don’t have strong opinions. i’m just hoping that the Astros take Colin Moran, so that we can find out what this front office really thinks about the “best three prospects” in the draft, and maybe get more insight into how they feel about stuff vs. polish and pitcher vs. hitter.

    but, yeah, if they take someone other than one of those three, i’ll be skeptical.

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  6. GBTS

    I knew one kid in college who sold Adderall my freshman year. I think I saw two, maybe three people tops use it to study. Once I moved off campus I never saw it or heard about it again.

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  7. Nate

    I prefer the Cubs take Appel simply because to me he seems like more of a “sure thing” to be a #2-3 in a ML rotation. He was one of the top talents last year, and has done nothing but improve. Gray emerged this year. I’d be fine if they got him, I just think Appel is more likely to be really good. Money should not matter at all to the Cubs. However, if the Astros get Appel, I’d be happy to see the Cubs get Gray more cheaply and then spend the extra on Manea in the second round. Even tho he’s hurt, just rehab him. He was a top 10 talent earlier in the year. 2 pitchers for the price of 1! Theo seems to like injured pitchers anyway.

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  8. Akabari

    I just finished college in December, I never did Adderall either. But I could tell it was finals time because I would get mass texts of either “Hey, I need Adderall” or “I have Adderall for sale!” and most people I know who have a prescription for it honestly sell most of what they get.
    I asked my roommate about it (he LOVES the stuff) and he basically said that he would imagine someone like Gray was probably just taking it because he’s addicted. That it’s really, really hard to stop cold turkey. Again, this is all second hand from my roommate, but he says it’s basically like super coke so its hard as hell to quit. So that’s possible, too.
    And as for the draft, I don’t think its a big deal at all, and even people who react poorly, its like everyone here said yesterday. Its not steroids so everyone will forget in a month.

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  9. Author
    GW

    Nate wrote:

    He was one of the top talents last year, and has done nothing but improve.

    yeah, that’s what impresses me most, as well. i would have bet on him slipping this year after he opted not to sign.

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  10. Author
    GW

    Akabari wrote:

    someone like Gray was probably just taking it because he’s addicted. That it’s really, really hard to stop cold turkey.

    that’s really interesting. i didn’t know that.

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  11. shawndgoldman

    My preference would be Appel, but that’s a preference borne out of nothing but my relative ignorance and the much higher name recognition for Appel. So, nothing, basically.

    The performance of cobbled-together pitching rotations the last two seasons makes me wonder if the dearth of pitching prospects is really an issue for the team. We keep trying to figure out who will fill out the rotation when Soler, Almora, et al. make it to the bigs… but this front office has shown an excellent (albeit short-term) track record of finding bargain SP’s on the FA market. Could that continue? If so, maybe hitting is what the team really needs to develop.

    I suppose even with all that, you’d like to have the one or two aces on your staff for the playoffs.

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  12. Nate

    I can imagine the Cubs rotation next year being: F7, Wood, Appel, Baker (I bet the re-sign him affordably), and some combo of Villanueva and another FA that they sign. There’s clearly no one currently in AAA or AA who could be there. I bet Vizcaino ends up in the bullpen. I guess they could also acquire someone at the deadline this year for Garza. So yea, they need to draft either Appel or Gray.

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  13. dmick89

    @ GW:
    I doubt any teams are swayed by the report, but I still think it costs him some money in the draft. We’ll never know if that was true or not, unless he ends up signing way over slot.

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  14. Nate

    @ shawndgoldman:

    Well yea, I think it would be worse because a.) my scenario is predicated on re-signing Baker cheaply, which is no guarantee, and b.) Villanueva is not a 200 IP guy anyway, so that really only leaves 2 legit full-season starters. Except, wait I forgot Edwin Jackson because he’s sucked this year, (dying laughing). So yea, throw him in there. I just think the years of control, affordability, and talent they’re likely to get from Appel sort of necessitate drafting him if they want to contend 2014-2017. But I imagine they are smart enough to figure something out. If Bryant is Ryan Braun, then go for it. I just have no idea. Appel seems the safest bet in a clear area of need, so it seems hard to pass that up for me. But I don’t really know that much about any of these players.

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  15. Suburban kid

    You kids and your new fangled amphetamines. We had NoDoz. I only used pharaceutical level speed in college once. I’m not sure if it was dexedrine or benzedrine but it was fucking awesome. This was not for studying, just for the hell of it. I was scared shitless of its allure however and never asked my roommate for another tablet lest I become addicted like Gray.

