SG has finished his first batch of his CAIRO projections. He includes just about everyone so I've reduced it to the players I think we might see this coming season. I'll update this post as updates are made. He usually releases several versions so consider this the early version.
| Name | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA |
| Bryan LaHair | 521 | 29 | 1 | 25 | 51 | 131 | .274 | .349 | .499 | .366 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 576 | 35 | 1 | 24 | 51 | 128 | .261 | .334 | .469 | .348 |
| Brett Jackson | 455 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 49 | 138 | .243 | .332 | .411 | .329 |
| David DeJesus | 537 | 25 | 5 | 10 | 51 | 85 | .262 | .340 | .401 | .329 |
| Starlin Castro | 633 | 31 | 7 | 11 | 35 | 86 | .288 | .329 | .421 | .328 |
| Welington Castillo | 364 | 17 | 0 | 14 | 29 | 88 | .249 | .316 | .430 | .326 |
| Dave Sappelt | 576 | 28 | 5 | 9 | 42 | 88 | .273 | .332 | .398 | .324 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 496 | 26 | 1 | 20 | 33 | 117 | .247 | .300 | .441 | .319 |
| Luis Valbuena | 467 | 24 | 1 | 10 | 46 | 97 | .245 | .324 | .381 | .314 |
| Steve Clevenger | 385 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 57 | .260 | .323 | .376 | .312 |
| Josh Vitters | 461 | 24 | 1 | 13 | 23 | 79 | .253 | .299 | .402 | .307 |
| Ian Stewart | 339 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 34 | 87 | .216 | .302 | .384 | .304 |
| Ty Wright | 375 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 64 | .257 | .309 | .371 | .302 |
| Matthew Szczur | 382 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 62 | .243 | .302 | .349 | .292 |
| Logan Watkins | 529 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 47 | 119 | .234 | .310 | .326 | .290 |
| Darwin Barney | 524 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 64 | .259 | .303 | .346 | .289 |
| Jae-Hoon Ha | 475 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 85 | .247 | .289 | .354 | .284 |
| Tony Campana | 400 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 81 | .259 | .309 | .317 | .284 |
| Junior Lake | 480 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 135 | .229 | .273 | .342 | .272 |
LaHair's minor league dominance is still weighting heavily in this projection. I think he's probably closer to a .330 wOBA guy, but that's just me. He won't be a starter. It's no surprise once again that of the everyday players, Rizzo is projected to be the best hitter. It is a little disappointing that the Cubs best hitter isn't projected to be a .350 wOBA or higher hitter. For years the Cubs had Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee and we could always pencil them in for about .375 or so. Before them the Cubs had Sammy Sosa and we could expect anything from .360 to infinity. These are those Cubs. Brett Jackson is projected to be the 2nd best everyday hitter and it's likely he starts the season in AAA.
Due to Samardzija's history as a reliever, he's still projected for some relief appearances. Overall he's projected to start 16 games and appear in 48 overall. Obviously we know he'll more than likely be a starter all season, but I wanted to point this out since relieving is easier than starting (his projection will be a little higher overall than it would as a starter exclusively).
| Name | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | HBP | ERA | FIP |
| Carlos Marmol | 67 | 46 | 4 | 47 | 94 | 5 | 3.40 | 3.35 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 135 | 115 | 14 | 56 | 139 | 5 | 3.82 | 3.69 |
| Matt Garza | 150 | 132 | 18 | 49 | 143 | 5 | 3.71 | 3.69 |
| Arodys Vizcaino | 106 | 116 | 10 | 40 | 91 | 5 | 4.07 | 3.84 |
| James Russell | 71 | 71 | 9 | 22 | 58 | 2 | 3.94 | 4.03 |
| Jaye Chapman | 72 | 69 | 6 | 47 | 74 | 3 | 4.22 | 4.06 |
| Chris Rusin | 154 | 178 | 19 | 53 | 104 | 8 | 4.62 | 4.41 |
| Michael Bowden | 90 | 82 | 11 | 41 | 74 | 3 | 4.20 | 4.41 |
| Jeff Belliveau | 71 | 74 | 10 | 39 | 77 | 4 | 4.28 | 4.49 |
| Lendy Castillo | 36 | 44 | 3 | 22 | 29 | 3 | 4.78 | 4.57 |
| Casey Coleman | 122 | 130 | 15 | 53 | 84 | 4 | 4.79 | 4.61 |
| Esmailin Caridad | 66 | 71 | 9 | 34 | 56 | 3 | 4.89 | 4.70 |
| Alberto Cabrera | 114 | 145 | 13 | 71 | 93 | 6 | 5.36 | 4.93 |
| Brooks Raley | 142 | 190 | 19 | 63 | 89 | 7 | 5.07 | 4.94 |
| Rafael Dolis | 84 | 94 | 7 | 57 | 56 | 4 | 4.97 | 4.96 |
| Trey McNutt | 110 | 144 | 13 | 66 | 77 | 6 | 5.21 | 5.12 |
| Jacob Brigham | 127 | 168 | 23 | 81 | 96 | 6 | 6.18 | 5.89 |
The Cubs aren't very good at pitching, but we already knew that.