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  16. dmick89

    Law’s 20-80 grades for Gray:

    Player Grades
    PRESENT FUTURE
    Fastball 80 80 — —
    FB Movement 45 45 — —
    Command 50 60 — —
    Control 60 60 — —
    Slider 65 70 — —
    Changeup 50 55 — —
    Feel for Pitching 55 60

    Appel

    Player Grades
    PRESENT FUTURE
    Fastball 65 70 — —
    FB Movement 50 50 — —
    Command 60 60 — —
    Control 65 65 — —
    Slider 60 65 — —
    Changeup 65 70 — —
    Feel for Pitching 65 70

    There’s really quite a bit of difference between these two pitchers based on these grades. I think it’s important to point out that while Gray can hit 94-100 mph, he sites in the 94-97 range and can occasionally hit 100. Appel isn’t far behind. He pitches in the mid 90s and can hit 98 on occasion.

    I think the Cubs organization can more use the increased certainty you get from Appel. Like 424, I’m fine with any of the top 4 or 6 players, but I think the starting pitching in the minor leagues is even worse than a lot of people think. Ben Wells has a long way to go if he’s going to be any good. Dillon Maples has shown next to nothing in his career so far.

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  17. dmick89

    I think Bryan is a step below the top 2. He’s got 70-80 power, but the only other skill Law has him being average or better is arm strength. He’s got too many sub 50 skills for me.

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  18. shawndgoldman

    @ Nate:

    I still agree with the instinct to go with Appel. As I said above, that’s probably what I’d do based on what little I know. It’s just something that I’ve been thinking about lately, as the Cubs have shown continued success in the rotation despite not having made huge investments there. (Or maybe my perception is off?)

    Maybe you need the 1 or 2 guys to anchor your rotation and you go find the guys to fill out the back end through free agency. (Which is effectively what they’ve done now.) That would be Appel’s role – to be one of “those guys” to anchor the top of the rotation as F7 and Garza are doing right now.

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  19. dmick89

    Nate wrote:

    I just think the years of control, affordability, and talent they’re likely to get from Appel sort of necessitate drafting him if they want to contend 2014-2017.

    This. Appel makes contending in the near-term more possible.

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  20. dmick89

    the one I really had a lot of hopes for this year was Vizcaino. The guy just can’t stay healthy. Always had that problem and two organizations were scared away because of it. I doubt those will be the only two in his career. A career that will probably be brief.

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  21. Author
    GW

    the red sox system seems like it’s loaded with pitching prospects. Allen Webster has been pretty successful at AAA. Workman, Barnes, Ranaudo, and to a lesser extent Drake Britton have been pretty good at AA. I wonder if the Cubs will try to acquire one of them. Workman (former Longhorn) in particular has great periphs and is not that well thought of by the scouts. he might not cost that much in a prospect for prospect swap.

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  22. josh

    Never used Adderall either. Never even knew anyone who did. Of course, that was 12 years ago. I did know people who huffed canned air, and some dudes who smoked opium, and a couple of guys who did LSD. Okay, they were all the same people.

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  23. Suburban kid

    Dude is so hopped up on Adderall that he couldn’t wait to get to the ballpark and he’s pitching in full uniform in his parents’ front yard.

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  24. Aisle424

    Since we’re admitting stuff about our performance enhancing drug usage in college, I’m with SK in that the most I ever took was Vivarin and NoDoz. It helped a little, I guess.

    My roommate stayed up almost all night studying and got like 2 hours of sleep. He woke up and took a Vivarin and went to take a shower. He came back and said he didn’t think it was working so he took another Vivarin. Then he went to breakfast and chugged a shitload of Mountain Dew. Right before he went to take the test, he came back to the room and took another Vivarin.

    When he came back from the test he was fucking bouncing off the walls. It was pretty hilarious.

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  25. dmick89

    While the Astros passed on Appel last year when the harder slot system was first instituted, instead signing No. 1 overall pick Carlos Correa at a lower rate than it would have taken to secure Appel, they may not let the Houston native Appel go again. There’s been some extra suggestion lately the Astros are seriously considering Appel — though University of Oklahoma pitcher Jonathan Gray, University of San Diego third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant and North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran reportedly are in the mix for them, as well. — Heyman

    I think the order in which they’re drafted is Appel, Gray to the Cubs and Bryant to the Rockies.

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  26. SVB

    @Whomever, last thread

    Remember when we used to get 200 comments a day?

    @Myles

    I don’t

    There have been 108 comments or more today, so we are getting there. Drugs bring out the comments.

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  27. Author
    GW

    @ Aisle424:

    I took a couple of NoDoz once when I was in high school, and ended up immobile on a bed with my heart feeling like it was going to beat out of my chest. First and last time for me.

    /lightweight

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  28. SVB

    I’m confused by GW.

    First, I thought the sudden flood in content from GW was because the semester was over, and, since I thought he was a prof, that explained why he’d have time to make so many posts in 24 hr. But, supposedly GW doesn’t have any college kid friends (or only one). That kind of argues against the prof idea, because even if he didn’t have college-aged “friends” he would certainly have students in his labs he could ask. Then I figured he was just hopped up on speed. But he claims not to know about the effects of Adderol…

    For the record, I know lots of college students. I think at least half of them “pep up” during finals. I’d say 85% know about Adderol, so I agree with GW’s friend. And I think about 2/3 smoke a lot of weed the rest of the time. (A lot, to me, is >2x/mo. I know, that’s a pretty conservative standard.)

    Now, for the rest of the OV commentary above about not using/knowing about Adderol, I can only say, since this is a sabermetrically oriented baseball blog, that we consider the self-selection present here. The type of person who might find some interest in the debate between the benefits of SIERA or FIP- or xyzpdqWAR might not necessarily be part of the same crowd as Jonathan Gray and the other Adderol disciples on campus. (dying laughing) As far as I know, only one of us regulars around here got have a worldly job driving a cab (though I suppose we should give SK some props for the Phaeton he used to drive).

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  29. Author
    GW

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  30. SVB

    FWIW (nothing) my rank is Appel, Bryant, Gray. I’m not really psyched about Bryant fitting the mold of a high K hitter, but hitting 100 on the radar gun is only good if your arm lasts. So I’d take the position player (and 3B is a plus) over the pitcher, for second place on my ranking.

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  31. dmick89

    @ SVB:
    The first day of the draft last year was our busiest day (by far). We’re not going to top that this year. The Cubs season sucked last year and we slowed down in August and then of course in the offseason. Berselius and I didn’t do the projections this year so we lost that traffic. We’re still doing fine, but the combination of the Cubs sucking and writing less has lost us some traffic.

    We just don’t post nearly as much as we did a year ago. I know Berselius and 424 are less interested in the team. So am I. I’ve had the neck issues for several months now and have been unable to do much of anything.

    I’m just thrilled that others have pitched in so much.

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  32. dmick89

    @ GW:
    Weird. It can’t be hard at this point. I hope the Cubs have 1-2 in the draft and aren’t yet indecisive. I can’t see any reason at this point to not know who you’re going to take when you pick that high in the draft.

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  33. dmick89

    I’ve never taken Adderal either. I never took any NoDoz or any of that when I was in school. I knew some that did, but they weren’t the best students. Neither was I when I first started, but NoDoz wasn’t going to help me back then. I’d convince myself that a night of heavy drinking was the best way to study for finals.

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  34. dmick89

    I think Sitrick was going to work on a 2nd round post, but I’m not sure if he’ll get it done. Not much has been talked about with regards to the Cubs 2nd pick.

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  35. SVB

    @ dmick89:
    For the first time ever, I check my fantasy team before I check the Cubs. This is a very hard team to get interested in. If Castro was doing better, if the pitching and half the hitters were cast offs, it might be easier. If Iowa had a single interesting prospect….

    I bet all Cubs blogs’ traffic is down.

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  36. dmick89

    @ GW:
    I think you can highlight 5-7 players ranked in the right range that might fit. You certainly couldn’t do it with any accuracy. Some players ranked high will slip past the 1st round. Probably not any top 10 prospects.

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  37. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    Does anyone think Sweeney can stick around? I’m trying to figure out where Cubs can make biggest upgrades next year, and OF and bullpen seem like the biggest, though really nobody on this team is that good (dying laughing)

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  38. dmick89

    Unlike other types of crimes, smartphone theft can be eradicated with a simple technological solution. – SF District Attorney

    Eradicated? Good luck with that.

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  39. Berselius

    dmick89 wrote:

    the one I really had a lot of hopes for this year was Vizcaino. The guy just can’t stay healthy. Always had that problem and two organizations were scared away because of it. I doubt those will be the only two in his career. A career that will probably be brief.