Comments
Hiroki Kurodo is open to a 1-year deal. I’d very much like the Cubs to sign this guy.
mb21Quote Reply
That awkward moment where you realize you’ve left four posts on a dead thread.
joshQuote Reply
Forgot to add a link to RLWY. It’s updated now.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
He got the qualifying offer though. Isn’t that a bad idea to sign him then? I feel like the Cubs should keep as much of the draft pool as they can.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I forgot about that. Yeah, I’d not waste a draft pick for a one-year deal and I wouldn’t really want to sign him longer. If the Cubs can get BJ Upton at a decent price I’d give that 2nd rounder up though.
mb21Quote Reply
I didn’t know the Astros were using a different logo
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
That looks like one of those SB Nation logos. Replace Houston with SB Nation and I couldn’t tell the difference. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Long distance runner, what you standing there for
WaLiQuote Reply
Soooo, there’s this. Phil Rogers speculating the Cubs should consider trading Castro for Upton.
http://sulia.com/channel/baseball/f/56f5c5e2-59c1-4062-bc79-e7376c82ba0f/?source=twitter
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
@ Rodrigo Ramirez:
No way. Castro is worth way more than Upton
WaLiQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I was hoping they would go back to the colt 45s
GWQuote Reply
In taking a cue from the Houston Texans, they should rename the team the Houston Houstonians.
joshQuote Reply
Supposedly the Mets are shopping Dickey. Can we sign him for the jokes?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Dickey tosses the ball into the spot…the batter takes Dickey back up through the middle!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
I think McCarthy would provide mor JAR (jokes above replacement)
WaLiQuote Reply
What happens when Dickey leaves one hanging up in the zone?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
WaLi wrote:
Get up, get off, get out of the door
mb21Quote Reply
Cubs put in a bid on Korean LHP Ryu Hyun-Jin. Looks like they’re one of four teams that did.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
His Twitters is the best thing to every happen to the internet since free porn.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Those balls are getting knocked around
BerseliusQuote Reply
GW wrote:
Most of that sentence was on a 78 RPM but those last two words were on a 33.
Carne HarrisQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
This too will be dwindled compared to the MVP year Ian Stewart is going to have next year.
FPOQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
I think the team JAR would get a multiplicative boost by having both. Like a JAR feedback loop.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Is that like a JAR-JAR?
Except that it won’t suck.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ FPO:
Indeed. No, but really, it’d be cool to add him to the rotation.
Jed Jam BandQuote Reply
One of the bazillion MLBTR items this morning suggests that the Cubs are looking at an extension for Samardzija.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Uhh…. He isn’t a Free Agent until 2016 at which point he will be 31 and he is coming off his first good season. Shouldn’t the Cubs wait to make sure he is truly TRANSFORMED! before signing him to a longer-term contract?
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Yes.
mb21Quote Reply
@ WaLi:
@ mb21:
Correct.
I’m hoping that they are going to wait until midseason to check his progress and then if they are serious about it, the extension should be like a Scott Baker or Ryan Vogelsong type deal where it’s still relatively cheap.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I would say that unless Samardzija is a bit better than last season he’s a guy the Cubs can live without. They’ve got him through is prime right now so why would you want to lock him up beyond his prime? If you’re not going to go out and sign free agents I see no reason to sign him to a long-term deal.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Like WaLi said F7 isn’t a free agent until 2016 so that’s 3 arb years they could save a bit of money on if they do this right. I think there is some value in it but honestly I’d rather they just go year-to-year and keep fishing him out as a trade chip.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Am I the only one that thinks they look like HS/College Unis?
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
The Cubs Jokes Above Replacement took a big hit last season when Ryan Dempster was traded. We didn’t have any more spot on Harry Caray impressions 🙁
jtsunamiQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
I think they look like Independent League unis.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
@ jtsunami:
There’s a couple of “Astros suck” jokes in there.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Yo Astros so shitty, they gots high school unis, and play in a similar style.
Something like that?
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
The way you told it requires a meme such as this…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think if Mish found this, he wouldn’t eat it.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvtLk4i6TmY
Nerds are powerful.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
A True Nerd would have also paired that with a skittlebrau brewing apparatus.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Just found this one via The Cub Reporter:
http://www.hallofstats.com/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I hope your foray into the fashion industry takes off, RC
http://tinyurl.com/b26opy8
BerseliusQuote Reply
Cubs offered a contract to Liriano
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I’ll buy an OV mug when I make my first million.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Anibal Sanchez wants $100MM.
Am I allowed to laugh? Or is it actually somewhat reasonable?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I wouldn’t trade Castro for Upton. But I would trade Shark for him. He had a very good season in 12 but I’m not sold on how long the transformation sticks. I might trade Barney for Upton too, even though I love watching Barney play. Not Barney and f7 together though. I think Barney has additional value in helping younger pitchers develop by being a good defender.
Not sure the BJ Upton love though. He’s not a great hitter except in spurts. He apparently has some attitude issues, but maybe that comes from the Tampa Hobbitt. If we sign him for 3 years, we may not even yet be that competitive by then, or his decline may be in full swing. I’d rather have the draft pick and see what Sappelt and LaHair do. Or sign Grady Sizemore or someone else.
SVBQuote Reply
New ranking shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/fangraphs-top-15-cubs-prospects.html
Aisle424Quote Reply
Liriano would be a pretty good pickup for the Cubs.
mb21Quote Reply