    He’s still got a long way to go until he’s Angel Guzman

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  40. Berselius

    @ dmick89:

    In principle, I’ve got time to write more right now for various reasons, but I’m on the road for 5 of the next eight weeks so that’s getting in the way a bit (dying laughing). I think this is the first time this week where I’ve been at my computer before midnight.

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  41. Chet Masterson

    It’s not important to me that Gray took Adderall, but I think it’s funny to consider the possibility that Gray is well aware he is going to be a top 3 pick with life changing money but is still cramming for finals. No one really thinks that’s possible, right?

    Gotta pass Zoology 210, yo.

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  42. Author
    GW

    @ Chet Masterson:

    well, his baseball season is still going (he pitches friday), so there could be an eligibility issue. even aside from that, though, I think it’s plausible that he would want to pass his classes.

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  43. dmick89

    Took my dog for a walk. A dunbass rabbit gets too close to her thinking if she just stands still, my dog won’t see it. Wrong. Dog ate rabbit. Whole fucking thing. Head and all. Rabbit was screaming. That shit was nasty. Fuckin cannibal.

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  44. Author
    GW

    @ dmick89:

    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

    wow. my dog is constantly chasing squirrels. i’ve promised her a steak dinner if she ever catches one, because there is just no way in hell that’s going to happen.

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  45. dmick89

    @ GW:
    We’ve had some baby rabbits in our yard and my daughter was worried she was going to catch one. I told her that she had been chasing rabbits for 13+ years and she still hasn’t caught one. She’s half blind and half deaf so I assured my daughter the rabbits had nothing to worry about. I didn’t think she had a chance to catch one

    Needless to say, I did not tell my daughter about this.

    I’ve seen her eat birds. Disgusting, but at least half the body isn’t hanging out of her mouth. It was just awful.

    I told my dog when she was done that I wasn’t mad, but I didn’t really want to look at her either.

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  46. Berselius

    @ GW:

    Back when our oldest dog could see squirrels to chase them, she would be completely baffled whenever they ran up a tree. She’d keep sniffing around it in circles, thinking it was just running around the other side (dying laughing).

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  47. MJK

    @ Berselius:

    My childhood dog managed to catch one squirrel in 12 years. The squirrel ran up our chain link fence and our dog just plowed into the fence. The squirrel fell into our yard and was promptly mauled.

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  48. Aisle424

    It’s weird, but my dog seems to know the difference between squirrels and rabbits and he trates them differently. If he sees a squirrel he tries to dart after it immediately and doesn’t give up on it until it is treed or otherwise out of sight. If he sees a rabbit, he tries sneaking up on it and tries pouncing if the thing lets him get close enough. But if the rabbit goes down an alley or something where it’s still catchable but off the path of where I’m walking, he just stares it down and walks with me without a hassle. I have to fucking DRAG him (and he’s 100 pounds) away from the tree with a squirrel in it.

    He also seems to alternately like chasing birds and not giving a damn about them, depending on the day. I don’t think he’ll ever catch anything. He’s way too slow.

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  49. SVB

    Our dog has killed 4 mongoose in his 5 years of life. I think that means he wins. Mongoose are evil, and have a bad disposition on top of that.

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  50. Edwin

    SVB wrote:

    Our dog has killed 4 mongoose in his 5 years of life. I think that means he wins. Mongoose are evil, and have a bad disposition on top of that.

    That’s not what Rudyard Kipling told me.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rikki-Tikki-Tavi

    Seriously though, are mongoose (is the plural mongeese?) really that bad? I’ve never seen a live one before.

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  51. Edwin

    On the wikipedia page for Mongoose:

    “Reproduction

    The mongoose emits a high-pitched noise, commonly known as giggling, when it mates. Giggling is also heard during courtship”

    Neat.

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  52. SVB

    @ Edwin:
    The giggling must work, because they reproduce quite well. Mostly here they live in tall grass and you see them darting across the road. But they are ferocious, which I guess is the idea behind them being snake hunters. I don’t know if that is true or not, or it you can domesticate them. They have wiped out a lot of ground-nesting birds, and our neighbors who have chickens hate hate hate mongoose. I just use mongoose and singular and plural, like sheep, but I don’t know if that is right.

    They were introduced to PR to control rats, but mongoose are active in the day, and rats aren’t, so it didn’t work. They carry a lot of rabies here, so that’s a problem. Our previous dog was attacked by a mongoose. The dog spun around in circles trying to dislodge the mongoose from its lip. Ever since, my wife has had a very strong hatred for mongoose and I think the new dog (the mongoose killer) picked up on that, because he doesn’t care about rabbits, squirrels, etc.

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